https://cpes.org.uk/om/files/original/98fac87970803b4172e42b2572274447.pdf e68e71ecdbb48856158812b3c1dc4820 Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Cambridge Economic Policy Review Volume 5 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource April 1979 Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Text Any textual data included in the document Appendix B Historical data and projections for the UK economy This Appendix presents historical data for 1961-78 based on information available up to the end of January 1979, together with the results of three different projections for 1979-90 based on the CEPG model of the UK.* The tables at the end of the Appendix show: B1-B4 Historical series BS and B6 A base projection B7 and B8 A projection with import controls B9 and B10 A projection with continuing real devaluation Assumptions Each projection illustrates the effects up to 1990 of pursuing different balance of payments policies and demand management policies on the same set of basic underlying assumptions. These are as follows: (i) World trade and prices: growth in the volume of OECD exports of goods and services of 5% in 1979 and at 6% a year thereafter: world prices of manufactures rising by 4% in 1979, and at 6% a year thereafter; world prices of food and materials rising by 3% in 1979, 6% a year thereafter; world oil prices rising by 7% in 1979, and at 9% a year thereafter (all measured in weighted average foreign currency terms). CAP farm prices, when converted to sterling at the 'green' rate, are assumed to move so as to maintain their real value to UK farmers. (ii) Balance of payments: zero targets throughout for the basic balance (current account plus longterm capital and net trade credit). (iii) Public expenditure and taxation: public expenditure plans based on those announced in the most recent White Paper, but with growth of expenditure after 1981 adjusted depending on GDP growth; the present general structure of taxation, adjusted for inflation and for future changes which have already been announced; such discretionary changes in income tax allowances and indirect taxation as are necessary to achieve the targets specified for each projection. (iv) Wage settlements: money wage bargains fixed so as to secure specified increases in the real post- *A full account of the current version of the model, together with its main simulation properties, will be available in May 1979 in a revised edition of the technical manual (Technical manual on the CEPG model, M. J. Fetherston and K. J. Coutts, fourth edition) from the Department of Applied Economics, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge, CB3 9DE, price £3.50. 56 tax value of basic rates at the time of settlement of 5.3% in 1979, 1.7% in 1980, and*% per annum thereafter. Given all these conditions, the projections differ because of assumed differences in policy towards trade and competitiveness, with fiscal policy and exchange-rate policy used in each case to achieve a zero target for the basic balance of payments and targets defined below for the level of international competitiveness. Base projection and import controls: in both these projections it is assumed that cost competitiveness, defined as the level of UK unit costs in foreign currency relative to the world price of manufactures, is maintained in future at the average 1978 level; in addition, under import controls internal demand is reflated through tax adjustments so as to hold unemployment constant at its 1978 level until 1982, and then progressively reduce it to 3% of the labour force by 1990. Devaluation: the sterling exchange rate is depreciated at whatever rate is necessary to improve the UK's international cost competitiveness by 4% a year from 1978 to 1985, and by 2% a year thereafter. Notes and definitions The system of accounts used in CEPG's model of the UK differs from official statistics in three main respects. First, production is classified into 'North Sea', 'public services' and 'other domestic output'. Second, private disposable income is divided between three branches of the private sector - 'wages and salaries', 'welfare benefits' and 'other private income' (the last item includes all private rents and income from self-employment as well as company profits, interest, etc.). Third, indirect taxes and subsidies are divided into two categories -- those which are specific to different kinds of final expenditure (i.e. taxes on consumption, investment, imports, etc.) and those which feed into business costs generally (rates, subsidies to public corporations, import duties and North Sea royalties). This analysis forms the basis of a distinction between expenditures value at market prices and at 'full cost' - the latter include net taxes on inputs but exclude specific taxes and subsidies on final expenditures. The series presented in the tables also involve adjustments to express output and expenditures at constant 1975 prices and incomes and financial flows at 1975 values, in order to normalise for inflation. The method used for these adjustments is as follows: (a) Real domestic fmal expenditures (consumption, investment, public spending and exports) at the level of disaggregation available in the model, where they are measured at 1975 factor cost, are rebased on their 1975 market price values and then re-aggregated. Note that 1975 factor cost series for consumers' expenditure, public sector current purchases (excluding wages and salaries) and fixed investment are measured in the model inclusive of relative price effects vis-a-vis their aggregate total. On account both of this and the higher level of aggregation in the model than that used by the CSO, the historical series for constant market price expenditures differ from those published in official national accounts. (b) Incomes and financial flows are expressed at 1975 values by dividing current price series by appropriate deflators, as described in the detailed notes which follow. For series expressed as annual percentage changes, note that the 1990 figure indicates the change from 1989, not the avt!rage change since 1985. Expenditure, output and employment Expenditures on GDP at 1975 market prices correspond with Blue Book definitions apart from the aggregation and relative price effects described above, except for stockbuilding, which here includes the residual error between compromise and expenditure estimates of GDP. National income is defined as money domestic expenditure plus the current balance of payments, divided by the domestic expenditure deflator. GDP at factor cost is also shown exclusive of the component directly attributed to North Sea production. Employment is defined as employees in employment including HM forces, and unemployment as the annual average of monthly figures for UK wholly unemployed, excluding school leavers and adult students. Costs and prices Earnings series refer to the whole economy. The series for costs and output prices are those for domestic output excluding North Sea and public services. Normal unit labour costs are standard money earnings (adjusted for cyclical overtime) divided by trend productivity, whilst other domestic costs comprise rates, farm profits and private rents less subsidies to public corporations, per unit of trend output. Import costs include import duties and costs of purchases from the North Sea. Output prices, the average deflator for home sales of domestic output plus imported goods and services, are measured at 'full cost', i.e. including net taxes on inputs but excluding sales taxes on final expenditure. Consumer prices are average output prices plus sales taxes on consumption; they differ from the official Blue Book figures by the relative price effect mentioned above. Finance Minimum lending rate (previously Bank rate) is the annual average of figures for the last Friday of the month. Money supply is end-year sterling M3. Real domestic credit expansion (DCE) is the calendar year figure divided by the domestic expenditure deflator, which is also used to deflate sector financial balances. The private surplus includes the residual error between compromise and income estimates of GDP, and, together with the public sector deficit, is measured before private sector payments of capital taxes. National income The components of national income are shown in real terms after taxes and transfers. Private income (including capital grants but before deduction of taxes on capital) is expressed in real terms using a deflator for private expenditure as a whole: wages and salaries and welfare benefits are deflated by the consumers' expenditure deflator leaving other private disposable income - profits (after stock appreciation), rents, interest and other net transfers -- to be inferred as a residual. Public sector disposable income - trading income, net tax receipts and rents less grants and net debt interest payments - is obtained as the difference between national income and private income. Public sector accounts All the series in this section are money flows divided by the domestic expenditure deflator. Indirect taxes are shown net ofsubsidies; direct tax comprises income tax, corporation tax and national insurance contributions. Tax revenues associated with the North Sea - corporation tax on North Sea profits, Petroleum Revenue Tax and royalties - are shown as a separate series. Public sector property income comprises gross trading income after stock appreciation, rent (including the imputed charge for consumption of nontrading capital), dividends and interest. Capital formation comprises fixed investment and stockbuilding. Current grants include welfare benefits -- social security payments plus student maintenance grants - as well as other current grants to the private sector and government transfers abroad. Balance of payments Trade volumes refer to goods and services. Imports of fuels are shown net of exports, manufactured imports include both finished and semi-finished items, and other imports comprise food, drink and tobacco, basic materials and services. The terms of trade effect shows the gains to the balance on goods and services at constant values from changes in relative export and import prices. Net income from abroad comprises property income and transfers. The basic balance is the current account plus net long-term capital and net trade credit. Cost competitiveness is defined as UK output prices, adjusted for sales taxes on exports, relative to the world price of manufactured exports, measured in the same currencies. The weighted exchange rate is a weighted index of nominal rates for sterling (derived from the Smithsonian-based effective exchange rate index published in Economic Trends). 57 TabLe Bl. HistoricaL series 1961-1969 Expenditure, output, eftlpLoyment, prices and finance 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Expenditure and output (.£bll.l.iono 1975 mkt pr) Consumers · expenditure Public consumption Private fixed inveshaent PubLic fixed investment Stockbuilding 47.4 16.2 7.6 4.8 t.o 46.6 16.6 7.4 s.1 0.6 50.7 16.8 7.4 5.4 o.8 52.4 16.9 8.6 6.4 2.2 53.6 17.4 8.9 6.6 1.9 54.4 18.2 6.6 7.2 1.3 56.2 18.7 8.8 8.2 o.8 57.7 18.8 9.6 8.2 1.4 58.5 18.3 10.1 7.7 1.9 Eaports of goods & servs Imports of goods & serv s 13.5 15.9 13.7 16.2 14.4 17.0 14.9 18.7 15.6 18.9 16.3 19.3 16e5 20.7 18.5 22.2 20.3 22.9 Factor COSt adjustment GOP at factor cost -----6-77-..5-3-------6-78-..1-6-------7-70-..-97-------7-84-..-34-------7-86-..-56-------7-88--..07-------7-9-9-..05-------8-9-2-..37--------8-94-..4-6- GOP at market prices National. lnco·e Non-Nor t 1\ Sea GOP at fc 74.8 77.2 67.3 75.8 78.6 68.. 1 78.6 81.5 70.7 62.8 85.6 74.4 85. 1 88.3 76.6 86.7 89.9 78.0 88.5 92.0 79.5 92.0 95el 82.7 94.0 97.6 84.5 ( · i ll.i ons) EmpLoyment Unemployment 22.70 0.34 22.89 0.45 22.93 o.s4 23.24 0.39 23.50 0.34 23.67 0.35 23.22 Oe55 23.05 o.57 23.00 0.57 Costs and prices (Annual changes,%) Average money earnings Nor·al. unit labour costs Other domestic costs l·port costs 6.7 3.1 4.7 -0.2 4.6 2.7 5.4 -0.2 4.9 0.6 4.2 2.2 7.0 3.2 5.3 3.1 6.8 3.4 5.7 3.5 6.4 4.4 6.4 1.2 6.1 1.4 3.7 -0.9 7.7 3.7 4.2 11.5 7.1 3.7 9.9 2.4 Total costs 2.6 2.4 1.3 3.4 3.8 4.0 1.1 5.3 4.2 Output prices Consumer prices Post-tax real earnings 2.2 3.4 2.2 3.3 -o3..o6 2.1 1.9 3.4 2.6 3.2 3.2 3.9 4.3 0.2 4.0 4.4 0.6 leO le6 3.8 3.8 4.7 1.2 3.7 4.9 leO Finance Minimum lending rate (X) Money supply (~ change) OCE .£1975 biLlion) 5.8 2.7 1.4 4.8 2.7 0.7 4.0 7.3 2.8 5.2 5.9 3.8 6.4 7.9 2.7 6.5 3.5 1.8 6.2 10.5 4.0 7.4 7.4 4.3 7.9 2.4 -o.5 (.£biLLion, 1975 values) Private sector surp l11 s 2.9 2e6 3.7 2.5 2. 7 3.0 3.4 2.6 1.4 Public sector deflclt 2.9 2.2 3.4 3.4 2.8 2.7 4.1 3.2 0.4 -C-u-rr-en-t----bal. -o-f-p-a-y-·-en-t-s---------o-.-t ------0-.4-------0-.3-------0-.-9-------0-.1-------0-.3--------0-.7-------0-.-6------t-.-o- Table B2. Historical series 1961-1969 NationaL Income. public accounts and baLance of pa~ments 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 ------------------ 1966 1967 1968 1969 (Jbllllon, 1975 vaLuest Nat tonal l nco me Post-tax reaL Income: wages and salaries welfare benefits other private income public sector 77.2 37.4 4.1 17.4 1t).4 78.6 37.7 4.3 17.0 19.6 81.5 39.0 4.8 18.4 19.2 85.6 40.8 4.9 19.9 20.1 88.3 41.3 5.4 20.1 21.4 89.9 41.9 5.6 19.6 22.8 --92.0 ----9-5-.1-----9-7-.6- 42.7 6.2 20. 1 23.1 42.9 6.8 21.5 24.0 43.2 6.9 21·9 25.6 Public sector aeeounts (.l:bllliono 1975 values) Net Indirect taxes Direct tax & Nl eontrlbs North Sea tax revenue Propert ~ income Total receipts 8.5 1o1..o6 3.7 23.9 8.9 1o2..o6 4.0 25.5 9.2 12.4 o.o 4.2 25.7 to.o 1o2..o7 4.4 27.0 10.7 1o3..o9 4. 7 29.3 11.4 14.8 o··.ao 31.1 11.9 16.4 o.o 5.t 33.4 12.9 1o7..o2 5.6 35.7 14.4 17.9 o.o 5.8 38.1 Flnal consumption Capital foraatlon Ct.~rrent grants Capital grants Debt Interest 12.7 5.1 5 ·· 0.3 3.5 13.2 5.4 5.3 0.4 3.4 13.6 5.a 5.9 0.4 3.4 13.9 6.6 6.1 0.4 3.5 14.6 6.8 6o..7s 3.6 15.2 7.5 6.9 o.5 3.6 16.4 8.5 7.6 1. 1 3.9 16.6 8.4 8.2 1.5 4.2 16.5 7.7 8.4 1· 7 4.2 Total outlays FinanciaL deflelt Borrowing re~ulrement 26.7 2.9 2.0 27.7 2e2 1. 5 29.1 3.4 2.2 30.5 3.4 2.5 32.1 2.8 2.9 33.8 2.7 2.3 3.7....5. ·· 3 38.9 3.2 2.8 38.5 0.4 -0.9 BaLance of payments (Jbllllono 1975 values) Trade volumes: non-fuel exports net l!Qorts of fuels Manufactured Imports other Imports TerMs of trade effect Net IncoMe from abroad Current balance Basic balance 13.1 2.1 3.7 9.7 13.2 2.3 3.8 9.6 13.9 2.5 4.1 9.8 14.4 2.7 s.o 10.5 15.1 3.0 5.1 10.3 15.7 3.3 5.5 10.0 15.9 3.6 6.1 to.· 17.8 3.7 7.1 10.7 1·9·.7o 7.6 10.7 z.o 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.2 2.9 3.0 -----0o--..14--------00--..64--------00--..37---------00-..-96---------o0-..-6t--------00-..-34---------00-..-73---------00-..-62--------01-..-06- o.o -0.2 -0.4 -1.9 -o. 7 -o.5 -1.3 -1·2 o.s (lndlces.1975=100) UK cost competitiveness 99.7 103.3 103.9 105.4 106.7 Weighted exchange rate ------1-5-0-.4-----1-5-1-.3-----1-5-0-.9-----1-5-0-.5---- 150.8 109.3 107.2 97.6 99.2 -1-5-0-.8------1-4-7-.-1------1-2-9-.0------1-2-9-.-5- Table 83. Hlstorlcal series 1970-1978 Expenditure, outputo employment. prices and finance 1970 1971 1972 Expenditure and output (.£billion, 1975 mkt pr) Consumers· expenditure Public consumption Private fixed Investment Public fCxed investment Stockbui ldl ng 59.7 18.6 1a0..o4 1.7 61.5 19.2 10.8 7.8 0.4 64.4 19.9 11.7 7.4 t.o Exports of goods & servs Imports of goods & servs 21.4 24.1 23.0 25.3 23 ·. 3 27.. 8 Factor cost adjustment 9.7 9.9 10.3 GOP at factor cost GOP at market prices National incoMe Non-North Sea GOP at fc 86.1 95.8 99.9 86.1 87.5 97.4 101.7 87.5 89.6 1oo.o 104.7 89.6 1973 66.0 20.9 12.8 a. 1 2.9 26.1 31.0 10.8 95.7 106.5 109.9 95.6 1974 64.6 21.2 12.1 9.0 1.1 27.6 31.3 10.7 93.8 104.5 103.7 93.7 (mi lllons) Employment Unemployment Costs and prices (Annual changesoX) Average money earnings Normal unit labour costs Other domestic costs Import costs TotaL costs Output prices Consumer prices Post-tax real earnings Finance Mtni·um lending rate (%) Money supply {X change) OCE £1975 biLlion) ( .£b Ill i o n · 1975 values) Prl vate sector surplus Public sector deflclt Current bal of payments 22.84 o.oo 22.49 0.78 22.49 o.as 23.02 0.61 23.13 Oe61 12.7 10.2 5.7 7.2 8.9 6.7 6.4 4.2 7.2 9.7 1.4 1.3 -0.1 t.4 12.4 8.7 12.2 4.0 a.o to.o 8.6 4.3 5.9 1z4..11 3.9 1.9 1.9 12.7 8.7 5.7 3.5 6.9 a.5 7.5 5.4 6.1 27.2 10.9 4.1 3.8 0.2 12.2 7.7 16.2 22.6 12.0 to. 7 10.7 o.t 10.1 26.4 12.0 3.8 - t5..s3 20.6 16.6 7.8 41.3 21.8 20.2 17.2 o.t 11.9 10.2 8.6 2.8 7. 3 -4.5 1975 63.2 22.9 11.9 9.0 -1.9 26.9 29.0 10.4 92.5 102.9 103.2 92.4 23.04 0.93 29.9 29.8 25.4 14.1 24.6 25.4 24.6 0.4 1 o.8 6.6 4.5 6.8 8.7 -1.9 1976 62.9 23.5 11.8 8.7 -0.4 29.4 30.2 10.5 95.2 105.7 105.5 94.7 22.87 1.27 15.4 13.4 19.0 22.6 16.5 16.0 16.9 -2.3 11.8 9.5 6.8 7a..0o -1.0 1977 62.8 23.3 12.2 7o .. 2 7 3&.5 30.3 10.5 96.9 107.4 106.5 95.7 22.99 1.38 9.2 7.0 9.6 15.9 9.8 12.4 13.7 -2.9 8.3 10.0 0.9 5.5 5.2 0.3 1978 66.3 23.7 13.6 6.5 le3 32.2 32.2 &1.0 100.4 IlleS 111.5 98.7 23.02 1e38 13.1 9.3 6.6 3.0 7.2 8.3 8.8 6.4 9.1 12.4 4.6 5.9 5o..7t TabLe 84. Historical aeries 1970-1978 NatloftaL lncomee pubLic accounts and baLance of payments 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 --~---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (~biLLion. 1975 values) NatloftaL lncoae 99.9 101.7 104.7 109.9 103.7 103.2 105.5 106.5 111.5 Post-tax real Income! wages aftd saLaries weLfare benefits other private lnco·e pubLic sect-or 44.7 7.1 21.3 26.8 45.9 7.1 23.3 25.4 48.4 8.o 24.7 23.6 49.6 8.0 27.8 24.5 49.9 8.3 22.4 23.0 49.9 8.6 20.9 23.8 48.4 9.2 23.2 24.7 47.2 9.8 24.2 25.3 50.3 10.9 25.7 24.7 PubLic sector accounts (~biLLioft· 1975 values) Net Indirect taxes Direct tax & NI contrlbs North Sea tax revenue Propertlf Income 14.5 19.5 o.o 5.6 13.9 1o8..o9 5.6 13.3 18.7 o.o 5.7 13.0 19.8 o.o 6.4 10.6 2 o2.. 0 0 6.3 10.4 23.4 o.o 6.2 11.2 23.4 o.t 7.3 12.9 22.6 o.2 7.3 14.0 22.3 0.3 7.6 Total receipts 39.6 38.4 37.7 39.2 38.9 40.0 42.0 43.1 44.3 FinaL coftsuaptlon CapitaL formation Current' grants CapitaL grants Debt Interest 1a7..o3 8.6 1.5 4.1 18.1 8.1 8.3 1.9 3.9 19.0 7.5 9.5 1. 5 3.9 2a0..10 10.1 1.3 4.5 20.7 9.0 10.2 1.1 s.1 22.9 9.5 10.4 1.1 4.8 23.0 9.1 11.5 1 ·· 5.3 22.2 7.3 12.2 1.0 5.6 22.9 6.6 13.6 1.3 5.6 Total. outLays FlnaftclaL deflctt Borrowlno re~ulrement 39.5 --oo.·o' 40.3 1.9 2.4 41.5 3.8 3.3 44.5 5.3 6.3 46.2 a7..o3 48.7 8.7 10.5 50.0 a.o 7.9 48.3 5.2 4.5 50.0 5.7 5.9 BaLance of P·ll·ents (~biLLion. 1975 vaLues) Tr·d· voLumes: non-fueL exports net Iaporta of fuels manufactured l·ports other laports Terms of trade effect Net lncoae from abroad Current balance Beale baLaftce 20.7 4.3 8.2 10.9 22.2 4.7 9.3 10.5 22.4 4.6 11.0 11.3 25.2 4.7 13.2 12.2 26.8 4.5 13.9 12.1 26.2 3.6 13.0 11.7 28.5 3.4 14.2 11.7 30.2 2.3 15.7 11.0 30.6 1.9 t8.o 10.6 - - - - 3.4 o-.-1- - - - - 3.7 -0-.-5- - - - - 4.3 -0-.-4- - - - - 2.3 -1-·1- - - - - -1.8 --1-· -1 - - - - - o.o -0-.2- - - - - -0.6 --0.-4- - - - - -0.3 --0-.-6- - - - 0.9 ---0-.-9- 1.4 1.9 0.2 -1.5 -4.5 -1.9 -t.o 0.3 0.1 0.7 1.9 -0.3 -1.5 -3.9 -1.5 -1.7 t. 1 o.o (lndlces.1975=100) UK coat coapetltlveness Weighted exchange rate 99.7 128.2 106.4 127.9 109.3 123.3 100.8 111.8 94.5 108.3 100.0 100.0 94.0 84.7 94.2 80.4 99.8 81.6 ------~-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TabLe 85. Base projection -E-x-p-e-n--d-it-u-r-e-,--o-u-t-p-u--t.--e-m-p-L-o-~-m-e-n-t-o--1-p9-7r-8ic--e-s--a-n-d1-9-f7-i9n--a-n-c-e--1-9-8-0--------1-9-81----- Expenditure and output (·biLLion, 1975 mkt pr) Conaumers· expenditure PubLic consumption Private flxed Investment PubLic f xed Investment Stockbulldlng 66.3 23.7 13.6 6.5 1.3 69.4 24.3 13.3 6.5 1.6 70.7 24.8 13.2 6.6 0.9 70.6 25.3 13.2 6.8 0.4 Exports of goods & aerva Imports of goods & aervs 32.2 32.2 34.2 34.5 36.0 35.7 37.6 36.9 Factor coat adJustment 11.0 11.5 11.7 11.8 GOP at factor coat 100.4 103.3 104.8 105.1 GOP at market prices NationaL Income Noft-North Sea GOP at fc 111.5 111.5 98.7 114.8 115.0 100.6 116.6 116.5 101.3 116.8 116.6 101.3 1982 71.7 25.7 12.9 6.8 0.5 39.2 38.8 12.0 106.0 117.9 118.1 102.0 -----------------------------------1983 19-8-4------1-9-8-5-------1-9-9-0-- 73.2 26.0 12.5 6o..91 41.0 41.0 12.2 107.1 119.3 119.9 l 02.9 74.2 26.1 12.2 6.9 0.6 42.5 42.7 12.3 107.4 119.8 120.6 103.2 74.7 26.3 11.9 7. 0 0.4 44.1 44.4 12.5 107.5 120.0 121.1 103.3 77.7 26.9 10.4 7.2 0.3 53.0 54.7 13.0 107.9 120.9 123.7 103.9 (mlLUons) EmpLovment UnempLovment 23.02 1.38 23.19 1.37 23.17 1. 50 23.02 1.72 22.87 le95 22.73 2el7 22.55 2.44 22.35 2.72 21.18 3.74 Coats and prices CAnn~ae L c he ng e ·· X) Average mona¥ earnings NormaL unlt Labour coats Other domestic coats Import costs 13.1 9.3 6.6 3.0 14.3 10.6 11.3 7.7 17.2 13.3 14.2 11.6 20.6 16.2 16.2 13.9 20.0 16.5 t5.o 15.0 19.5 15.9 15.0 15.1 19.9 16.5 15.1 15.2 20.8 17.3 15.5 15.6 24.6 20.9 17.8 18.5 TotaL costs 7.2 9.9 13.0 15.5 15.9 15.6 15.9 16.6 19.7 Output prices Conaeamer prices Poa~tex reeL earnings 8.3 8.8 6.4 8.4 9.1 4.5 12.2 12.3 3.2 14.9 16.4 1.4 15.7 16.0 2.8 15.7 15.9 2.5 16.0 16.8 t.8 16.5 t7.5 1.9 19.6 21.2 2.1 F lnence Mini··· Lending rate (X) Money aupplv (X change) OCE ·19.75 biUioft) 9el 12.4 4.6 12.3 13.4 4.4 12.0 13.3 4.3 11.6 15.0 ·· 7 10.9 17.6 5.4 10.9 18.4 5.7 11.0 17.4 5.5 lle1 17.7 5.5 12.1 21.7 6.5 C·bl&.llen, 1975 values) Private sector aurp Lua PubLic aecter deficit -------------------------------------------------------------------------------··-·-Cearrent ML of pawmenta 5.9 s.s 5. 7 5.6 o.t -o.o 6s..18 0.2 6.1 5.6 0.4 6.5 6o..0s 7.0 6.4 0.6 7.1 6.4 0.7 7.2 6.3 o.8 8.o 6.9 Table 86. Base projection National income. public accounts and balance of payments 197d 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1990 (.&biLLion, 1975 values) NationaL income 111.5 115 .. 0 116.5 116.6 118. 1 119.9 120.6 121.1 123.7 Post-tax real income: wa9es and salaries welfare benefits other private income publl c sec tor 50.3 10.9 25.7 24.7 52.9 11.9 24.9 25.3 54.6 12.3 23.9 25.7 ss.o 12 .. 7 22.5 26.4 56.1 13.5 22.0 26.4 57.2 14.3 22.0 26.4 57.8 15.0 21.4 26.5 58.3 15.7 20.3 26.7 61.3 19.5 16.3 26.7 Public sector accounts (.&biLlion, 1975 values) Net indirect taxes Direct tax & Nl contribs North Sea tax revenue Property income Total receipts 14.0 15.3 15.8 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.5 21.9 22.3 23.3 24.2 24.9 25.3 25.5 26.0 26.6 29.3 0.3 o.8 t.J lab 2.0 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.3 ------7-.6---------7-.7---------7-..-7------r-7-.6---------7-.7---------7-.-8--------7-.8---------7-.8---------7-.9-- 44.3 4 7.1 49.0 so.8 51.9 53.2 54.5 56.0 62 ·· Final consumption Capital formation Current 9rants Capital grants Debt interest 22.9 6.6 13.6 1.3 5.6 24.3 6.6 14e6 t.3 5.9 25.d 6.6 15.2 1.3 5.9 27.3 6.6 ts.s 1.3 5.6 28.3 6.6 16.3 1.4 5.4 29.3 6.6 1 7.I ·· 4 5.2 29.9 6.6 I 7.9 t. 4 5.t 30.6 6.5 18.6 1.4 5.1 34.5 6.2 22.3 1.5 4.7 Total outlays 50.0 52.1 54ed 56.4 58.o 59.6 60.9 62.3 69.3 Financial deficit Borrowing requirement 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.2 6 ·· 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.3 6.5 6.9 7.1 Balance of payments (.&billion, 1975 values) Trade volumes: non-fuel exports net imports of fuels manufactured imports other imports 30. b u1:s..9o 10.6 31.7 0.9 20.1 10.9 32.7 -0.1 21.6 10.9 33.9 -0.4 22.8 10.9 35.2 -0.7 24.5 11.0 36.6 -1.1 26.6 11.1 38.1 -1 ·· 28.2 11 .2 39.7 -1.1 29.9 11.2 48.6 -1.1 40.0 11 ·· Terms of trade effect Net income from abroad Current balance Basic balance 0.9 -0.9 o.t o.o 1.7 -1.5 -o.o o.o 1.9 -1.9 0.2 o.o 2a0 -2.2 0.4 o. 0 2.3 -2.2 0.5 o. 0 2.8 -2.2 0.6 o.o J.t -2.2 0o..7o 3.4 -2.3 o.s o.o 5.3 -2.5 1.1 o.o 1Indices,1975=100) UK cost competitiveness ~eighted exchange rate 99.8 81.6 99.8 78.0 99.8 73.7 99.8 68.0 99.8 62.3 99.8 57.0 99.8 52.1 99.8 .7.4 99.8 27.3 TabLe 87. laport contro~s - - - - -Eapendlture. output. eap&.ovaent. prtces and finance ·~- -E-a-p-e-n-d-l-t-u-r-e--a-n-d--o-u-t-p-u-t-----------1-9-7-8-------1-9-7-9-------1-9-8-0--------1-98-1--------1-9-8-2-------1-9-8-3-------1-9-8-4-· (~ILLione 1975 akt prJ Consuaers· expenditure PubLic consu·ptlon Private flaed lnvestaent PubLic flaed lnvestaent Stockbul~dlng 66.3 23.7 13.6 6.5 1.3 69.4 24.3 13.4 6.5 1.6 72.3 24.8 13.8 6.6 1.9 74.4 25.3 14.6 6.8 2.2 78.0 25.8 t5.o 6.9 2.3 83.1 26.3 15.5 7.1 2.9 87.4 26.8 16·0 7.3 3.1 Exports of goods & serve Iaporta of goods & serve 32.2 32.2 34.2 34.5 36.0 35.7 37.2 36.5 38.7 38.3 40.7 40.6 42e5 42.5 Factor cost adJustment 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.3 12.9 13.7 14e3 GOP at foetor cost 100.4 103.4 107.8 111e6 115.6 121.4 126.3 GDP at aarket prices National lncoae Non-North Sea GDP ot fc 111.5 111.5 98.7 114.9 115.1 100.7 119.7 119.6 104.3 123.9 123.4 107.8 128.5 128.1 111.6 135.0 134.8 117.1 140.6 140.2 122.0 1985 ----1-9-90-- 91.8 27.4 16.6 7.4 3.0 ·4·4·.1o 15.o 131.3 146.3 145.7 t27.t 109.2 30.4 a.·18.4 2e7 53.0 52.7 17.7 151.7 169.4 t67.0 147.7 (al~lto··J Eap~ovaent Uneaplovaent Costs end prices (Annua~ changes~X) Average aonev earnings Noraal unit ~abour costs Other doaestlc coste laport costs TotaL cost · Output prlces Coftsuaer prices Post-tax reeL earnings Finance Mlnl ..· Lendlnl rate (X) Menef suppLw ( change) DCE .1975 biLLion) l·~tiLUone 1975 vaLues) Prlwote sector surp~u· P·b&.lc sect- deficit turreat boL of pew·ents 23.02 1.38 23.18 1·38 23.35 1.38 23.51 1.38 23.68 le38 23.96 1.30 24.24 t. 22 24.52 1.t5 25.tt 0.86 13.1 9.3 6.6 3.0 7.2 8.3 8.8 6.4 9.1 12.4 4.6 5.9 5.7 o.a 14.3 10.6 11.3 7.7 9.9 8.4 9.0 4.6 12.3 ···13.5 5.6 5.6 -o.o 16.8 12.2 14.0 11.2 12.1 11.8 lle1 4.8 11·9 16.0 5.3 6.2 6·1 o.1 18.9 13.7 15.2 12·6 13.6 1;Je4 14.3 2.0 11.1 16.6 5.5 5.3 5.2 o.t 16.8 t4.5 12.9 10.3 13.2 12.2 -12-.-6------1-1-.4- 12.9 to.8 13.0 12.3 4-.2- 11.5 to.· ··6 10.0 17.4 5.9 9.5 t8. 1 6.5 5.5 5.4 o.o 6.0 6.1 -0.2 13.2 12.3 10.4 9.3 8.5 6.7 11.3 10.6 9.2 -99--..97---------9e-..g2---------77-..-34- 10.3 9.4 7.4 10·2 8.7 7.3 2-.3---------3-.-8---------2-.-~- 9.1 , ··5 5.6 8.8 13.6 5.5 8.1 to-· 4.9 s.o ·· 9 4.0 -------------o5 ·.·· 5.5 -0.6 6.0 -2.0 Table BBe J·part controLs NotionaL lnco··· pubLic accounts and balance of pa¥··nts -----------------1978 1979 1980 -------------------('biLLion. 1975 values) 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1990 NationaL lnco·· 111.5 115.1 119.6 123.4 128. 1 134.8 140.2 145.7 167.0 Post-tax reaL lnco·e: wages and salaries welfare benefits other private Inc··· publl c sec tor 50.3 10.9 25.7 24.7 53.0 11.9 25.0 25.3 55.9 12.4 25.9 25.4 57.4 12.7 26.4 26.9 60.3 13.5 27.1 27.3 63.8 14.3 29.5 27.2 66.0 14.9 30.6 28.7 69.3 15.6 31.5 29.3 81.3 18.9 34.2 32.6 PubLic sector accounts ('biLLion. 1975 vaLues) Net Indirect taxes Olrect tax & Nl contrlbs North Sea tax revenue Pro pert¥ I nco·· TotaL recelpts 14.0 15e3 15.5 16.5 22.3 23.3 24.0 25.1 -----4-074-...-363-------4-7o7-...-187--------4-a18-...o93--------5811...346 16.7 25.6 2.0 8.7 53.0 16.7 25.9 2.6 9.3 54.5 l 7.4 17.5 19.5 27.0 28.1 34.2 2.9 3.2 3.7 -9-.8--------1-0-.-4-------1-2-.-9- 57.1 59.2 70.4 FinaL consumption CapitaL for·atlon Current grants CapitaL grants Debt lnt crest 22.9 6.6 13.6 1.3 5.6 24.3 6.6 14e6 1.3 5.9 25.8 6.7 15.2 1.3 6.0 27.4 6.7 15.5 1.4 5.7 28.6 6.8 16.3 1. 4 5.4 29.7 7.0 17.2 1.4 5.3 30.8 7.2 17.8 a.5 5.2 32.1 7.3 18.6 1.5 5.2 38.9 8.2 22.2 1. 7 5.4 Total outLavs 50.0 52.7 55.0 56.7 58.5 60.7 62.5 64.7 76.4 FinanciaL deficit Borrowing re~ulrement 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.3 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.6 6.1 6.3 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 BaLance of pa¥·ents ('biLLion. 1975 values) Trade voLu·es: no-ru·L exports net ·ports or fueLs ·anufactured ·ports other I ·port s 30.6 1.9 18.0 10.6 31.7 0.9 20.1 10e9 32.6 0.1 21.0 11.2 33.5 -0.1 21.4 11.6 34.7 -0.2 22.7 11.9 36.3 -0.4 24.3 12.3 38.1 -0.2 25.6 12.7 39.7 o.1 26.5 13.1 48.6 1el 32.6 14.6 Tar·· of trade effect Net lnco·· fro· abroad Current baLance Beale balance 0.9 ·· 7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.4 4.2 ------0-.9--------1-.-5--------2-.1--------2-.-6--------2-.8- Oe1 -o.o 0.1 o.t o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o o.o -3.1 -0o..2o ---o03-...o54----------40-o-...06o----------62-o-...06o-- (lndlcesel975·100I ~:.:::!etc::::!!!!";:;:· 99.8 99·8 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 81.6 78.0 73.9 ------6-9-.1--------6-4-.-8-------6-1-.-6-------5-9-.-2-------57.4 52.7 Table 89. DevaLuation -E-x-p-e-n-d--it-u-r-e-.--o-u-t-p-u--t,--e-·-p-l-o-y-·-e-n--t,-1-9p-7r-8i-c-e-s--a-n-d1-9-7f-i9-n-a-n-c-e--1-9-8-0--------1-9-81--------1-9-8-2-------1-9-8-3-------1-9-8-4-------1-9-8-5--------1-9-9-0-- Expenditure and output (.CbllLlon 1 1975 ·k t pr) Consumers· expenditure Public consu·ptlon Private fixed InvestMent Public fixed I nvest·ent StockbuiLdlnJIJ 66.3 23.7 13.6 6.5 1.3 69.0 24.3 13.3 6.5 1.7 70.7 24.8 13.6 6.6 1.5 71.3 25.3 14.1 6.8 1.5 73.5 25.8 14.5 6.9 1.9 77.0 26.3 14.9 7.1 2.5 79.6 26.8 15.4 7.3 2.6 82.2 27.4 16.0 7.4 2.5 93.6 30.4 17.8 8.4 1.7 Exports of JIJOOdS & servs l·ports of goods & servs 32.2 32.2 34.5 34.2 37.2 35.8 40.0 37.7 43.1 4-0.5 47.0 4-4.0 so.8 47.2 55.0 50.5 77.3 70.3 Factor cost adjust·ent GOP at factor cost ----1-10-10-..-04------1-l0i-3e-.S-7------1-10-16-..68-------1-10-29-..0-3------1-11-22-..-48------1-11-37-..-08------1-12-31-..-95------1-12-46-..1-0------1-41-26-..-44- GOP at market prices 111.5 115.1 118.6 121.3 125.3 130.8 135.4 140.1 158.8 Nat tonal Income 111 .5 114.9 117.7 119.8 123.5 128.9 132.9 136.9 152.8 -N-o-n---N-o--rt-h--S-e-a--G-O-P--a--t --fc------------9-8-.-7------1-0-1--.0-------1-0-3-.-3------1-0-5-.-6------1-0-8--.9-------1-1-3-.-5------1-1-7-.-6------1-2--1-.8-------1-3-8-.-4- C·llUons) E·ploy·ent Une·ploy·ent 23.02 ·· 38 23.20 1.36 23.28 1.42 23.33 1.51 23.42 1.56 23.62 1.53 23.82 1.51 24.02 1.49 24.37 1e34 Costs and prices (Annual changes.X) Average money earnings Nor·aL unit labour costs Other do·estlc costs l·port costs 13.1 9.3 6.6 3.0 t5.o 11.2 11.9 11.8 18.6 14.2 15.7 17.5 23.0 17.9 18.4 20.9 22·3 18.1 17.5 22.7 21.3 17.0 17.5 23.0 22.0 17.9 17.9 23.3 22.4 18.3 18.3 23.9 25.1 21.1 19.5 23.2 TotaL costs 7.2 11.5 t5.5 19.0 19.7 19.4 20.1 20.7 22.5 Output prices Consu·er prices Post-tax real earnlnas 8.3 8.a 6.4 9.4 9.9 4.2 14.3 13.7 3.8 18.0 'l:l. 7 1.8 19.4 18.6 3.3 19.4 18.1 3.5 20.0 19.5 2.1 20.5 19.8 2.7 22.2 22.0 2.2 FInance MlnC~· lendlnQ rate {X) Monef su~ply (X chanQe) OCE a19 5 bllllon) 9.1 12.4 4.6 12.6 14.1 4.6 12.7 16.7 5.4- 12.6 19.6 6.1 12.1 22.8 7.1 12.1 24.8 a.o 12.3 23.1 7.7 12.5 23.6 8.0 13.0 23·8 a.8 { ,b,llL lone 1975 values) Private sector surplus PubUc sector deficit Current taL of pay·ents 5.9 5.6 6.6 6.4 6.9 7.4 7.1 7.2 7.2 ----5o,-·.-7·--------5o-..-5t--------6o-..-05------- 5.6 o.8 5.9 0.9 6.4 6.0 5.9 6.3 1.0 -------1-.-1--------1-.-3--------0-.-9- Table 610· Devaluation National lnco··· pubLic accounts and balance of pay·ents 1978 1979 1980 (&biLLion. 1975 values) N·i'lonaL lnco·e 111.5 114.9 117.7 Post-ta· real lnco·e: wages and salaries welfare benefits other private lnco·e publl c sector 50.3 10.9 25.7 24.7 52.8 11.8 25.0 25.4 55.0 12.1 25.1 25.5 PubLic sector accounts C&bllllon. 1975 values) Net Indirect taxes Direct ta· & Nl contrlbs North Sea taa revenue Property Income 14.0 22.3 0.3 7.6 15.2 23.3 o.8 7.7 15.5 23.8 1.4 7.9 TotaL recel pt s 44.3 47.1 48.6 Final consu·ptlon CapitaL for·atlon Current grants Capital grants Debt Interest 22.9 6.6 13.6 1 .3 5.6 24.2 6.6 14.5 1.3 6.0 25.7 6.7 14.9 1. 3 6.0 Total outLays 50.0 52.6 54.6 FinanciaL deficit Borrowing re~ulrement 5.7 5.9 5.5 5.6 6.0 6.2 Balance of P·v·ents C&bll.Llone 1975 values) Trade vol.u·es: no-f··L ··ports net l·ports of fuels ·anufectured l~orts other t·ports 30.6 11a..o9 10.6 32.0 0.9 19.9 10.9 3o3..o9 21.5 10.9 Tor·· of trade effect Net lnco·· fro· abroad Currant balaace Basic balance 0.9 -0.9 o.t o.o 1.3 -1.4 Oel o.o 1.0 -1.9 o.s o.o (ladlcoae1975:100) UK cost co·petltlvoness 99.8 95.8 92.0 -W--ei-g-h-t-e-d--·-·-c-h-a-n-g-o--r-a-t-e-------------8-1-.-6-------7-4--.2--------6-6-.1--- 1981 119.8 56.1 12.2 25.0 26.4 16.2 24.3 1.8 a.1 50.4 27.2 6.7 15.0 1.4 5.7 56.0 5.6 5.8 36.3 -0.2 23.2 11.0 o.8 -2.3 -o0..o8 88.3 57.0 1982 123.5 58.1 12.8 25.9 26.7 16.3 24.5 2.4 8.4 51.6 28.2 6.9 t5.6 1. 4 5.4 57.5 5. 9 6. 1 39.2 -0.4 25.7 11.1 0.6 -2.3 0o..9o 84.7 48.6 1983 128.9 60.7 13.3 27.9 26.9 16.2 24.3 3.2 9.0 52.8 29.2 7.1 16.2 1. 4 5.3 59.2 6.4 6 .. 6 42.6 -0.6 28.8 11.4 0.5 -2.s o1.·o0 81.4 41.4 19B4 132.9 62.5 13.6 28.8 28.0 16.5 24.8 3.7 9.4 54.5 30.2 7.2 t6.5 1.5 5. 1 60.5 6.0 6.2 46.4 -0.4 31.6 11.5 0.2 -2.7 1.1 o.o 78.1 35.1 1985 136.9 64.7 13.9 29.5 28.8 16.6 25.3 4.3 9.9 56.2 31.2 7.4 17.0 1.5 4.9 62.1 5.9 6.1 50.6 -0.2 34.6 11.7 -0.2 -3.0 o1..o3 75.0 29.6 1990 152.8 73.8 16.0 30.8 32.2 18.o 29.1 5.5 12.1 64.7 37.2 8.3 19.4 t.8 4.3 71.0 6.3 6.5 72.9 0.6 53.1 12·3 -a.o -s.t 0.9 o.o 67.8 13.8  Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Appendix B Historical data and projections for the UK economy Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Members of the CEPG Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Cambridge Economic Policy Review Volume 5, pages 56 - 67 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource April 1979