https://cpes.org.uk/om/files/original/5495ada44c2ede11fc08652da2594dd9.pdf 034a74696639bd2d3d70f51ac936e3ea Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Cambridge Economic Policy Review Volume 6 No. 1 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource April 1980 Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Text Any textual data included in the document Statistical Appendix Historical data and projections for the UK economy This Appendix presents historical data based on information available up to the end of January 1980, together with the results of three projections for 1980 onwards based on the CEPG model of the UK.* The tables show: A1-A4 Historical series for 1962-79 AS and A6 A base projection for 1980-85 A7 and A8 A projection for 1980-85 with real devaluation in 1981 A9 and A1 0 A projection for 1980-90 with real devaluation in 1981 and tariffs on imports from 1981 onwards Each projection illustrates the effects of pursuing a different set of balance-of-payments and demand management policies on the same set of external assumptions. These common assumptions are as follows: (%increase over previous year) 1980 1981-82 1983-85 1986-90 Volume index Developed countries' exports of manufactures 6 7 7 7 Prices denominated in currency World exports of manufactures 9 UK imports of oil 57 UK imports of basic materials 10.5 UK imports of food from non-EEC countries 11 Basic CAP prices 3 weighted-average 76 76 8.5 7.5 66 45 foreign 6 12 6 6 6 * A full account of the current version of the model, together with its main simulation properties, will be available in May 1980 in a revised edition of the technical manual (Technical Manual on the CEPG Model of the UK, by T. F. Cripps and K. J. Coutts, fifth edition) from the Department of Applied Economics, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge, CB3 9DE, UK, price £3.50. Policy assumptions Base projection Public expenditure is cut in real terms by 9% between 1979 and 1982, and maintained constant in real terms thereafter. The real burden of taxation is increased over the same three-year period. The nominal exchange rate is held constant at its February 1980 level. No formal targets are specified for the PSBR or the balance of payments. Devaluation in 1981 The exchange rate is devalued so as to secure a 14% improvement in real export competitiveness in 1981, and thereafter depreciates so as to offset domestic inflation compared with that in competitor countries. The devaluation is accompanied by a two-year incomes policy which restrains the increase in standard earnings to 15% in 1981 and 10% in 1982, after which free wage bargaining resumes. Public expenditure and taxation are adjusted to allow a deficit for the balance of payments on current account of £2500 million in 1981, gradually reducing thereafter. Tanffs and devaluation in 1981 Tariffs are imposed on imports of manufactures and services at the same time as the devaluation in 1981. The initial tariff rates are 15% on services, 20% on semi-finished manufactures and 30% on finished manufactures. The tariff rates are raised progressively after 1983, reaching levels of 36%, 48% and 72% respectively by 1990. Again there is a 14% real devaluation in 1981 accompanied by a two-year incomes policy, and there is also a further real devaluation of 5% in 1985. The CAP and EEC budget arrangements cease to apply to the UK as from 1981. The volume of exports is reduced by 3% in 1981 and 5% from 1982 onwards on account of tariffs imposed on UK exports to the EEC and other associated countries. Fiscal policy is adjusted to achieve the same target current account deficits as in the devaluation projection. Public expenditure is increased steadily in real terms. Tariff revenues are used to cut taxes on consumption and to subsidise investment. Notes and definitions The series presented here generally conform with official statistics but employ certain additional concepts not found in the national income accounts. In particular, production is classified into 'North Sea', 'public services' and 'other domestic output', and private disposable income is divided between 'wages and salaries', 'welfare benefits' and 'other private income' (the last item includes private rents and income from self-employment as well as company profits, interest, etc.). 43 Most series are presented in terms of 1975 purchasing power. Series 'at 1975 domestic purchasing power' represent money values divided by the deflator expenditure deflator. Series 'at 1975 export purchasing power' represent money values divided by the deflator for exports of goods and services excluding fuels. Expenditure, output and income Expenditures on GDP at 1975 market prices correspond exactly with Blue Book definitions, except for stockbuilding which includes the residual error between compromise and expenditure estimates of GDP. National income is defined as money domestic expenditure plus the current balance of payments, divided by the domestic expenditure deflator. The difference between national income and GDP at constant market prices therefore consists of net income from abroad plus the effect of changes in the domestic expenditure deflator relative to the GDP deflator (the terms-of-trade effect). Employment and unemployment Employment is defined as employees in employment, including HM forces, and unemployment as the annual average of monthly figures for UK wholly unemployed, excluding schoolleavers and adult students. Financial balances The private sector surplus includes the residual error between compromise and income estimates of GDP and, together with the public sector deficit, is measured before private sector payments of capital taxes. Costs and prices Money wage settlements are derived from CEPG's index of settlements. The real value of settlements is the real value of wage rates at the date of settlement. Earnings series refer to the whole economy. The weighted exchange rate is a weighted index of nominal rates for sterling in terms of other currencies (derived from the Smithsonian-based effective exchange rate index published in Economic Trends). Export competitiveness is defined as UK business costs, adjusted for sales taxes on exports, relative to the world price of manufactured exports, measured in common currency. Public sector accounts Indirect taxes are shown net of subsidies; direct tax includes income tax, corporation tax and national insurance contributions. Tax revenues associated with the North Sea - corporation tax on North Sea profits, Petroleum Revenue Tax and royalties - are shown as a separate series. Public sector property income comprises gross trading income after stock appreciation, rent (including the imputed charge for consumption of non-trading capital), dividends and interest. Expenditure on goods and services includes consumption, fixed investment and stockbuilding. Grants comprise current and capital grants to the private sector and current transfers abroad (including contributions to the EEC budget). Balance of payments Exports and imports of goods and services are shown in money terms divided by the deflator for non-fuel exports. They therefore include terms-of-trade or relative price effects vis-a-vis non-fuel exports. 'Other imports' comprise food, basic materials and services. Net income from abroad includes interest, profits, dividends and transfers. Net long-term capital comprises direct investment and official long-term capital flows. North Sea account This account shows the allocation of revenue from sales of North Sea oil and gas between operating costs, tax revenue to the UK government and post-tax profits to UK and foreign companies. 44 Tabl.e Al HistoricaL series 1962-1970 Expendi~ure. output. employment and prices -----------------------------1-9-6-2-----1-9-6-3-----1-9-6-4-----1-9-6-5-----1-9-6-6-----1-9-6-7-----1-9-6-8-----1-9-6-9-----1-9-7-0 Expendtture. output and income (.£biLLion. at 1975 market prices) Consumers' expenditure Publ. ilc consumption Private fixed investment Publ.tc fixed investment Sto:ckbuitdtng 47.6 16.6 7.3 5.8 1.3 49.7 16.9 7.3 6.0 1.5 51.2 1a7..51 7.0 2.8 52.0 17.6 8.9 7.4 2.4 53.1 1 3. 1 8.7 7.9 1.9 54.3 19.1 9.1 9.0 1.4 55.9 19.2 9.8 9.0 1. 8 56.2 18.8 10.4 a.5 2.4 57.7 19.1 10.7 8.7 2.2 Exports of goods & servs Imports of goods & servs 13.7 16.2 14.4 16.8 14.9 18.6 15.6 18.7 16.3 19.2 16.4 20.6 18.5 22.2 20.4 22.8 21.5 24.1 Gr~ss domestic product oubL{c services North Sea other domestic output 76.1 1o0..o9 65.2 78.9 1o1..o0 67.8 82.9 1o1..o1 71.8 85.1 1o1..o2 73.9 86.7 1o1..o9 74.8 88.8 1o1..o8 77.0 92.0 1o2..o0 80.o 93.8 1o1..o9 81.9 95.8 1o2..o2 83.6 Net t~come from abroad 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 Terms of trade effect 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.2 2.9 2.9 3.4 -N-a,t-io-n--aL---I-n-c-o-m-e--------------7-9--.0-----8--1-.6------8-5-.-7-----8-8-.-2-----8-9-.-9-----9-2-.-3-----9-5-.-2-·---9--7-.3------9-9-.9- EmpLoyment and unemployment tmttllons) Pubttc services Business empLoyment 3.5 19.4 .'3.5 19.4 3.6 19.7 3.6 19.9 3.9 19.8 3.8 19.4 3.9 19.1 3.9 19.1 4.1 18.8 Tota~ employment 22.9 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.7 23.2 23.0 23.0 22.8 U__n_e_m_p_L_o_y_m_e_n_t__________________o_._s______o_._s______0._.4_______0_.3_______0_._4_...,..____0_.5_______0_.6_______0_._6______0_.6_ Financial. balances (£billion. at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Private Pubtl'c -C-u-r-r-e-n-t sector surpLus sector deficit --b-al-.--o-f--p-a-y-m-e-n-t-s - - - - - - 2.5 2.2 -0-.4-- - - - - 3.3 3.0 -0-.3-- - - - 2.3 3.2 --0--.9-- - - - 2.5 2.6 --0--.1-- - - - - 3.0 2.7 -0-.3-- - - - 3.4 4.1 --0--.7-- - - - 2.5 3.0 --o--.-s- - - - - t. 4 0.4 -1-.0- - - - - - o1..o5 -1-.5- Costs and prices (X Increase over previous year) Reel. wage settLements Money wage settLements Average money earnings Con·umer prices Post-tax real. earnings -1.2 3.5 4.6 3.9 -0.3 0.1 2.5 4.9 1.9 3.3 3e2 6.8 7.0 3·5 2.8 -1.2 5.1 6.8 4.9 -0.4 -3.5 2.0 6.4 4.0 1.1 le3 Sel 6.1 2.6 2.8 -1.0 4.6 7.7 4e7 1.2 -2.4 4.1 7.1 5.7 0.3 5.5 13.1 12.7 5.9 5.0 ~ llndtces. 1975=100) ~ Wel~hted exchange rate 151.3 150.9 150.5 150.8 150.8 147.1 129.0 129.5 128.2 -E-x-o-o-r-*--c-o-m-p-~-t-t-t-l-v-e-n-e-s-s------1-0-1-.-9----1-0-2-.-2----1-0-3--.9----1-0-4--.7----1--0-7-.2-----1-0-6-.2-----9--7-.6-----1-0-0-.2-----1-0-2-.1- .j>.. Table A2 Historical. series 1962-1970 0\ Public sector accounts. balance of payments and North Sea 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Pub lt c sector accounts (£bitlton. at 1975 domestic purchasing pOW4tr) Net tndlrect taxes 8.8 9.1 9.9 10.6 11.3 11.8 12.8 14.2 14.4 Ot rec t tax & NI contrlbs 12.6 12.3 12.7 13.9 14-.8 16.3 17.3 17.9 19.3 North Sea tax revenue o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o Propert~ Income ------4-.0-------4-.2-------4-.4-------4-.7-------4-.-7------5-.1-------5-.5-------'5-.-7------5-.-5 Total receipts 25.4 25.7 27.1 29.2 30.8 33.2 35.7 37.8 39.2 Exp on Qoods & services 18.5 19.0 20.4 21.2 22.5 24.8 24.8 23.9 25.1 Grants 5.7 6.3 6.5 7.1 7.-4 8.6 9.8 to.o 10.1 Debt interest Total. outlays ------3-.4-------3-.4-------3-.4-------3-.5-------3-.-6------3-.-9------4-.1-------4-.-2------4-.1- 27.6 28.7 30.3 31.9 33.5 37.3 38.7 313.2 39.3 Ftnanclal deficit BorrowlnQ requirement 2.2 1.5 3.0 2.2 3.2 2.5 2.6 2.9 2. 7 2.2 4.1 4.2 3.0 2.8 0.4 -0.9 o.o -o.o Batance of payments (£biLLion. at 1975 export purchasing power) Non-fuel exports Exports of fuels 13.1 0.3 13.8 0.3 14.4 0.2 15.1 0.3 15.7 0.3 15.8 0.3 17.9 0.3 19.7 0.3 20.7 0.3 Imports: fue ts flntshed manufactures semt-flntshed mfs other imports 1.0 1.3 2.2 9.1 1. 0 1.5 2.4 9.4 t. 1 1. 9 3.0 10.0 1.1 2.3 2.8 9.9 1. 1 2 ·.3 3.2 9.7 1.2 2.9 3.3 9.7 1.2 3.5 4.1 to.o 1. 3 3.6 4.3 10.3 1.2 3.9 4.3 10.8 Net income from abroad ------o-.-s------0-.-6------o-.-s------0-.6-------0-.-4------0-.-3------0-.-2------0-.-6------0-.-7 Current balance 0.3 0.3 -o.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.6 -0.5 1.0 1.4 Net tonQ-term capital -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.7 -B-a-s-t-e.-b-a-l-a-n-c-e------------------o-.-t-------o-.-1-------1-.-4-------o-.-s-------0-.-1-------1--.0-------0--.7-------0-.4-------o-.-8 North Sea account {£bi llton. at 1975 e.xport purchasing power) Value of sales Qper at t nq costs ------o-.o-------o-.o-------o-.o-------o-.o-------o-.o-------o-.o-------o-.-o------o-.-o------o-.1o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o UK tax revenue o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o UK post-tax profits o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o 0 .1 Post-tax profits abroad o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o Tab\. e A3 Historical series 1971-1979 Expenditure. output. employment and prices -E-x-p-e-n-d-i-t-u-r-e-. --o-u-t-p-u-t--a-n-d--in-c-o-m-1-e9-7-1(-.£-b--il-1l-9io-7-n2-. --a-t-1-91-79-37-5--m-a-1r-9k-7e-4t --p-r-ic-1-e9-s7-)5-----1-9-7-6-----1-9-7-7-----1-9-7-8-----1-9-7-9 Consumers' expenditure Public consumption Private fixed investment Pub,l. t'c fixed investment Stockbutldtng 59.6 19.6 1 1. 1 8.6 0.7 63.0 20.5 11.8 7.9 t.4 65.9 21.4 12.2 8.9 3.3 64.4 21.7 11.7 8.9 1.7 63.7 23.0 11.5 9.0 -1."5 63.9 23.5 11.8 8.8 -0.1 63.3 23.3 12.6 7.6 t. 1 66.7 23.6 13.7 6.8 t. 2 69.4 24.3 13. 1 6.6 2.4 Exports of qoods & servs 23.0 23.3 26.1 27.8 27.1 29.6 31.7 32.3 33.1 Imports of goods & servs-----2-5-.2------2-7-.-7-----3-0-.-5-----3-1-.-3-----2-9-.-0-----3-0-.-2--·---3-0-.4------3-1-.-6-----3-5-.-0 Gross domestic product 97.4 100.2 107.4 105.0 103.9 107.3 109.1 11.2. 7 113.9 public servtces 12.6 13.0 13.5 13.7 14.8 15.1 15.0 14.8 14.9 North Sea o.1 0.1 o.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.2 3.2 other domestic output 84.7 87.1 93.8 91.1 89.0 91.5 92.5 95.8 95.8 Net income from abroad Terms of trade effect National income 0.5 3.7 101.6 0.4 4.3 105.0 1. 2 1. 8 110.5 1.2 -1.9 104.3 0.3 o. 0 104.2 0.4 -0.6 107.1 -0.7 -0.3 108.1 -o.a 0.'3 112.8 -1.8 2.2 114.3 EmploMment and unemployment (millions) Public services Business employment 4.2 18.2 4.4 18.1 4.5 18.5 4.6 18.6 5.0 18.1 5.2 17.7 5.2 17.8 5.1 1'3.0 5.1 18.0 Total emplo)lment 22.5 22.5 23.0 23.1 23.0 22.9 23.0 23.0 23.1 Unemplo)lment o.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 1. 4 1. 4 1. 3 Financial balances (£billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Private sector surplus Public sector deflcit Current bal of PdMments 3.8 1.8 2.0 4.2 3.8 0.3 3.9 5.2 -1.3 3.1 7.2 -4.1 a7..2a -1.6 7.2 7.9 -0.7 5.4 5.2 0.2 7.0 4.9 6.2 6.3 0.7 -1.4 Costs and prices {% increase over previous year) Real wa~e settlements Mone.v waQe settlements AveraQe mone)l earnings Consumer prices Post-tax real earntn~s 5.3 13.9 11.9 8.4 3.2 4.5 11.2 12.3 6.5 6.3 0.7 9.6 12.6 8.6 2.5 -1.7 15.8 20.9 17.2 0.5 4.6 32.3 30.4 23.7 1. 6 -2.1 16.9 15.3 15.5 -1.3 -4.7 8.8 9.8 15.0 -3.2 3.?. 11.5 13.4 8.4 6.5 6.9 16.4 15.4 11.9 5.2 {lndlces. 1975=100) Wetghted exchange rate -"."."J Export competitiveness 127.9 106.9 123.3 108.3 111.8 100.1 108.3 95.6 100.0 100.0 84.7 94.8 80.4 96.0 ~ 1.6 1oo.o 87.8 109.9 +>- TabLe A4 HtstQrlcal serles 1971-1979 00 Public sectQr accounts9 baLance of payments and North Sea 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 Public sector accounts (£biLlion, at 1975 dQmesttc purchasing power) Net Indirect taxes Direct tax & NI contrtbs North Sea tax rev~nue Propertv income 13.8 1o9..o0 5.5 13.2 1o8..o6 ,5.7 13.0 1o9..o8 6.5 10.6 2o1..o9 6 .. 5 10.4 2o3..o5 6.3 11.3 2o3..7t 7.4 12.8 22.9 0.2 7.4 13.6 22.5 0.4 7. 4 15.7 21.8 0.8 7.4 Total receipts 38.3 37.6 39.3 38.9 40.2 42.5 43.2 43.8 45.7 Exp on QQOds & services Grants Debt { ntere st 26.0 10.3 3.9 26.ll11· 1 3.9 28.6 11.5 4.5 29.7 11.4 5.0 32.6 11.6 4.8 32.3 12.7 5.3 29.6 13.3 5.5 2q.c:; 14.8 5.7 30.3 15.4 6.3 Total outla)ls 40.1 41.ll- 44.5 46.1 49.0 50.4 48.4 so.t 52.0 Financial deficit 1.8 3.8 5.2 7.2 8.a 7.9 5.2 '5.2 6.3 -BB-oa-lr-ar o-nw-c-ei n-g-o-f -r e-pq-au-v-imr-ee-mn-t-es -n-t(-£-b-t L--t t-o-n-9-2-. 4-a-t --1-9-7-35-. 3-e-x-p-o-r-t-6-p. 3-u-r-c-h-a-s-8i n-. o-g--p-o-w-1e-0r-).-5------7-.-9------4-. 6-------5-.-9------7-.-2 Non-fuel exports Exports of fuels 22.2 0.4 22.4 0.4 2o5..2s 27.0 0.9 26.4 0.7 2 8t ..o7 30.4 1.4 30.7 t. 5 30.9 2.6 Imports: fueLs finished manufactures semi-finished mfs other imports Net income from abroad 1.6 4.4 4.0 11 .1 o.s 1.6 5.6 4.4 11.4 o.s 2.0 7.3 5.6 13.4 1.2 5.1 7.4 6.9 13.6 1.2 4.0 7.3 5.4 12.4 0.3 4.4 7.7 5.9 12.8 0.4 3.6 8.5 6.2 12.6 -0.7 3.1 9.3 6.6 1 1 .8 -0.7 3.4 10.2 7.4 12.1 -1.8 Current baLance Net Lonq-term capital Basic balance 2.0 -o.8 1.2 -o0..o3 0.3 -1.3 -2.4 -3.7 -4.0 -0.9 -4.9 - 1o..6t -1.5 -0.7 -0.3 -1.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 -0.3 ·'). 4 --1o..48 -2.2 North Sea account (£billton. at 1975 export purchasing pQwer) Value of sales o.t 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 1. 9 2 ·.2 .3.7 Operating costs UK tax revenue UK post-tax profits Post-tax profits abroad o.o o.o oo..ot oooo....ooot oooo....1ooo oooo....1ooo o.t o.o o0..2o 0.1 0.1 0o..o6 0.2 0.2 1.2 0.3 0.2 0 · .3 l. 2 o.~ 0o..84 1.5 0.9 TabLe A5 Base projection Expenditure. output, empLoyment and prices -----------------------------1-9-7-9----1-9-8-0------1·9-8-1-----1-9-8-2-----1-9-8-3-----1-9-8-4-----1-9-8-5 Expenditure. output and income (.£btLLion, at 1975 market prices) Consumers' expenditure Public consumption Private fixed investment Public fixed investment Stockbuitdtng 69.4 24.3 13.1 6.6 2.4 66.8 23.5 12.5 6.2 -1.3 67.0 22.9 10.9 6.1 -1.9 68.3 22.2 10.2 5.9 -0.4 70.4 22.2 9.9 5.9 0.3 72.5 22.2 9.6 5.9 0.4 74.5 22.2 9.4 5o..9s Exoorts of qoods & servs 33.1 32.6 31.8 31.2 30.8 30.5 30.4 Imports of qoods & servs-----3-5-.0------3-3-.4------3-3-.6------3-5-.6------3-7-.9------4-0-.1------4-2-.4- Gross domestic product 113.9 107.0 103.2 101.9 101.6 101.1 100.6 publtc services 14.9 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.5 11.5 North Sea 3.2 3.8 4.4 4.d 5.0 5.0 4.7 other domestic output 95.'3 88.7 84.8 83.6 83.1 82.6 82.3 "'Jet income from abroad Terms of trade effect National income -1.8 2.2 11 4.1 -2.2 2.5 107.3 -2.1 3.4 104.5 -2.0 4.6 104.5 -1.7 s.7 105.6 -1.9 6.7 105.9 -2. 1 7.6 106.1 Employment and unempLoyment {m{Ltlons) Pub\.lc services Business employment 5.1 18.0 4.9 17.5 4.8 16.9 4.6 16.5 4.6 16.?. 4.6 15.9 4.6 15.7 To t a t e "'p t o .vm en t 23.1 22.4 21.7 21.1 ?0.8 20.6 20.~ Unemplovment 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 F{nanclal baLances (.£bl\.tion. at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Private sector surplus 4.9 6.9 8.3 7.3 f) .· 7 6.4 6.2 Public sec tor deflctt 6.3 7.4 8.8 9.1 9.8 11· 1 12.6 -C-u-r-r-e-n-t--b-a-t--o-f--p-a-y-m-e-n-t-s-------1--.4-------0--.6--------0-.5-------1--.7-------3--.1--------4-.7--------6-.5- Costs and prices {% increase over previous year) Real wage settlemeni-s t4onev wage settLements Average moneM earnings Consumer prices Post-tax reat earnings 6.9 16.4 15.4 11.9 5.2 leO 17.7 20.1 1 9.1 1.2 1.0 15.7 17.6 12.6 3.6 1.. 0 13.3 16.6 10.9 4.3 1.0 11. 3 t4.3 9.8 4.1 1 .. 0 10.1 12.7 8.8 3.6 1.0 9.2 11.5 7.9 3.3 (Indices. 1975=100) \""0" We ilgh ted exchange rate Export competitiveness 87.8 109.9 94.0 122.6 94.0 129.0 94.0 134.1 94.0 139.0 94.0 142.6 Q4.0 145.1 V1 Table A6 Base project ton 0 Public sector accounts, balance of payments and North Sea 1979 1980 1981 1982 198:1 1984 1985 Pub l tc sec tor accounts (J:btllton. at 1975 domestic purchas lng power) Net Indirect taxes 15.7 16.0 15.6 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.3 Direct tax & NI contrtbs North Sea tax revenue 2o1..8a 20.5 t. 7 20.5 2.1 21.0 2.7 21.3 3.2 21.5 3.4 21.7 3.4 Propertv income ------7-.4-------6-.5-------5-.9-------5-.-6------5-.-5------5-.-3------5-.-2 Total receipts 45.7 44.7 44.1 44.9 45.8 46.3 46.7 Exp on qoods & services 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.3 31.1 31.7 32.3 Grants 15.4 15.5 16.6 17.7 1 9. 6 19.4 20.5 Debt interest ------6-.-3------6-.-3------6-.-0------6·-.0-------6-.·0------6--.2-------6-.5- Total outlays 52.0 52.1 52.8 54.0 55.7 57.4 59.3 Ftnancial deficit Borrowtnq requirement 6.3 7.2 7.4 7.2 8.8 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.8 10.1 11· 1 11.4 12.6 12.9 Balance of payments (J:blltton, at 1975 export purchasing power) Non-fuel exports Exports of fuels 30.9 2.6 29.8 4.6 28.7 5.0 27.9 5.3 27.4 5.4 27.1 5.3 27.1 5.1 Imports: fuels finished manufactures semi-finished mfs other Imports 3.4 1 o.2 7.4 12.1 3.6 10.4 7.0 11.5 2.6 10.9 7.1 11. 1 2.1 12.0 7.9 10.9 1.8 l 3. 2 8.6 10.8 1.8 14.2 9.1 10.8 2.0 15.3 9. 7 10.9 Net income from abroad Current balance Net lonq-term capital Baste balance ------1--.8--------2-.-5-------2-.-5--·----2-.-4-------2-.-2-------2--.4-------2--.8- -1.4 -0.6 -0.6 -2.1 -3.9 -6.0 -8.4 -o.a -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 -2.2 -1 .4 -1.5 -3.3 -5.1 -7.5 -10.1 North Sea account (£billion. at 1975 export purchasing power) Value of sates QperatinQ costs UK tax revenue UK post-tax profits Post-tax profits abroad 3.7 0.4 o.a 1.5 0.9 5.9 0.4 1.9 2.1 1. 5 6.8 o.s 2.5 2.0 t. 8 7.3 0.6 3.3 1e 7 1.8 7. 6 0.7 4.0 1. 5 1.4 7.6 0.7 4.3 1.3 1.3 7.2 0.7 4o..5q 1. 1 .. i Table A7 Devaluation In 1981 Expenditure. output. employment and prices 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Expenditure. output and Income (Ebittton. at 1975 market prices) Consumers' expenditure Oubltc consumption Private fixed investment Public fixed investment Stockbuitdlng 69.4 24.3 13.1 6.6 2.4 66.8 23.5 12.5 6.2 -1.3 64.2 23.5 11.3 6.3 -1.4 65.4 23.6 11.3 6.5 1.7 57.1 23.5 11.1 6.4 2.2 Exports of goods & servs Imports of qoods & servs 33.1 35.0 32.6 33.4 33.2 32.3 35.2 34.6 37.0 36.4 Gross domestic product public services North Sea other domestic output Net income from abroad Terms of trade effect National Income 113.9 14.9 3.2 95.8 -t .a 2.2 114.3 107.0 14.5 3.8 88.7 -2.2 2.5 107.3 .104.9 14.3 4.4 86.2 -2.6 0.6 102.8 109.1 14.2 4.8 90.1 -3.0 1. 6 107.6 111.2 14.1 5.0 92.?. -?..1 1. 6 110.1 Empl~Mment and unemployment (millions) Public services Business employment 5.1 18.0 4.9 17.5 4.9 16.9 4.8 1 o.9 4.8 16.9 Total. employment 23.1 22.4 21.8 21.7 21.7 Unemployment 1.3 1. 9 2.5 2.7 2. 9 Financial balances (Ebtttion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Private sector surplus Public sector deficit Current bat of pavments 4.9 6.3 -1.4 6.9 7.4 -0.6 7.8 8.9 -1.1 5.8 6.6 -0.8 5.6 - o6 ..1s Costs and prices (% increase over previous year) Real waqe settlements Money wage settlements Averaqe money earnings Consumer prices cost-tax real earnings 6.9 16.4 15.4 11.9 5.2 1.0 17.7 20.1 19.1 1.2 -7.1 9.2 14.5 17.8 -2.3 -4.7 5.9 10.8 10.4 1. 2 10.5 ?.3.1 1 7. 5 11.8 4.1-l (Indices. 1975=100) .V....l. Weighted exchange rate Export competitiveness 87.8 109.9 94.0 122.6 73.6 105.1 70.7 1os. 1 66.9 105.1 1984 68. 1 23.1 11· 1 6.3 1· 1 38.6 37.2 111.0 13.9 5.0 92.1 -2.7 1. 0 .109.3 4.8 16.8 21.6 3.2 7.6 7.9 -0.3 6.2 25.5 27.0 19.0 5.9 59.9 .105.1 19~5 69.0 22.2 10.6 5.9 0.6 40.1 38.3 110.1 13.5 4.7 91.8 -2o..5s 108.1 4.6 16.6 ?1.3 3.6 s7..o7 -0.2 1.2 24.5 26.4 22.0 1.9 52.0 105.1 Vl Table AS Devalua~lon ln 1981 tv Publfc sec~or accounts. baLance of payments and North Sea 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Publt c sec~or accounts (.£billion. at 1975 domes~lc purchas lng power) Net' lndtrec~ taxes 15.7 16.0 15.5 16.1 16.4 16.3 16.2 Oi rec t ~ax & Nl con~rtbs 21.8 20.5 19. 1 19.1 19.7 20.5 21.6 North Sea ~ax revenue o.8 1.7 4·6 3.5 4.3 4.6 4a8 Propert~ Income -----7--.4-------6-.5-------6-.4-------7-.-8------7-.-6------6-.-7------6-.-2 To~al recetp~s 45.7 44.7 43.6 46.4 48.1 48.1 48.8 Exp on qoods & services 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.9 31.4 31.7 31.1 Gran~s 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.7 17.7 18.8 Debt ln~erest ------6-.3------6--.3------6--.5----·--6-.2------6--.0---·---6-.4-------6-.9- To~al outlays 52.0 52.1 52.5 53.1 54 .t 55.9 56.8 Ftnanclat deflct~ Borrowing requirement 6.3 7.2 7.4 7.2 8.9 9.2 6.6 6.9 6.1 6.4 7.9 8.1 8.o 8.2 Balance of payments (.£billion. at 1975 export purchasing power) Non-fuel exports Exports of fuel.s 30.9 2.6 29.8 4.6 30. 1 5.8 31.9 6.0 33.6 6.3 35.1 6.4 36.7 6.3 Impor~s: fuels fl~lshed manufactures semi-finished mfs other Imports 3.4 10.2 7.4 12.1 3.6 10.4 7.0 t 1.5 3.2 10.9 7.6 12.6 2.9 11.8 8.5 12.4 2.9 12.7 9.2 12.6 3.0 13.5 9.5 13.0 3.3 14.2 9.8 13.2 Ne~ Income from abroad -1.8 -2.5 -3.0 -3.2 -3.0 -3.0 -2.8 Current balance Net lonq-term capl~al Baslc balance --o1..4a -2.2 -0.6 -0.7 -1.4 -1.2 -t.l -2.3 --0o..9a -1.7 -0.6 -0.9 -1.5 -0.3 -1.4 -1.7 -0.3 -1· 7 -1.9 North Sea account (.£bllllon. at 1975 export purchasing power) Value of sales 3.7 5.9 7.8 8.2 8.6 8.8 8.6 Operating costs UK ~ax revenue UK post-tax profits Post-tax profits abroad 0.4 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.4 1.9 2.1 1.5 0.5 2.9 2.3 2.1 0.5 3.7 2.0 2.0 0.6 4.7 t.8 1.6 0.6 5.2 t.5 1.5 0.6 5.5 1.2 1.4 Table A9 Tariffs and devaluatlon In 1981 Expenditure,. output,. employment and prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------:------------------------1-9-7-9-----1-9-8-0-----1-98-1-----1-9-8-2------19-8-3------1·9-8-4-----1-9-8-5-----1-9-90- Expenditure, output and income (£biLLion, at 1975 market prices) Consumers' expenditure Public consumption Pr tv ate fixed Investment Public fixed tnvestment Stockbulldlng 69.4 24.. 3 13.1 6.6 2.4 66.8 23.5 12.5 6.2 -1.3 69.3 23.6 11.5 6.5 0.9 71.4 24.4 12.7 7.2 4.0 76.3 24.9 13.6 7.7 4.4 78.7 25.4 14.7 8.2 3.3 79.5 25.9 15.8 8.7 2.8 99.7 2~.6 20.6 11.1 3.7 Exports of qoods & servs Imports of goods & servs Gro'ss domestic product pub Ll c services North Sea other domestic output 33.1 35.0 113.9 14.9 3.2 95.8 32.6 32.6 34.1 35.8 37.3 39.1 49.2 ---3-3-.4------3-2-.-7-----3-4-.3------3-6-.-3-----3-7-.1------3-7-.-3-----4-5-.-8 107.0 111.7 119.4 126.4 130.5 134.5 167.1 14.5 3.8 14.6 4.4 15.0 4.8 15.4 5.0 1s5..o7 16.0 4.7 17.6 4.7 88.7 92.7 99.6 106.1 109.9 113.8 144.8 Net t ncome from abroad Terms of trade effect National. income -1.8 2.2 114.3 -2.2 2.5 107.3 -2.0 1. 0 110.7 -2.9 2.2 118.8 -2.5 2.5 126.4 -2.6 2.1 129.9 -2.7 0.6 132.4 -3o..o6 163.6 EmpLoyment and unempLoyment (miLLions) Public services Business empLoyment 15a..1o 4a9 17.5 5.0 17.3 5.1 17.5 5.3 17.9 5.4 18.1 5. 5 18.2 6.0 13.8 TotaL emplovment 23.1 22.4 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.4 23.6 24.9 Unemplo"ment 1.3 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1. 8 1.3 Flnanctat baLances (£billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Prtvate sector surpLus 4.9 6.9 7. 1 4.7 4.9 6.3 7.3 8.9 Public sector deflctt C--u-r.r-e·n--t -b-·a-l--o-f--p-a-y-m--e-n-ts- --- -- 6.3 --1--.-4--- 7.4 ----0-.-6- --- 8.3 ---1--.2-- - -- ---o5-..-86-- - 5.5 ----0-.-6- 6.7 7.6 9.1 -......----0-.-3-------0-.-3-------0-.1- Costs and prices (% t ncrea se over previous year) Real waqe settlements Monev was:~e sett tements Average money earnings Consumer prices Post-tax real earnings 6.9 16.4 15.4 11.9 5.2 1.0 17.7 20.1 19.1 1.2 -3.1 9.4 16.3 9.8 4.4 -5.4 5,.5 11.2 11.3 -0.2 6.6 14.9 13.4 6a6 6.3 6.2 19.3 20.4 14a2 5.5 1. 2 20.4 22.7 20.4 t. 9 t.o 16.9 19.6 15.8 3.3 (Indtces, 1975=100) wVl Weiqhted exchanqe rate Export competitiveness 87.8 109.9 94.0 122.6 71.1 105.1 67.4 105.1 65.5 105.1 61.0 105.1 to5o1..o3 29.5 100.0 Vl Tabl.e A10 Tariffs and devaluation tn 1981 .j::>. Publ.lc sector accounts. batan~e of payments and North Sea --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1-9-7-9-----1-9-8-0-----1-9-8-1------1-9-8-2-----1-9-8-3------1-9-8-4----·1-9-8-5--·---1-9-9-0 Publtc sector· accounts (£bll.Lton. at 1975 domestic pure has I ng p ow4Jr) Net lndtrect- taxes 15.7 16.0 13.6 13.6 12.1 12.9 13.4 tt.t Otrect tax & Nl contrlbs 21.8 20.5 22.1 23.6 25.3 26.4 27.1 31.7 North Sea tax revenue o.8 1.7 2.8 3.8 4.9 5.3 5.8 8.9 Propertu Income ----·-7-.4------6--.5------7-.-2------9-.-3---·-1-0-.-1------9-.-7-----·9-.-8-----1-4-.-6 TotaL receipts 45.7 44.7 45.8 50.2 52.4 54.3 56.1 66.3 Exp on goods & services 30.3 30.2 32.2 34.. 0 36.0 38.0 39.2 48.6 Grants 15.4 1s.s 16.1 15.9 16.4 17.0 17.6 19e7 Debt Interest -----6--.3------6--.3------5-.-8------6-.-0------5-.-5------6-.-0------6-.-8------7-e-l Total outlays 52.0 52.1 54.0 55.8 57.9 61.0 63.7 75.4 Ftnanctal. deficit 6.3 7.4 8.3 5.6 5.5 6.7 7.6 9.1 -B-o-r-ro·-w-i-n-g--r-e-q-,u-t-r-em--e-n-t---------7-.-2------7-.-2------8-.-5------5-.9-------5-.7-------6-.9-------7-.8-------9-.3- Balance of payaents (Ebil.tlon. at 1975 export purchasing power) No n- f u e l. e x po r t s Exports of fuels 30.9 2.6 29.8 4.6 29.4 5.9 30.7 6.0 32.3 6.2 33.9 6.3 35.8 6.5 45.8 8.7 Imports: fueLs finished manufactures semi-finished mfs other imports 3.4 10.2 7.~ 12.1 3.6 10.4 7.0 11.5 3.8 10.0 7.9 12.8 3.7 9.9 8.7 12.5 4.0 10.5 9.4 12.8 4.4 10.7 9.7 13.1 5.3 10.5 10.2 13.9 to.c; 11.7 13.9 15.4 Net lncome from abroaj -1.9 -2.5 -2.1 -2.8 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6 -3.2 Current balance Net tonq-term capital. Basic bal.ance -1.4 -o.a -2.2 -0.6 -0.7 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -2.2 -o.a -0.6 -1.4 -0.6 -0.6 -1.1 -0.3 -o.8 -1.2 -0.3 -1.1 -1.4 -o.t -0.7 -0.9 ---~-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------·-- North Sea account (£btLl.ton. at 1975 export purchasing power) Val.ue of saLes 3.7 5e9 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.6 8.6 1 t. l Operating costs 0.4 0.4 0.5 o.s o.s o.5 0.4 0.3 UK t a.x revenue o.8 1.9 2.9 3.7 4.6 5.1 5.6 7.9 UK post-tax profits 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.8 t.s 1.2 1.s ----. t.sPost-tax profits abroad 0.9 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 ----------------------------------------------------------~-----------------------  Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Statistical Appendix Historical data and projections for the UK economy Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Members of the CEPG Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Cambridge Economic Policy Review Volume 6 No 1, pages 43 - 54 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource April 1980