https://cpes.org.uk/om/files/original/1aac29515d49fe9feae3d3197b7d212c.pdf a574df947d4b68bc6c6cbe4c3c3a370b Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Economic Policy Review Volume 3 Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Text Any textual data included in the document · STATISTICAL APPENDIX This Appendix presents tables of historical data for 1961-76 based on information' available up to 4 February 1977, together with the results of three different projections for 1977-85 based on the CEPG model. The system of accounts and the 1976 version of the model itself were described in the 1976 Economic Policy Review2, and in a technical manual.3 A full description of the current version of the model will be available shortly in a revised edition of the technical manual. The second column of each table gives a number for every variable shown, referring to its definition in the notes which follow the tables. The three strategies Each projection illustrates the effect of a different strategy for the balance of payments and -demand management on the same underlying assumptions. The main common assumptions are: (i) Growth of the volume of world trade at 9% a year from 1978 onwards with world prices of manufactures, oil and primary commodities all rising at 5 % a year in foreign currency (a weighted average of the currencies ot the UK's main competitors). (ii) Public expenditure plans as announced up to 1978/9, and expected up to 1981/2, with the historical growth trends thereafter (except that some additional public investment is assumed under projections 2 and 3 from 1978 onwards). (iii) The present general structure of taxation, adjusted for future inflation, but allowing for future changes which have already been announced. (iv) Targets on the basic balance of payments (current account plus structural capital flows) expressed in foreign currency, rising from the equivalent at 1976 exchange rates of a deficit of £500 million in 1977 and 1978 to a surplus of£ I,000 million in 19 5. 1The main source is National income and expenditure, 1966-75. "Economic Policy Rel'iew, No.2, March 1976, Appendix B. 3 Technicaf manual on the CEPG model, M. J. Fetherston, mimeo, DAE, April 1976. (v) Discretionary changes in income tax allowances and VAT such as to ensure that targets for the basic balance of payments are achieved in each year. (vi) A level of wage settlements in terms of basic rates rising after full allowance for changes in consumer prices and direct taxes by 3 % in 1978, 2% in 1979 and I % a year thereafter. Given all these conditions, the projections differ because of assumed differences in policy on trade and the exchange rate. Strategy I assumes that the exchange rate for sterling changes from now on in such a way as to hold UK unit costs expressed in foreign currency fixed at their January 1977 level relative to the world price of manufactures. Strategy 2 assumes that the exchange rate changes so as to secure a small reduction in 1979, and a larger one in 1982, in UK unit costs relative to the world price of manufactures, the total effect being calculated so as to achieve an identical level of GOP at factor cost in 1985 to that achieved under strategy 3. Strategy 3 assumes constant relative costs as in projection. l together with restrictions of imports of manufactures by non-tariff methods from 1978 onwards (which have no effect on prices of manufactured imports), calculated so as to meet unemployment targets in each year falling to 1·2 million in 1980 and 0·8 million in 1985. Note that higher levels of public investment are assumed under 2 and 3 than in 1 and that income tax allowances and VAT are different in each case by the amount necessary to secure identical outcomes on the basic balance of payments denominated in terms of foreign currency. For each strategy as well as historical series the following tables are provided: Table 1 Summary Table 2 Employment, output and income Table 3 Earnings, costs and prices Table 4 Expenditure and disposable income Table 5 Balance of payments. 99 0 0 ~ Historical Series 1961-1969 Table 1 summary 1----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------l 1 I 1961 I 1962 I 1963 I 1964 I 1965 I 1966 I 1967 I 1968 I 1969 I 1----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------l I (Annual changes, I) I !Consumers expenditure II II 14011 1 I 3.2 1 I I 2.8 1 I I 11.2 1 I I 3. 5 1 I I 2.1 1 I ~ ~.o 1 I I 2.8 1 I I 2.6 1 I I 1.3 1 1Public curr expenditure I I 1 en goods and services 14021 IPixed investment 11011 I 1.4 I 10.3 I I 2.3 I -0.1 I I 1.0 I 3.0 I I 1.0 I 16.3 I I 2.7 I 3.6 I I 2.5.1 2.9 I I ~.1 I 7.0 I I 0.7 1 4.6 I I -1.9 1 -o.o I I GDP at market prices II 14101 I 2.3 I I 1.2 I I 3.4 I I 6.0 I I 2.6 I I 1.8 I I 2.1 I I 4.0 I 1.8 National income 14131 2.6 I 1.8 I 3.4 I 5. 3 I 3.0 I 2.0 1 2.3 I 3.3 1 2.4 (Thousands) Oneilployment II 211 1 I 339 I I 454 I I 539 I I 39 4 I I 338 I I 353 I I !:117 I I 574 I 566 (Annual changes, I) II I Volume of world trade 15161 4.3 6.2 7.8 1!). 9 6.6 7.7 7. 1 I 10.7 1 o. 8 fioild terms of trade 1t I for manufactures 11021 Sterling exchange rate 15221 3.9 -0.2 0.2 -2.2 -2.7 0.6 -0.3 -J. 3 3. 2 o. 2 0.5 ,·9 I 0.6 o.o -2.5 I -12.3 1.7 0.4 OK unit costs relative 1 1 1 to world price of mfs 15211 0.8 3.3 0.7 1. 4 o. 4 I ,·5 -1.3 I -9.0 1.8 I II I 1Volume of exports 14071 2.8 I 2.0 1 11.0 I II. 1 I 4.9 I 11.0 1.0 I 11.7 9.2 IYclume of imports 14091 -0.5 1 3.0 1 3.7 1 S.6 1 1.7 1 3.1 6.6 I 6.6 3.4 1----------------------------------------------------------------~----------------------------------------------------- l (t billion, 1975 values) 1 I I I I I I 1Balance of payments on I I I I I I I 1 current account 14211 0.0 1 0.3 1 0.3 I -).9 1 -0.1 1 0.2 1 -0.7 I -0.6 1 0.9 1~--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- '(Annual changes, I) II I I I I I I I I Average money earnings 13031 6.7 1 .4.6 I 4.9 1 7.0 1 6.8 1 E.ll 1 E.1 1 7.8 1 7.1 Ccnsu.er prices 13111 Post-tax real earnings 13051 2.0 I 3.5 1 3.2 I 0.3 I 2.0 I 3.2 I 3. 2 I 3.2 I II. 2 I 0.3 1 3.9 I 1.2 1 2.2 I 3.5 I 4.8 I 1.0 1 5.1 0.9 (i billion,1975 values) I I I I I I I Public sector borrowing I I I I I I I tequiremen t 11031 2.0 I 1. 5 I 2.2 I 2. 5 I 2. 9 t 2.2 I 4.2 I 2.8 I -1.0 Domestc Credit Expansionl1041 1 .5 I 0.8 I 2.9 I 4. 0 I 2.8 I 1. 7 I 4. 1 I 4.3 I -0.3 II I I I I I (Annual changes, I) II I I I I I ftoney supply 11051 Bank rate 1 I!LR (lp.a.) 11061 2.8 I 5.8 I 2.8 I 4.8 I 6.9 I 4.0 I 5. 7 I s. 2 I 7. 8 I 6. 4 I 3. 8 I 6.5 I 10.1 I 6.2 I 6.9 I 7.4 I 3.0 7.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ~ § c 3r;· d' ~ .~.. l'O' ~ t g table 1 Summary Historical Series 1970-1976 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1S16 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Annual changes, ~) I II Consumers expenditure 1401 I 2.0 I 2.6 I 5.2 I 1. 9 I -o. 3 1 -0.5 I 0.6 Public curr expenditure I I en goods and services 14021 Fixed investment 11011 2.3 I 2.5 I 2.6 I 2.0 I 3.5 I 3. 3 I 2. 4 I 11. 5 I 1. 8 I -2.3 I 4. 8 I 0. 1 I 3.5 -4.6 GDP at market prices National income II 14101 14131 1. 8 I 2.4 I 1.5 I 1.6 I 3.2 I 3.3 I 6. o I 4. 8 I -o. 1 1 -4.6 I -1.5 I -o. 1 1 1.2 1. 3 1 (Thousands) II I I I I I I ·U--n-em--p-l-o-y-m-e-n-t -------------1-2-11--I ------6-02---I------7-76---I ------8-5-5--I -----6-1-1---I ------6-0-6--I ------9-3-0--I-----1-~-1-4- (Annual changes, I) Volume of vorld trade II 15161 8.7 I 7.0 I 8.4 I 12. 1 I a. 5 1 -5.0 I e.2 llodd terms of trade for manufactures II 11021 2.4 I 0.5 I -3.6 I -18. 6 I -16.9 1 11.9 I -5.1 Sterling exchange rate I 5221 -1.0 I -0.2 I -3.4 I -1J. 5 I -4.2 I -9.2 I -17.3 UK unit costs relative I I to world price of mfs 15211 1. 0 I 6.6 I 2.1 I -7. 3 I -1.6 I 4. 0 I -5.5 II Volume of exports Volume of imports 14071 14091 5.3 I 5.2 I 7.0 I 4.8 I 2. 1 I 9.4 I 11. 6 I 11. 2 I 6. 9 I -o. o 1 -3.9 I -6.7 I 6.9 5.5 -(-~--b-il-l-i-o-n-,-1-9-7-5---v-a-lu-e-s-)---I----I----------I----------I----------I --------------------------------------- Balance of payments on I I I I I current account 14211 1 .4 I 1. 9 I 0.2 I -1. 1 I -4.2 I -1.7 I -1.3 (Annual changes, ~) II Average money earnings 13031 12 .a I 1 I 11.9 1 I 12.2 I I 12. 5 I I 20.7 I I 30.4 I 111.E Consumer prices I 311 I 6.6 I 8.3 I 7.4 I 11. 3 I 15. 4 I 22.8 I 15.5 Post-tas real earnings 13051 4. 1 I 3.4 I 5.3 I o. 3 I 2. 2 I 2.0 I -~.q -(-t-b--il-l-i-o-n-,-1-9-7-5---v-a-lu--e-s)---I------------------------------------------------------------------------- Public sector borrowing I I :tequireaent 1103 I -o.o 1 2.4 I 3. 3 I 6. 2 I 7. 9 I 10. 5 t e.9 Do·estc Credit Expansiont1041 2 .1 I 2.0 I 11. 1 I 12. 7 I 9. 5 I 4. 8 I 1.0 II (Annual changes, I) II l!oney supply 11051 9.7 I 12.9 t 25.0 I 27. 9 I 12.6 I 7.6 I 13.1 Bank rate 1 I!LR (lp.a.) 11061 7.2 I 5.9 I 6. 1 I 10. 1 I 11. 9 I 10.8 I 11.7 ~ iii· ~ lit ::to.. ~ ~ I<" Historical Series 1961-1969 'Iable 2 Eaplo yment, output and incoae 2 1961 1962 1963 1951J 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 ~ § (£ billion at 1975 ~ ;:;· factor cost) North sea output Public service output Other doaestic output GDP at factor cost 201 o.o I o.o I o.o I J.O 202 11 .2 I 11.4 I 11. 5 I 11. 1 203 -----5-5-.2---I-----5-5-.9---I-----5-8-.1---I-----6-2-. -0- 204 66.5 1 67.3 1 69.6 I 73.6 o.o 11. 8 63.9 75.7 o.o 12. 1 6 5. 1 11.-;. o.o 12.5 66.3 78.8 o.o 12.6 69.3 81.9 o.o 12.7 70.9 83.6 d' ~ ~ ~ ;"";"';· ~ Shares of GDP (I): incoae froa eaployment 1205 gross trading income and public rents 1206 67.7 28.7 I I I I 1 68.2 28.0 I I I I I 67.7 28.4 I I I I I 67.6 28. 5 68.2 27.9 68.9 27.0 68.4 27.4 68.0 27.7 68.7 26.7 private rents 12011 3.6 I 3.1 I 3.9 I 3. 9 3. 9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (aillion fta equivs) II I I I I I I I I I Public service eaplat 12081 2.41 I 2.44 I 2.48 I 2.50 I 2.53 I 2.59 I 2.67 I 2.71 I 2.72 1 Other eaployment 12091 15.96 I 16.01 I 15.95 I 16.01 I 16.11 I 16.07 I 15.64 I 15.32 I 15.16 1 I 1-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 ( aillion persons) 'total employaent II I I I 12101 22.7C I 22.89 I 22.93 I I 23.24 I I 23.50 I I 23.67 I I 23.22 I II 23.05 1 23.00 1 uneaployaent 12111 0.34 I 0.45 I 0.54 I 0.39 I 0.34 I 0.35 I 0.55 I 0.57 I 0.51 I Non-participants 12121 0.38 I 0.41 I 0.53 I 0.42 I 0.38 I 0.39 I c.e3 I 0.55 I 0.54 1 I 1-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 Potential labour supply 12131 23.42 I 23.81 I 24.00 I 24.05 I 24.22 I 24.41 I 24.30 1 24.17 1 24.11 1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------· Table 3 Earnings, costs and prices ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 I 1961 I 1962 I 1963 I 19&4 I 1965 I 1966 I 1967 I 1968 1 1969 1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 (Annual changes, I) IIIII IIII Wage settlement index 301 2.4 I 2.8 I 0.8 I 9.0 I 5.9 I -o.a I e.o I 5.1 I 6.8 I Real post-tax value IIII I II I I of settleaents 302 -0.1 I -1.2 I -1.5 I 4.7 I 0.1 I -5.9 I 4.7 I -0.5 I 0.5 Average earnings: I III II I II pre-tax money earnings 1303 6.7 I 4.6 I 4.9 I 7. o I 6. 8 I 6.11 I 6.1 I 7.8 I 7.1 post-tax aone y earnings 1304 5.6 I 3.6 I 5.3 I 6. 4 I 4. 5 I 5. 2 I 5.8 I 5.9 I 6.0 post-tax real earnings Ncr·al costs per unit: 1305 I I -----3--.5---I-----0--.3---I -----3--. -2--I ------3.--2--I ------O-. -3--I ------1-.-2--I------3-.-5--I------1-.-0--I------0-.9-III II I II labour costs 1306 3.8 I 2.0 I 1.0 I 2. 8 I 3. 7 I 3.8 I 1.8 I 3. 9 I 4.1 ether domestic costs 1301 4.6 I 5.3 I 4. 1 I 5. 3 I 5. 6 I 6.11 I 4.2 I 3.2 I 9.4 i11ported inputs 1 total costs I 1308 1309 I -----------o3----..10------II-----------0--1--..48------II ------------21--..36------II ----------43--..----43----II ------------33--.. --81----II------------31--..--05----II-------------01--..9--5----II----------1--15--.·3--1----II------------24--..32---- 1output prices 1310 2.1 I 3.0 I 2.2 I 2. 6 I 3. 7 I 3. 3 I 1. 6 I 3.9 I 3.9 1Consuaer prices 1311 2. 0 I 3.2 I 2.0 I 3. 2 I 4.2 I 3.9 I 2. 2 I 4.8 I 5.1 ·-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------·----------------------- Historical Series 1970-1976 Table 2 Employment, output and incoae --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 I 1970 I 1971 I 1972 I 1973 I 1974 I 1975 I H76 I --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 (i billion at 1975 II I I I I I I I factor cost) II I I I I I I I North Sea output 12011 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.1 I 0.1 I 0.2 I 0.2 I 0.5 Public service output 12021 13.0 1 13.4 1 13.8 1 13.9 1 14.7 1 15.0 1 1~.3 Other domestic output 12031 72.1 1 73.2 1 75.0 1 79.8 1 79.5 1 77.0 1 11.5 I l--------------------------------------------------------------------- GDP at factor cost 12041 85.2 I 86.6 I 88.9 I 93.8 I 93.8 I 92.2 I 93.'1 I Shares of GDP (I): I incoae fro· eaployaent 1205 70.0 68.7 68.2 68. 1 71.6 74.0 13.0 gross trading incoae I and public rents !206 25.2 26.5 26.8 26. 9 23.0 ~0.9 ~1.e private rents 1207 4.8 4.8 5.0 5. 0 5.4 5. 2 5.2 (·illicn fta equivs) II I I I I I I Public service eaplat 12081 2.79 I 2.87 I 2.96 I 2.99 I 3.04 I 3.~~ I 3.~9 Other eaployaent 12091 14.95 I 14.58 I 14.4ll I 14.60 I 14.58 l 14.44 I 14.25 I 1--------------------------------------------------------------------- ( dllion persons) lI I I I I I I Total eaployaent 12101 22.84 I · 22.49 I 22.49 I 23.02 I 23.13 I 23.()4 I 2~.e2 Uneaployaent 12111 0.60 I 0.78 I 0.85 I 0.61 I 0.61 I 0.93 I 1.27 Bon-participants 1I2121l-----0-.5-7---I----0--.6-8---I ----0--.1-2---I ----0--.5-7---I -----0-.5-7---I -----0-.1--6--I-----0-.5--4- Pctential labour supply 12131 24.01 I 23.9ll I 24.07 I 24.21 I 24.31 I 24.13 1 25.C3 Table 3 Earnings, costs and prices -(-A-n-n-u-a-l--c-h-a-n-g-e-s-,--I)------ --- 1970 1971 1972 1973 19711 1975 151E -----------------------------,·--------------------------------------- IIII I I tlage settleaent index 301 11.8 I 13.8 1 9 .& I 11. 2 I 12. 1 I 39.3 I 10.1 Real post-tax value IIII I I of settleaents 302 -----3--.7---I-----5--.2---I ------2-.5---I -----0-.--4--I------3--.9---I -----1-0-.-9--I------E--.1-- Average earnings: IIII I I ~re-tax aoney earnings 303 12.8 I 11.9 I 12.2 I 12. 5 I 20.1 I 30.4 I 14.e ~ost-tax aoney earnings 304 11.0 I 12.0 1 13.0 I 11. 7 I 18.0 I 25.3 I 12.7 ~ost-ta x real earnings Noxaal costs per unit: labour costs ether doaestic costs i·1=orted inputs 305 -----4--. -1--I-----3-.-11---I -----5--.3---I -----0-.--3--I ------2-. -2--I ------2-.0---I------2-.-1-1- IIIII I 306 9.0 I 7.0 I 8. 2 I 9. 5 I 11.7 I 26. 1 I 12.0 307 308 7.9 ' 7.1 I 9. 8 I 3.8 I 8.3 I 1. 5 I 11. 6 I 21. II I 8.o 1 41.2 I 23. 5 I 12. 1 I 11.2 19.0 ...til ;:;t t;· i?· ~ :t. ...... 0 (,.) total costs I ·Output prices 309 -----8-.-11---I-----6--.6---I -----6--.6---I -----1-2-. -II--I-----2-2-.5---I -----2-1-.-6--I-----1-11-.-fi- --------------------------------------------------------------------- 310 7.0 I 9.6 I 8.11 I 11. II I 18. II I 23.9 I 1~.2 ~ ;:: I:>.. ~· Consuaer prices 311 6.6 I 8.3 I 7.11 I 11. 3 I 15. 4 I 22.8 I 15.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 Historical Series 1961-1969 ,l::o.. Table 4 Expenditure and disposable incoae g~ -----------------------------I----1-9-6-1---I----1-9-6-2---I----1-9-6-3---I----1-9-6-4---I----1-9-6-5---I----1-9-6-6---I----1-9-6-7---I----1-9-6-8----I ---1-9-6-9--1I ~ ;::;· ~ (R billion, 1975 akt pr) ~ Consuaers· expenditure 1401 46.1 I 47.4 I 49.4 1 51. 1 I 52.2 I 53.2 !:4.7 I 56.2 I 56.9 ~ Public curr expenditure en goods and serYices 1402 PriYate fixed investaentl403 Public fixed inYestaent 1404 I 16.9 I 7.5 I 4.7 I I 17.3 I 1.2 I s.o I I 17.5 I 7.3 I 5.3 I I 17.7 I s. 4 I 6. 2 I I 18. 1 I a. 1 1 6. 5 I 18.6 8.5 7.0 I 19.5 I 8.7 I e.o 1 I 19.7 I 9.4 I 8.0 I 19.3 9.9 7.5 "~" Stockbuilding 1405 Dcaestic expenditure 1406 I Exports of goods & serYsl407 0.8 I 76.0 I I 13.3 I 0.2 I 11.1 I I 13.6 I 0.2 I 79.7 I I 14. 1 I 1. 8 I as. 2 1 I 14. 7 I 1. 4 I 86.8 I I 15.4 I 0.9 0.3 I 0.9 I 1.2 88.3 -----9-1-.2---I-----9-4-.1---I-----9-4-.8-- II 16.0 16.2 I 18.1 I 19. 8 I Total final expenditure 1408 89.3 I 90.7 I 93.8 I <J~. 9 I 102. 3 I 1011.3 I 107.4 I 112.2 I 1111.6 I Iaports of goods & servsl409 I 15.8 I I 16.3 I I 16.9 I I 13. 3 I I 1a. 6 1 I 19.2 I I 20.5 I I 21.8 1 22.6 GDP at aarket prices I 1410 ----7--3-.5---I----7-4-.-11---I ----7-6--.9---I ----8-1--. -5--I -----8-3-.6---I -----a-s-.-1--1-----e-6-.-9--1-----9-0-.-II--I-----9-2-.0-- (i billion, 1975 values) Teras of trade effect Net incoae from abroad Ha tiona 1 incoae Pcst-ta x incoae: wages and salaries welfare benefits other private incoae total private incoae public sector incoae Financial balances: Px:i.ate sector surplus Public sector deficit Balance of pa yaents on current account 1I I I II I I 1411 2.1 I 2.4 2.4 I 2. 2 2. 5 I 3.0 3.3 2.9 3.2 11112 0.4 I 0.6 0.1 I :>. 6 o. 6 I 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 .s14131 ----7-6--.1---I ----7--7-.4---1----8-0--.0---I ----8-1-1-. -3--I -----8-6-.8---I ~----8-8-.-5--I -----9-0-.-5--I-----9-3----I-----9-5-.-8- I 1----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- II I I I I I I I I fla141 14151 36.4 I 4.0 I 36.8 I 4.2 I 38.1 1 4.7 I J9. 8 I 4. 8 I 40. II I 5. 3 I 41. 1 I s.s I 41.8 I 6.1 I 111 · 9 I 6.6 I 42.2 6.7 14161 16.6 I 16.1 I 11.3 I lB. 9 I 19. 1 I 18.9 I 19.2 I 20.5 I 20.6 I 1----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 111171 57.0 I 57.1 I 60.1 I 63. 5 I 64.8 I 65.6 I E1·. 1 I 69.0 I 69.6 IIII I I I I 111181 19.1 I 20.3 I 19.9 I 2(). 8 I 22.0 I 23.0 I 23.4 I 24.5 I 26.2 I 1----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- II I 111 9 I 14201 14211 I 2.9 I 2.8 I 0.0 I I 2.5 I 2.1 I 0.3 I I 3.6 I 3.2 I O. 3 I I 2. 4 I 3. 3 I -o. <J 1 I 2. 7 I 2. 8 I -o. 1 1 I 3. 2 I 3.0 I O. 2 I I 3.8 I II. 5 I -0.7 I I 2.8 I 3.4 I -0.6 I 1. 5 0.6 0.9 Historical Series 1970-1976 Table 4 Expenditure and disposable incoae 1--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------l I 1970 1 1971 1 1972 1 1973 1 1974 1 1975 1 1CJ76 1 -(-i--b-i-l-li-o--n-,-1-9-7-!:--m-k-t--p-r-)--I----I----------I----------I----------I----------I----------I-------------------1I II I I I I I Consuaers· expenditure 14011 58.1 1 59.6 1 62.7 1 63.8 1 63.7 1 63.4 3.7 Public curr expenditure I I I I I I I en goods and services 14021 19.7 1 20.2 1 21.0 1 21.5 1 21.9 1 22.9 23.7 Private fixed investaentt4031 Public fixed investaent 14041 10.1 1 7.7 I 10.6 1 7.6 I 11.4 1 7.4 I 12.6 1 8.4 I 11.7 1 8.8 1 11.7 8.8 1C.9 e.? stockbuilding Domestic expenditure 14051 1.0 I -0.4 I 0.2 I 2.6 I 1.1 I -2.3 -1.6 I I 1----------------------------------------------------------- ---------1 14061 96.6 1 97.7 1 102.6 1 108.9 1 107.1 1 1011.5 1C!:.'i 1 II I I I I I I Exports of goods & servsl4071 20.8 1 22.3 1 22.7 1 25.4 1 27.1 1 26.1 27.9 1 I 1---------------------------------------------------------------------1 Total final expenditure 14081 117.4 1 120.0 1 125.4 1 134.3 1 134.2 1 130.6 1 133.4 1 II I I I I I I I Iaports of goods & servsl4091 23.7 1 24.9 1 27.2 1 3J.3 1 30.3 1 28.2 1 25.8 1 I 1---------------------------------------------------------------------1 GDP at aarket prices 14101 93.7 I 95.1 I 98.1 1 101J.O I 103.9 I 102.3 I 103.6 I -(-i--b-i-ll-i-o-n--,-1-9-7-5--v-a-l-u-e-s-) --I----I----------I----------I----------I----------I----------I-----------I --------1t Tens of trade effect 14111 Net income from abroad 14121 I 3.7 1 0.7 1 I IJ.O 1 0.5 1 I 4.3 1 0.5 1 I 2.1J 1 1. 4 1 I -2.31 1.2 1 o.o I 1 c.s 1 I 0.4 1 C.3 1 Na tiona! income Pcst-ta x incoae: wages and salaries welfare benefits other private incoae total private income ~ublic sector incoae Financial balances: IIJ131 98.0 I 99.6 1 102.9 1 107.8 I 102.9 I 102.8 I 10 4. 2 I 1--------------------------------------------------------------------- II 141tq 14151 I 43.7 1 6.9 I I 44.5 I 7.0 I I 46.8 I 7.8 I I 48.0 I 7. 8 I I 49. 3 I a. 3 1 so. 1 I I 8.7 I 4f.4 5.2 14161 19.9 I 21.6 I 23.7 I 27. 3 I 22. 1 I 20 .. 9 I 22.4 I 1----------- 14171 70.4 I - - ----73.0 -I - - - ----78.3 -I - - - ------------------------- 83. 2 I 79.7 I 79.7 - I - - - - ---- eo.o - III II I 1111 81 27.6 I 26.6 I 24.5 I 24. 6 I 23.2 I 23. 1 I 24.2 I 1--------------------------------------------------------------------- Private sector surplus Public sector deficit Balance of payments on current account 14191 14201 14211 1 .3 I -0.1 I 1.4 I 3.6 I 1. 7 I 1.9 I 4.3 I 4.0 I 0.2 I 4. 4 I 5. 4 I -1. 1 I J. 4 I 7. 6 I -4 ·. 2 I 7. 4 I 9. 1 I -1.7 I 1.3 e.s -1.3 t'-1 ~ .i:.;.· [ :;gJ:.. 0 01 ~ s:t· Historical Series 1961-1969 !able 5 Balance of payaents ~ 1---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ~ l I 1961 I 1962 I 1963 I 19&4 I 1965 I 1966 I 1967 I 1968 1 1969 § ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (i aillion, 1975 prices} I I I I I I I I I I c ;::!;· Volume of exports of: fuels ether goods & services total IIIIII I II I 5011 5021 I 1112 I 12896 I I 1198 I 13012 I I 1190 I 13626 I I 478 I 111222 I I 542 I 14884 I I 587 I 15459 I I 559 I 156~2 1 I 660 1 174411 1 654 19108 l-----------------------------------------------------------------~----------------------4071 13308 I 13570 I 111116 I 14700 I 15426 I 16046 I 16212 I 18104 1 19762 cl' ~ ::0 ~ ~· ~ Vclume of imports of: food fuels I f 5031 5041 I I 4266 I 2398 I I I 41135 I 2685 I I I 4350 I 2855 I I I 4435 I 3J70 I I I 11350 I 3357 I I I 4459 I 3680 I 4612 3~12 I I I I I I 4435 1 4213 I 4394 4505 basic aaterials 5051 2583 I 2470 I 2612 I 2783 I 2754 I 2612 I 2612 1 2839 I 2783 semi-aanufact ures 5061 2420 I 2466 I 2699 I 3257 I 3211 I 31116 I 3ti3 1 11281 I 4408 finished manufactures 15071 1224 I 1291 I 1395 I 1100 I 1806 I 2050 I 2~22 1 2913 I 3188 services 15081 2898 I 2909 I 2946 I 3069 I 3146 I 2986 I 3Ce2 1 31115 1 3286 total 1I 4091~---1-5-7-8-9---I ---1-6-2-5-7---I ---1-6-8-5-7---I ---1-8-3-1-4---I ----1-8-6-2-4--I ----1-9-2-0-2--I ----2-0-4-7-3--1----2-1-8-2-5--1----2-2-5-6-3- (Index 1975=100) !eras of trade II I I I I I I I I 15091 115.74 I 117.69 I 116.81 I 113.94 I 115.86 I 118.26 I 119.C1 1 115.68 1 116.39 (i million, 1975 values) Balance of trade on goods and services Net income froa abroad Current balance Net long-term capital Net trade credit Basic balance Net short-tera inflow Balance for official financing I I I 1510 -375 -266 -340 -1455 -670 -195 -1004 -800 385 1412 425 598 683 557 607 429 330 214 557 I 1421 so I 333 I 343 I -398 I -63 I 234 I -674 1 -587 1 942 I 511 44 I -349 1 -500 I -90 3 I -411 I -21111 1 -226 I 26 I -68 1512 -100 I -180 I -233 I -116 I -155 I -1155 I -ll27 I -606 1 -371 I 1513 --------6---I------1-9-6---I ------3-9-0---I -----1-9-1-8---I ------6-2-9---I ------4--6-4--1-----1-3--2-7--I-----1--1-6-7--1------5-0-4- 1514 I ------9-3-5---I-----7-1-1---I ------23-8---I ------1-5-9--I ------2-2--5--I ------8--0-5--I-------1-~-0--I-----1-8-7-1-1--1------9-0-3- 1515 -941 I 515 I -152 I -1759 I -854 I -1270 I -1~17 I -3041 I 1407 I IIII I II (Indices, 1970=100) II Vol uae of 11orld trade 15161 48 I 51 I 55 I .61 I 65 I 70 I i5 I E3 I 92 liorld price of manufactures II 15171 85 I 86 I 87 I 88 I 90 I 91 I S1 I 92 I 95 World terms of trade fort I raw aa terials 151 e 1 99 I 99 I 102 I 107 I 104 I 106 I 102 I 1 01 I 101 cil 15191 142 I 140 I 136 I 131 I 122 I 113 I 119 I 120 I 110 UK unit costs relative I I to world price of mfs: I I in sterling 15201 85.9 I 88.2 1 89. 1 I 90.6 I 90. s I 9 2. 1 I 9.3.2 I 96.7 I 98.1 in foreign currency 15211 1 00.8 I 104.1 I 104.9 I 106. 3 I 106.8 I 108.3 I 106.9 I 97.3 I 99.0 II Weighted exchange rate 15221 117.3 I 118.0 1 117.7 1 111.11 I 111.6 I 117.6 I 1111.1 I 1 00.6 I 101.0 -----------------------------------·-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------· · Historical Series 1970.1976 Table 5 Balance of payments -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 1970 I 1971 I 1972 I 1973 I 1974 I 1975 1 1S76 -(-i--m--il-l-io--n-, -1-9-7-5--p-r-ic-e-s-)-------1----------I----------I ----------I ----------I ----------I ----------I--------- I IIII I I Vclume of exports of: I I I I I I I fuels 5011 785 I 791 I 782 I 828 I 753 I 730 I EE3 ether goods & services 5021 20022 I 21476 I 21963 I 24562 I 26391 I 25363 I 27C22 --------------------------------------------------------------------- tctal 407 20807 I 22267 I 22745 I 25390 I 27144 1 26093 1 27905 Volume of imports of: food 503 I I I 4435 I I I 4435 I I I 4524 I I I 4524 I I I 4391 I I I 43116 1 4524 fuels 5041 4843 I 5279 I 5279 I 5422 I 5135 I 4310 I 4219 basic mate rials 5051 2839 I 2583 I 2641 I 2952 I 2641 I :C214 I :tf:E3 semi-manufactures 5061 4653 I 4903 I 5528 I 6370 I 6882 1 6150 1 f7i5 finished manufactures 5071 3462 I 3981 I 5067 I 6420 I 6623 I 6655 I 7147 services total 5081 3500 I 3701 I 4190 I 4594 I 1.1608 I 4573 I 4403 4091l---2-3-7-3-3---I---2-4-8-8-1---I ---2-7-2-2-9---I ----3-02-8-1---I ----3-0-2-81---I ----2-8-2-4-8--I----2-9-E-1-1- (Index 1975=100) II I I I I I I 'Ierms of trade 15091 118.13 1 119.29 I 118.55 I 108.54 I 93.49 I 100.00 I 101.50 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (i ·illion, 1975 values) I I I Balance of trade on I 1. I goods and services 1510 740 I 1403 I -210 I -246 1 I -5392 I -2155 I -1551 Net income fro· abroad 1412 658 I 493 I 460 I 1376 I 1222 I 482 I 285 current balance --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1421 13 99 I 1896 I 249 I -1085 I -4170 I -1673 I -1266 Net long-tera capital 1511 48 I 390 I -261 I 10 3 I 1334 I 481 I 407 Net trade credit 1512 -380 I -726 I -345 I -333 I -806 I -410 I -53e Basic balance I ----------~---------------------------------------------------------- 1513 1067 I 1560 I -356 I -1315 I -3641 I -1602 I -1596 Net short-term inflow I 514 1389 I 3942 I -1692 I 152 I 1558 I 123 I -111EE Balance for I 1515 ----2-4-5-6---I-----55-0-3---1-----2-0-4-8---I -----1-1-6-3---I -----2-0-8-3---I -----1-4-7--9--I-----3-0---4- -(-oIn-f-df-ii-cc-ei-as-l,-f-1i-9n-7a-0n-=c-1i-0n-0g-) ------I--------------I----------I----------I----------I----------I----------I--------- Vcluae of vorld trade I 5161 100 I 107 I 116 1 130 I 141 I 1311 I 145 llcrld price of manufactures 15171 100 I 103 I 104 I 112 I 137 I 148 I 1119 . llorld teras of trade fort I I I I I I I I C'l ~ "0 raw aaterials cil UK unit costs relative to vorld price of mfs: 'I in sterling in foreign currency 1518 I 15191 II II 15201 15211 II 100 100 100.0 100.0 I I I I I I I 96 I 118 I I I 106.8 1 106.6 I I 102 I 111 I I I 113.6 I 109.5 1 I 127 I 125 I I I 117. 7 I 101. s 1 I 130 I 278 I I I 113. 5 I 93.8 I I 105 I 261 I I I 129.9 I 97.6 I I 110 I 22 I I I 14S.5 I 92.3 I I t.l.'.· [ ::t.. ~.::.s. ~ Weiqh ted e xchanqe rate 15221 1 oo.o 1 99.8 I 96.4 I 86. 3 I 82.7 I 75. 1 I f2.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- J 0 STRATEGY 1: Conventional policies oo Table 1 suaaary 1--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------t I I 1976 I 1971 I 1978 I 19H I 1980 I 19E 1 I 1SE2 I 1983 I 1984 1 1985 I 1-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- l (1 nnual changes, I) II I I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I ICcnsuaers expenditure 14011 0.6 1 2.9 1 3.3 1 4.9 1 5.6 1 4.7 1 tt.O 1 4.8 1 3.3 1 2.2 I Public curr expenditure I I I I I I I I I I I 1 en goods and services 14021 3.5 I -0.3 I -0.5 1 J.CJ 1 1.3 1 1.8 1 2.l 1 2.1 1 2.1 1 2.2 !Fixed investaent 11011 -rt.6 I -3.2 I 4.2 I 2.4 I 5.4 I 6.7 I tt.3 I 3.0 I 3.1 1 2.2 I II I I I I I I I I I GDP at market prices 14101 1.2 I 4.3 I 5.3 I 4.2 I 4.7 I 11.3 I 3.7 I 4.1 I 2.8 I 1.6 National incoae 14131 1.3 I 3.7 I 4.8 I rt.O I 4.4 I 11.0 I 11.0 I 4.4 I 2.8 I 1.7 ~ § c :;::i;· cl' ~ ,"~.". ~ (Thousands) Oneaployaent (Annual changes, I) Yoluae of world trade II I 1211 1274 I 1364 1 1392 I 1453 I 11189 I 1!:63 I H36 I 11CC 1811 I 1939 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------1 1 IIIII I I II 1516 8.2 I 8.0 I 9.0 I 9.0 I 9.0 I 9.0 I s.c I 9.0 9.0 I 9.0 I World teras of trade for aanufactures 1 1102 I -5.1 I I -0.9 I o.o I I -o.o I I I 0.0 I -o.o I I -c.o I I o.o o.o I I o.o I I sterling exchange rate 1522 -11.3 I -8.7 I -5.5 I -6.8 I -6.2 I -5.1 I -4.9 I -4.5 -4.2 I -4.4 I UK unit costs relative 1 to world price of afs 1521 I -5.5 1 I -3.0 1 o.o I 1 o.o I 1 -o.o I 1 o.o I 1 -o.o I 1 -o.o o.o I 1 -o.o I 1 Yoluae of exports I 1407 I 6.9 I I 9.9 I I 12.5 I I 9.8 I I 9.0 I I 8.4 I I 7.6 I 7.6 I 6.9 I I 5.1 I Yoluae of iaports 11409 5.5 I 3.2 I 9.2 I 7.9 I 9.4 I 9.1 I 7.2 I 7.7 6.5 I 5.11 I -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (i billion, 1975 values) 1 IIII I I II I Balance of pa yaents on I 1 current account 14211 I -1.3 I I -0.1 I I 0.11 I I l. 9 I I o. 5 I I -o. 1 1 I 0. 4 I I 0.9 I I 1·1 I 1· 1 (Annual changes, I) II I I I I I I I I I ._fl,l. Average aoney earnings 13031 14.8 I 11.3 I 14.0 I 11. 1 I 114.8 I 13.5 ' 13.8 I 12.9 I 12.6 I 13.6 Consuaer prices 13111 15.5 I 11.2 I 11.3 I 11. 9 I 11. 1 I 10.5 I 10.3 I 9.5 I 9. 7 I 9.9 Post-tax real earnings 13051 -2.14 I 0.8 I 1. 2 I 4. 9 I 11.1 I 2. 5 I 2. 9 I 4.1 I 1. 8 I 2. II (i billion,1975 values) 1 Discretionary tax I1 xed uction 110 81 I -o .o I 1 I I 1.7 I I I 1. 8 I I I 3. 2 I I I 5.0 I 'I 5.3 I I I !:.7 I I I 7.2 I 7.1 6.8 (i billion,1975 values) 1 Public sector borrowing 1 1 Iequireaent 11031 8.9 I 8.7 I 5.6 I 5.3 I 6.0 I 5.3 I 11.5 I 4.7 I 4.2 I 4.0 Doaestc Credit Bxpansionl1041 7.0 I 7.0 I 6.9 1 7. 4 1 7.6 1 6.6 1 t.2 1 6.9 1 5.9 1 5.2 (lDnual changes, 'I) !Ioney supply II II 11051 13.1 I 16.11 I 15.8 I 17.9 I 11.7 I 111.5 I 111.0 I 15.0 I 12.2 I 11.2 Bank rate I IILR ('lp.a.) Jl06t 11.7 I 10.2 I 9.9 I 10.9 I 10.5 I 9.6 I 9.4 I 9.1 I 8.9 I 9.1 I --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 STRATEGY 1: Conventional policies Table 2 E·ploy·ent, output and income --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 I 1976 I 1977 I 1978 I 1979 I 1980 I 1981 I 1'182 I 1983 I 1984 I 1985 I -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (£ billion at 1975 II I I I I I I factor cost) II I I I I I I North Sea output 12011 Public service output 12021 0.5 I 15.3 I 1. 3 I 15.4 1 2.3 I 15.4 I 3. o I 15. 5 I 3. 6 I 15.7 I 4.0 I 16.0 I 4.4 I 16.3 I 14.8 I 16.6 5.3 I 17.0 I 5. 1 17. 4 Other domestic output 12031 77.5 I 80.5 I 84.6 I 87. 6 I 91. 2 I 94.1 I SE.1 I 1 02. C I 104.5 1 106.2 I 1--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDP at factor cost 12041 93.4 I 97.3 I 102.3 I 106.2 I 110.4 I 114.6 I 11e.7 I 123.5 I 126.8 I 128.7 Shares of GOP (I): I I inco·e fro· e·ploy·ent 12051 73.0 I 69.4 I 67.8 I 67. 4 I 66. 1 I 65.3 I 65.0 I 64.4 I 64.3 I 65.0 gross trading income I f. ·. and public rents 12061 21.8 I 25.5 I 27.1 I 21. 6 I 28.9 I 29.8 I 3C.1 I 30.6 I 30.7 I 2CJ.9 --p-r-iv--a-te---re--n-ts------------1-2-0-71-------5-.2---I------5-.-1--I------5-. -1--I------5-. -0--I------5-.-0--I------4-.-9--I------4-.-9--I------4-.-9--I------5-.-0--I------5-. -1- (·illion ftm equivs) II I I I I I I I I .I Public service eaplmt J2C81 3.29 I 3.32 I 3.32 I 3.34 I 3.37 I 3.43 I 3.50 I 3.5E I 3.65 I 3.74 Other e·ployment 12091 14.25 1 14.11 I 14.06 I 14.00 I 13.94 I 13.91 I 13.87 I 13.85 I 13.76 I 13.59 I 1---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 (aillion persons) 'total e·ployaent II 12101 III 22.82 I 22.78 I 22.85 I I 22.90 I I 23.00 I I ~3.15 I I 23.31 I I II 23.50 I 23.59 I 23.57 I Dnemploy·ent 12111 1.27 I 1.36 I 1.39 I 1.45 I 1.49 I 1.56 I 1.:4 I 1.70 I 1.81 I 1.94 I Non- pa rtici pants 12121 C.94 I 0.98 I 0.99 I 1.02 I 1.03 I 1.07 I 1.10 I 1.12 I 1.17 I 1.22 I I 1---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 Potential labour supply 12131 25.03 I 25.12 I 25.23 I 25.37 I 25.52 I 25.78 I 26.04 I 26.32 I 26.57 I 26.72 I --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 'Iable 3 Earnings, costs and prices 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1CJE2 1983 1984 1985 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Annual changes, I) II I I II I I I I I iage settle·ent index 13011 10.1 I 7.6 I 15.4 I 14. 1 I 11. 2 I 11.6 I 11.1 1 10 .1 I 11.2 I 12.0 Real post-tax value of settle·ents II 13021 ------- -·-1--II------4--.0---II------3-.0---II-----2--. -0--II ------1-.-0--II------1-.-0--II------1-.-0--II------1-.-o--II------1-.-0--II------1-.0-- l verage earnings: pre-tax ·one y earnings 303 I 14. 8 1 I 11 · 3 I I 14. 0 I I 11. 1 I I 14. a I I 13. 5 I 13. e I I I 12.9 I I 1 2. 6 I 13. 6 post-ta · ·one J earnings 304 12.7 I 12.2 I 12.6 I 17.4 I 16.4 I 13.2 I 13.5 I 14.0 I 11.7 I 12.6 post-tax real earnings 305 -2.4 I 0.8 I 1.2 I 4.9 I 4.7 I ~.s I 2.9 I 4.1 I 1.8 I 2.4 !cr·al costs per unit: --------------------------------------------~------------------------------------------------------1 IIII I I II II labour costs 306 12.0 I 6.5 I 9.8 I 13.1 I 10.8 I 9.1 I 1C.C I 9.1 I 9.0 I 9.9 I other do·estic costs 307 17.2 1 14.0 I 13.6 I 13.1 I 13.1 I 12.1 I 11.6 I 11.4 I 11.0 I 11.1 I !·ported inputs total costs ~ out~ut prices 3C8 19.0 I 16.2 I 12.3 I 11.8 I 10.8 I 9.7 I 9.9 I 9.4 I 8.9 I 8.7 I ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 309 14.6 I 10.3 I 11.3 I 12.9 I 11.3 I 10.2 I 10.3 I 9.6 I 9.4 I 9.8 I 13101 -----1-5-.2---1-----1-1-.6---I-----1-1-.-1--I-----1-2-.-6--I-----1-1-.-9--I-----1--0-.7--I-----1--0-.4---I----1--0-.0---I------9-.6---I-----9--.8-1I Consumer prices 13111 15.5 I 11.2 I 11.3 I 11.9 I 11.1 I 1C.5 I 1C.3 I 9.5 I 9.7 I 9.9 I --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 t-.1 ~ .~.·. [ ;J.. ~ ;:s I:>. R' .... STRATEGY 1: Conventional policies 0 Table 4 Expenditure and disposable incoae ·-----------------------------1----1-9-7-6---I ----1-9-7-7---1----1-9-7-8---1----1-9-7-9 ---I ----1-9-8-0---I ~---1-9-8-1---1----1-9-8-2---I----1-9-8-3---I----1-9-8-4---I----1-9-8-5--1I -(-t--b-i-ll-i-o-n-,-1-9-7-S---a-k-t--p-r-)--I--------------I----------I----------I----------I----------I----------I-----------I ----------I ----------I--------1I I consuaers· expenditure 11101 I 63.7 1 I 65.6 1 I 67.7 1 I 71.0 1 I 75.0 1 I 78.5 1 I 1.6 1 I es.s 1 I 88.4 1 I 90.4 1 Public curt: expenditure I I II I I I I I II en goods and services 1402 23.7 1 23.6 1 23.5 1 23.7 1 24.0 1 ~11.5 1 ~~.c 1 25.5 1 26.0 1 26.6 1 Private fhed investaentlll03 10.9 I 11.1 I 12.11 I 12.7 I 13.11 I 111.3 I 111.8 I 15.1 I 15.11 I 15.11 I Public fixed investaent 111011 8.7 I 7.8 I 7.3 I 7.5 I 7.9 I 8.11 I E.9 I 9.3 I 9.8 I 10.3 I Stockbuilding 11105 -1.6 I -0.1 I 1.9 I 1.9 I 2.1 I 2.2 I 2.2 I 2.11 I 1.9 I 1.2 I i 0 :;:!;· ~ ~ ~ "'1;;· ~ Dcaestic expenditure I 11106 - -- -----105.5 -I -- -----108.1 - -I - -------112.9 -I -- - ----116.9 - -I - -- -----122.4 -I -- - -1-2-7-.-9- -I - -- -----132.11 -I -- - -1-3-7-. -8- -I - -- -----141.5 -I- - - ----143.9 - I IIII IIIII Exports of goods & servs11101 27.9 1 30.7 1 34.5 1 37.9 1 41.3 1 44.8 1 45.2 1 51.9 I 55.5 I 58.3 'fetal final expenditure I 1408 - - - ----133.4 - -I - - - ----138.8 - -I - - - ----147.11 - -I - - - ----1511.8 - -I - - - ---163. -7 -I - - - -1-1-~-.-7- -I - - - -----H0.6 -I - - - -----189.7 -I - - - -----196.9 -I- - - ----202.2 - I IIIIIIIII Iaports of goods & servs 11109 29.8 1 30.8 1 33.6 1 36. 3 1 H. 7 t 113.3 1 ~~~.II 1 49.9 1 53.2 1 56.1 I 1--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDP at aarket prices 14101 103.6 I 108.0 1 113.7 I 118.5 I 124.0 I 129.4 I 1311.3 I 139.8 I 1113.7 I 146.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (t billion,1975 values) I I I I I II I I I I Teras of trade effect 14111 0.4 I 0.1 I 0.2 I ::1.3 I 0.11 I 0.5 I 0.6 I 0.7 I 0.8 I 0.8 Net incoae fro· abroad 4121 0.3 I -0.1 I -0.7 I -1.0 I -1.6 I -2.2 I -2.0 I -1.7 I -2.0 I -1.9 l--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- lla tional incoae 4131 104.2 I 108.0 I 113.3 I 117.8 I 122.9 I 127.8 I 132.8 I 138.7 I 142.6 I 145.0 Pest-tax incoae: t------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~--------------1 I III I I I I I II ·ages and salaries welfare benefits 4141 41St 48.4 I 9.2 I 48.8 I 10.0 I 49.5 I 10.3 I 52.0 I 10.9 I 511.7 I 11.5 I 56.4 I 12.1 I ~e.4 I 12.5 I 61.4 I 13.2 I 62.7 I 13.7 I 611.2 I 14.2 I other private incoae 11161 22.4 I 26.4 I 28.2 I 28.6 I 30.5 I 31.7 I 3~.5 I 34.2 I 34.8 I 34.0 I ~ total private incoae 1---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------l 4171 ao.o 1 85.2 1 88.0 1 91.5 1 96.7 I 100.2 I 103.5 I 108.7 I 111.2 I 112.4 I I IIII I I IIII public sector incoae 4181 24.2 1 22.8 1 25.2 1 26.3 1 26.2 1 ~7.6 1 29.3 1 30.0 I 31.4 t 32.6 I 1---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------l Financial balances: I I I I I I I I I I I I IIIII IIIII Pri Ya te sector surplus 4191 7.3 I 8.6 I 6.2 I 6.0 I 6.11 I 5..3 I 5.0 I 5.8 I 5.6 I 5.3 I Public sector deficit 4201 8.5 I 8.6 I 5.8 I 5.1 I 5.9 I 5.11 I ll.f I 11.9 I 4.4 I 4.2 I Balance of pa yaents on I I I I I I I I I II current account 11211 -1.3 I -0.1 I 0.4 I 0.9 I o.s I -0.1 I C.4 I 0.9 I 1.1 I 1.1 I --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------· STRATEGY 1: Conventional policies 1able 5 Balance of paraents -----------------------------1----1-9-7-6---I----1-9-7-7---I----1-9-7-8---I----1-9-7-9---I----1-9-8-0---I----1-9-8-1---I----1-9-8-2----I ---1-9-8-3----I---1-9-8-4----I---1-9-8-5--1I (£ lli.llion, 1975 prices) Vol uae of exports of: fuels 1501 other goods & services 1502 883 27022 1204 29469 2332 32170 3309 34576 4414 36873 5453 39317 fC64 42124 6675 45191 7384 48067 7171 51100 total Vcluae of iaports of: food fuels basic aa te rials seai-aanufactures finished aanufactures services total 407 27905 I 30673 I 345.02 1 3788 5 1 41287 I 144770 1 4818 I 51 866 I 551451 I 58271 IIIII II I I I 503 4524 I 4491 I 4497 1 450 2 I 14507 I 14512 I 4518 I 4523 I 4528 I 4534 504 4279 I 3615 I 3786 1 388 2 I 4031 I 4320 I 45E3 I 14893 1 5087 I 5219 505 2683 I 2768 I 2969 I 2955 I 2971 I 2989 I 293 I 3015 I 2960 I 2879 1506 6775 I 7559 1 8681 1 91417 I 10312 I 11292 I 12214 I 131492 I 1144114 1 15234 1507 7147 I 7437 I 8559 I 10189 I 12301 I 14360 I 15SE5 I 11127 I 19671 I 211J30 1508 4403 I 4901 I 5114 I 5326 I 5543 I 5182 I H28 I 6274 I 6529 I 6787 I 1409 ---2-9-8-1-1---I ----30-7-7-3---I ---3-3-6-0-6---I ----3-6-27-0---I ----3-9-6-6-5--I ----q-3-2-5-5--I----4-6-3-1-1--I----4-9-9-2-5--I----5-3-1-8-9--I----5-6-0-8-4- (Index 1975=100) 'feras of trade II I I I I I I I I I 15091 101.50 I 100.28 I 100.33 I 100.40 I 100.64 I 100.78 I 10G.E9 I 101.04 I 101.20 I 101.21 (£ aillion, 1975 values) Balance of trade on goods and services Met incoae fro· abroad Current balance Bet long-tera capital Met trade credit 510 I -1551 I -14 I 1096 I 190 3 I 2032 I 2008 I 2403 I 2645 I 3094 I 3019 4121 285 I -67 I -696 I -1J 18 I -1556 I -2152 I -2016 I -1740 1 -1984 1 -1896 4211 -----1-2-6-6---I-------8-1---I-----4-0-0---I -----8-8-5---I------4-7-6--1------1-4--4--I------3-8-7--I------9-0-5--I-----1-1-1-0--1-----1-1-2-3- 5111 207 I 637 I 265 I 176 I 610 I 1231 I 10 51 I 567 1 362 I 505 5121 -538 I -982 I -1072 I -106 1 I -1086 1 -1087 I -1106 I -1156 1 -1173 1 -1062 Basic balance Bet short-tera inflow Balance for official financing 5131 -1596 I -427 I -406 I 0I 0I 0I 332 I 316 I 299 I 566 5141 -1488 I -359 I 155 I 1037 I 933 I 532 I 1015 I 1428 I 1631 1 1825 5151l-----3-0-8-4---I------7-8-6---I ------2-5-2---I ----1-0-3-7---I ------9-3-4--I------5-3-2--I-----1-3-4-6--I-----1-7-4-4--I-----1-9-3-1--I-----2-3-9-0- I IIII I I II I (Indices, 1970=100) Voluae of world trade 15161 145 1 157 I 171 I 186 1 203 I 221 I 241 I 263 1 286 1 312 ioEld price of aanufactures 15171 149 I 157 I 164 I 173 I 181 I 190 I 2CC I 210 I 220 I 231 loJ:ld teras of trade for 1 raw aaterials j5181 110 I 110 I 110 I 110 I 110 I 110 I 110 I 110 I 110 I 110 I oil 15191 282 I 290 I 290 I 290 I 290 I 290 I 290 I 290 I 290 I 290 IOK unit costs relative 1 to world price of afs: 1 in sterling ::= 1 in foreign currency 15201 15211 148.5 I 157.8 I 92.3 I 89.5 I 167 ·.1 I 89.5 I 179.2 I 89.5 I 191.0 I 89.5 I 201.4 I 89.5 I 211.8 I E9.5 I 221.8 I 89.5 I 231.6 I 242.3 89.5 I 89.5 I !Weighted e:rchange rate 15221 62.1 I 56.7 I 53.6 I 49.9 I 46.8 I qq.4 I q2.3 I 40.3 I 38.6 I 36.9 ·-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ~ ~ S:· ::t. R ::gto. ~ ~ ...... STRATEGY 2: Devaluation ""' Table 1 Suaaary ----------------------------------------------------------------~---------------------------------------------------------------1 I 1976 I 1977 I 1978 I 1979 I 1980 I 1981 I 1SS2 I 1983 I 1984 I 1985 I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------·-------------- (Annual changes, I) II I I I I I I II I I I I I I consuaers expenditure 14011 0.6 I 2.9 I 2.5 I 3. 8 I 5. 9 I 4.8 I 3.3 I 7.7 I 6.6 I 6.5 Public curr expenditure 1 I en goods and serYices 14021 I 3.5 I I -0.3 I I -o.5 1 o. 9 I I I 1. 1 I I 1. 7 I 1.5l I 1. 6 I 1.6 I 1. 6 Fixed investaent 11011 -4.6 I -3.2 I 6.3 I 2. 6 I 9. 1 I 10. 1 I ~.4 I 10.4 I 11.6 I 8.5 GDP at aarket prices Ha tional inco!,le II 1144113011 I 1.2 I 1. 3 I I 4.3 I 3.7 I I 5. 2 I 4.8 I I 4. 1 I 3. 8 I I 5. 8 I 5. 5 I I 5.0 I 4.6 1 4. 6 I ~.0 I 7.9 I 8.2 I 6.9 I 6.6 I 5.5 5.3 (Thousands) II I I I I I I I I I -O-n-e-a-p-lo--y-a-en--t -------------1-2-1-1-1-----1-2-7-4--I-----1-3-6-4--I-----1-3-9-5--I-----1-4-5-3--I-----1-11-2-9--I-----1-1-14-5--I-----1-4-3-7--I-----1-2-6-3--I-----1-0-5-8--I------8-5-1- (Annual changes, I) II Voluae of vorld trade 15161 8.2 I 8.0 I 9.0 I 9. 0 I 9.0 I 9.0 I S.O I 9.C I 9.0 I 9. 0 World teras of trade for aanufactures II 11021 -5.1 I -0.9 I 0.0 I -o. 0 I o.o I -o.o 1 -c.o 1 o.o I o.o I o.o Sterling exchange rate 15221 -17.3 I -8.7 I -5.8 I -15. 8 I -8.2 I -6.8 I -2~.2 I -9.1 I -7.1 I -6.3 OK unit costs relatiYe I I to vorld price of afs I 5211 -5.5 I -3.0 I -o.o 1 -7.7 I 0.0 I -o.o 1 -H.e I 0.0 I o.o I -o. o II Voluae of exports Voluae of iaports 14071 14091 6.9 I 5.5 I 9.9 I 3.2 I 12.5 I 9. 2 I 11. 7 1 a. o 1 11. 3 I 12. 2 I 9.8 I 10. 8 I 12.7 I 9.4 I 14.3 I 15.5 I 11.8 I 12.4 I 9.0 9.5 (R billion, 1975 values) 1 Balance of pa yaents on I I current account 14211 I I -1.3 I I I -0.1 I I I 0.4 I I I 1. 4 I I I o. 9 I I I o. 1 I I I 2.2 I I I 2.4 I I I 2.0 I 1. 6 (Amnual changes, I) II II I I I I I I I Average aoney earnings f3031 14.8 1 11.3 I 14.6 I 18. 4 I 16. 2 I 1~.7 I 1.3 I 11t .3 I 14.7 1 15.4 Consuaer prices 13111 15.5 1 11.2 I 11.9 I 14. 0 I 13.4 I 12.7 I 15.8 I 14.5 I 12.9 I 11. 7 -P-o-s-t---ta-x---re--a-l-e--a-rn--in-g--s---1-3-0-51-------2--.4---I------o-.8---1------0-.4---I------5-. -2--I------4-.-6--I------1-.-7--I------4-.-2--I------5-.-0--I------0-.-1--I------3-.-9- (£ billion, 1975 values) 1 Discretionary tax 1I reduction 11081 -o.o 1 1.7 1 1.2 I 3.4 I 5.6 I 5.5 I e.7 I 13.2 I 13.3 I 15.0 -(-i--b-i-l-li-o--n-,-1-9-7-5--v-a-l-u-e-s-)--I----I----------I----------I----------I----------I----------I-----------I ----------I----------I----------I--------1I Public sector borrowing 1 I 1 1 1 1 I I I I I I requireaent 11031 8.9 I 8.7 I 5.5 I 6.3 I 7.7 I 6.5 I a.2 I 10.7 I 8.3 I 7.2 I Dc·estc credit Expansionf1041 7.0 I 7.0 I 6.8 I 8.4 I 9.2 I 7.5 I 10.1 I 12.5 I 9.4 I 8.8 I (Annual changes, I) !Ioney supply II II 11051 I t 13.1 I I I 16.4 I I I 15.6 I I I 21.1 I I I 21.9 I I I 16.5 I I I ~3.6 I I I 27.2 I I I 18.3 I I I 16.9 I Bank rate/ I!LR (lp.a.) 11061 11.7 I 10.2 I 10.1 I 12.6 I 12.1 I 11.0 I 13.6 I 12.8 I 11.2 I 10.6 I --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 c~ ;:t c ;3::;· ~ ~ ~ ;"";'';· ~ STRATEGY 2: Devaluation Table 2 Eaployaent, output and income t-----------------------------------------------------------------------~--------------------------------------------------------1 I,____________________________ I ----1-9-7-6---I----1-9-7-7---I----1-9-7-8---I----1-9-H----I----1-9-8-0---I----1-9-8-1---I----1-9-8-2---1----1-9-8-3----1---1-9-8-4----1----19-8-5--11 I (£ billion at 1975 I factor cost) I I II I I I I I I II III I I I I I II IRot:th Sea output 1201 0.5 I 1.3 I 2.3 I 3.0 I 3.6 I 11.0 I 11.4 1 ll.8 I 5.3 I 5.1 I tPublic service output I!Other doaestic output 1202 I1203 -----71-75-..35---II-----81-50.-.15-l--II-----81-45-..5-4--II-----81-75-..-65--II-----91-25-..-37--II-----91-65-.-.69--II-----1-10-E1-..22---II ---1-01-«-6;-..48---II----11-1-67-..77---11----1-12-65-..19-11I GDP at factor cost 1204 93.4 I 97.3 I 102.2 I 106.2 I 111.5 I 116.5 I 121.8 I 131.0 I 139.6 I 11l7.1 I I III I I I I I II Shares of GDP (I): I III I I I I I II iDcoae from eaployaent 1205 73.0 1 69.4 I 68.0 1 67.3 I 65.0 1 63.9 1 E1.e 1 58.2 1 56.4 1 56.0 1 gt:oss trading incoae I III I I I I I II and public rents 1206 21.8 I 25.5 I 27.0 I 27.8 I 30.2 I 31.4 I 33.5 I 37.4 I 39.3 1 39.9 1 p:dvate rents 1207 5.2 I 5.1 I 5.1 I 5.0 I 4.8 1 4.7 I 4.6 1 4.1l 1 4.3 1 ll.2 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 (llillion fta equhs) II I I I I I I I I II Public service eaplat 12081 3.29 I 3.32 I 3.32 I 3.34 I 3.36 I 3.1l2 I 3.1le I 3.53 I 3.58 1 3.63 I Other e·ployaent ( tillicn persons) 1otal eaployaent 12091 14.25 I 14.11 I 14.06 I liJ.OO I 11l.· OO I 11l.03 I 14.07 1 14.28 I 14.51 1 14.69 1 I 1---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 II I I I I I . I I I I I 12101 22.82 I 22.78 I 22.85 I 22.90 I 23.09 I 23.32 I 23.!:~ I 24.13 I 21l.68 I 25.15 1 Uneapl oyaent 12111 1.27 I 1.36 I 1.39 I 1.1J5 I 1.43 I 1.45 I 1.1111 1 1.26 1 1.06 1 0.85 1 Ron-pa rtici pants 12121 C.94 I 0.98 I 0.99 I 1.02 I 1.01 I 1.01 I 1.01 I C.93 I 0.83 I 0.72 I I t---------------------------------------~-----------------------------------------------------------1 Potential labour supply 12131 25.03 I 25.12 I 25.23 I 25.37 I 25.52 I 25.78 I 26.01l I 26.32 I 26.57 1 26.72 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~----------------1 'fable 3 Earnings, costs and prices , 1976 1977 1978 1919 1980 1981 1SS2 1983 1984 1985 (Annual changes, I) I I I I I I I. I I lage settleaent index 1301 10.1 I 7.6 I 16.6 1 15. 2 I 12. 5 I 11l.2 I 13.4 I 10.6 I 13.8 I 12.8 Beal post-tax value of settleaents 1302 I -8.1 I I -4.0 I I 3.0 I I 2. 0 I I 1. 0 I I 1. 0 I I 1. 0 I 1. o I I I 1.0 I 1. 0 lvexage earnings: --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------IIII II III pre-ta· aoney earnings 1303 14.8 1 11.3 I 14.6 I 18. 4 I 16. 2 I .15.7 I 16.3 I 14.3 I 14.7 I 15.4 post-ta· aoney earningst304 12.7 1 12.2 I 12.4 I 23. o I 18. 6 I 14.6 I 20.6 I 20.2 I 13.6 I 16. 1 post-ta· real earnings 1305 -2.4 I 0.8 I 0.4 I 5. 2 I 4. 6 I 1. 7 I ll.2 I s.o I 0.7 I 3.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rcnal costs per unit: I I I I I I I I I I I , labour costs 13061 12.0 1 6.5 1 10.4 1 14.3 1 12.0.1 11.7 1 12.3 1 9.9 1 10.6 1 11.1l 1 ether doaestic costs 13071 17.2 1 14.0 1 13.8 1 14.9 1 15.3 1 13.1l 1 16.2 1 16.2 1 13.0 1 12.6 I laported inputs 13081 19.0 I 16.2 I 12.5 I 18.8 I 13.9 1 11.5 I 2!:.6 t 16.9 1 12.4 1 11.1 1 I -- II total costs w !Output prices 1I30911----1-4-.-6--I-----1-0-.-3--I-----1-1-.-7--I-----1-6--.2---I -----1-3-.-5--1-----1-2-.-2--I-----1-E-.-2--1-----1-4-.-3---I ----1-2-.-3---1----1--1-.8-11 I 1---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 13101 15.2 I 11.6 I 11.5 I 15.1 I 14.4 I 12.7 I 16.7 I 15.5 I 13.0 I 12.1 I tConsuaer prices 13111 15.5 I 11.2 I 11.9 I 14.0 I 13.4 I 1~.7 I 1!:.8 I 14.5 I 12.9 I 11.7 I 1--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------l ~ ~ ~· [ ~ ~ ~ ~ ..... STRATEGY 2: Devaluation ,a:.. Table 4 Ellpendi ture and. disposable inco·e 1--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------l I I 1976 I 1977 I 1978 I 1919 I 1980 I 1981 I 1982 1 1983 1 1984 1 1985 1 ·------------------------------------------~-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 I (£ billion, 1975. ·kt pr) I II I I I I I II II IConsu·ers· expenditure 1401 I 63.7 1 I 65.6 1 I 67.3 1 69.8 I 73.9 1 I 77.5 1 I eo.o 1 I 86.1 1 I 91.8 1 I 97.8 1 I Public cur.r expenditure I III 1 I 1 1 11 I en qoods and servic4;1s 1402 23.7 I 23.6 I 23.5 I 23.7 24.0 I ~11.4 I ~11.9 I 25.3 I 25.7 I 26.1 I !Private -filled invest.entl403 10.9 1 11.1 I 12.3 1 12.14 13.4 1 111.7 1 15.0 1 16.8 1 19.1 1 20.5 1 !Public fixed inveshent 1404 8.7 I 7.8 I 7.8 I 8.3 9.1 I 10.1 I 11.1 1 12.1 1 13.1 t 114.14 1 Stockbuildinq Dc·estic expenditure 1405 -1.6 I -0.1 I 1.9 I 1.9 2.6 I 2.8 I 2.9 I 4.6 I 5.2 I IJ.9 I I --------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------~---------1 1406 105.5 1 108.1 I 112.8 1 116.1 123.0 1 129.5 1 133.9 1 1414.8 1 155.0 1 163.7 1 I Exports of qoods & senst407 I 27.9 1 I 30.7 I I 34.5 1 3B.5 I 42.9 1 I 41.1 1 I !:3.1 1 I 60.7 1 I 67.8 1 I 73.9 1 Total final expenditure 1I 408 ---1--3-3-.4---1---1--3-8-.8---I---1--4-7-.3---1----1-5-4-.7---1----1-6-5-.9---1----1-7-6-.-6--1----1--1-.-0--1----2-0-5-.5---1----2-2-2-.8---1----2-3-7-.6-- I I·ports of goods & senst409 I 29.8 1 I 30.8 I I 33.6 1 I 36.31 I 40.7 1 I 45.1 1 I 49.11 1 I 57.0 1 I 64.1 1 70.2 GDP at .arltet prices I --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1410 103.6 I 108.0 I 113.7 I 118.4 I 125.2 I 131.5 I 131.6 I 148.5 I 158.7 1 167.14 (£ billion,1975 values) Ter·s of trade effect 411 0.4 0.1 0.2 -(). 1 o. 1 0.3 o.o 0.3 0.5 0.14 Bet inco·e fro· abroad 412 0.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.8 -1. 4 -2.1 -1.5 -1.5 -2.2 -2.5 Na tiona! inco·e 413 104.2 I 108.0 I 113.2 I 117.5 I 12 3. 9 I 129.7 I 13t':.1 I 1147.2 I 156.9 I 165. 3 Pcst-ta x inco·e: IIII I I II I vaqes and salaries 1414 48.4 1 48.8 1 49. 1 I 51. 8 I 54.6 I 56. 1 I ~S.1 I 63.5 I 65.4 I 69.3 welfare benefits other private incoae total private inco·e 1415 9.2 I 10.0 I 10.3 I 10. 1 I 11. 1 I 11. 5 I 11.5 I 11 .6 1 11 .6 I 11.7 1416 22.4 I 26.4 I 28.0 I 29. 1 I 32. 5 I 31t. o I .31.1 I 45.4 I 49.4 I 51.0 -------------------------------------------------·-------------------------------------------------- 4111 80.0 I 85.2 I 87.4 I 91.5 I 98.3 I 101.6 I 1C8.4 I 120.6 I 126.LI I 132.0 IIIII I III public sector inco·e 4181 24.2 I 22.8 I 25.8 I 26.0 I 25.6 I 28.0 I 21.1 1 26.6 I 30.5 1 33.2 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 Financial balances: III I I I II II Private sector surplus 11191 I 7.3 I I 8.6 I I 6.1 I I 7.5 I I 8.5 I I 6.8 I I 10.5 I I 13.3 I I 10.5 I I 9.1 I Public sector deficit 11201 8.5 I 8.6 I 5.7 I 6.1 I 7.6 I 6.6 I e.3 I 1C.9 I e.s I 7.5 I Balance of pa y·ents on IIII I I I I II current account 11211 -1.3 I -0.1 I 0.4 I 1.4 I 0.9 I 0.1 I 2.2 I 2.4 I 2.0 I 1.6 I --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------· ~ § c :;:!;· ~ ~ ~ ;";';· ~ STRATEGY 2: Devaluation Table 5 Balance of payaents -----------------------------I----1-9-7-6---I----1-9-7-7---I----1-9-7-8---I----1-9-7-9---I----1-9-8-0---I----1-9-8-1---I----1-9-8-2----I ---1-9-8-3----I ---1-9-8-4----I----19-8-5--11 (i aillion, 197~ prices) Voluae of exports of: fuels 1501 ether goods & services 1502 883 27022 1204 29469 2332 32170 3309 35236 4414 38492 5453 416111 HEll llf:S98 6675 53976 73811 60425 7171 66717 total 1107 27905 30673 34502 38544 112906 47C94 530f:2 60651 67809 73888 Voluae of iaports of: food fuels basic aaterials seai-aanufact ures finished manufactures services 503 504 505 506 507 508 4524 4279 2683 6775 '7147 4403 4491 3615 2769 7560 7437 4901 4497 3783 2967 8673 8567 5114 450 2 388 3 2956 9329 10307 5326 4507 4119 3033 10396 13125 5543 11512 41168 3065 111159 15835 5782 4518 IIE30 3C74 12332 usse sc2e 4523 5500 3300 14326 23105 6274 4528 6124 3397 16212 27315 652~ 4534 6703 3355 17903 30913 6787 total 111091 29811 I 30773 I 33599 I 3630 3 I 40723 I 45121 ' 49381 I 57C28 I 64105 I 70194 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~-------------------------- (Index 1975= 100) II I I I I I I I I I '!eras of trade 15091 101.50 I 100.28 I 100.32 I 99.14 I 99.68 I 100.00 I 9E.ill I 99.12 1 99.42 1 99.37 (i aillion,1975 values) Balance of trade on goods and services let incoae froa abroad Current balance let long-tera capital let trade credit Bade balance let short-tera inflow Balance for official financing I I I 5101 -1551 I -15 I 1099 I 2143 I 2321 I 2232 I 3iCE I 3913 I 4191 I 4070 11121 285 I -67 I -681 I -776 I -1428 I -2087 I -1511 I -15113 I -2218 I -2465 1---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------l 4211 -1266 I -82 I 418 I 1366 I 893 I 1115 I 2195 I 2370 1 1974 I 1605 I 5111 207 I 637 I 253 I 42 I 569 I 1229 I 7711 I 702 I 833 I 1340 I 5121 -538 I -982 I -1077 1 -1408 I -1462 1 -1373 1 -2532 1 -2652 I -2406 1 -2184 1 l---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 5131 -1596 I -428 I -405 I 0I 1I 1I 438 I 421 I 401 1 761 I SUI -1488 I -360 I 236 I 3064 I 3053 I 2E03 I 7560 I 8546 I 8301 I 8355 I 51511-----3-0-8-4--I-------7-8-8--I-------1-1-0--I-----3-0-6-4--I-----3-0-5-4--I------26-0-4---I -----8-39-8---I-----8-9-6-6--I-----8-7-0-2--I-----9-1-1-6-lI IIIII I I IIII (Indices, 1970=100) Voluae of world trade lorld price of aanufactures lorld teras of trade for ra · aa terials cil OK unit costs relative = to world rrice of afs: in sterl ng 1 in foreign currency v. I leighted exchange rate -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STRATEGY 3: ReStriction of imports 5~ !able 1 Suaaary '1---------------------------------------------------------------~----------------------------------------------------------------l I 1976 I 1977 I 1978 I 1979 I 1980 I 19a1 I 19E2 I 19a3 I 1984 I 1985 (Annual changes, I) II II Ccasuaers e2penditure 14011 Public curr expenditure 1 I en goods and services I 11021 Pixed investaent I 101 I GDP at aarket prices II 14101 Ia tiona1 incoae 14131 I I 0.6 I I 3.5 I -4.6 I I 1.2 I 1.3 I I I 2.9 I I -o.3 I -3.2 I I 4.3 I 3.7 I I I 3. 1 I I -o. 5 J 6.9 I I 6.0 I 5.5 I 6. 0 I o. 7 I 4. 9 I 5. 7 I 5. 4 I 6.0 I 1. 1 I a. 5 1 5. 4 I 5. 1 I 6. 1 I 1. 6 I 9. 5 I 5.a 1 5.4 I ~.1 I 1. a 1 7.7 I ~. 2 I ~.4 I 6.5 I 1.a I 6.5 I 5.9 I 6.2 I 5.7 I 1. a I 1.3 I 5.4 I 5.2 I "· 7 1. 1 7. 5 4. 3 4. 3 (Thousands) I I I I I I I I I I Uneaployaent 1211 1274 1 1364 1 1350 I 1300 I 1250 I 1400 1 1130 I 1030 I 920 I BOO -(-A-n-n-u-a-l-c-h--a-n-g-e-s-,--I)-------I--- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Voluae of world trade 1516 a.2 I a.o 1 9.0 I 9. 0 I 9.0 I 9.0 I S.C I 9.0 I 9.0 I 9.0 11crld teras of trade for aanufactures I 1102 -5.1 I -0.9 I o.o I -o. o 1 o.o I -o.o 1 -o.o 1 o.c I o.o I o.o Sterling exchange rate 1522 -17.3 I -a. 1 1 -5.7 I -6.9 I -6.3 I -5.o 1 -11.6 I -3.9 I -3.0 I -2.6 OK unit costs relative I to world price of ·afs 1521 -5.5 I -3.0 I -o.o 1 -o. o 1 -o. o 1 0.0 I -o.c 1 0.0 I o.o I o.o I Vel uae of exports 11107 6.9 I 9.9 I 12.5 I a. 4 I B. 8 I 8. ~ I I. 5 I 8.4 I 7.9 I 5. 1 Voluae of iaports 1409 5.5 I 3.2 I 9.2 I 6. 7 I 9. 0 I 9.0 I 7.2 I 8.4 I 7.6 I 5.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (I of total iaports) Iaport restriction II 11071 I o.o I I -o.o 1 I 1. 1 I I 6. 0 I I 7. 3 I I 9. 3 I I 11.3 I 11. a I 1 I 12.7 I 15.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (£ billion,1975 values) I I I I I I I I I I I Balance of payHnts on I I current account 14211 I -1.3 I I -0.1 I I 0.4 I I 3. 7 I I o. 3 I I -0.11 I c.o I I I 0.5 I I 0.4 I o. 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (l anual changes, I) II I I I I I I I I I Average aoney earnings '13031 14.8 I 11.3 I 14.4 I 17. 3 I 14. a I 13.11 I 1.3.2 · 12.C I 1 0.9 I 11.0 Consuaer prices I 311 I Post-tas real earnings 13051 15.5 I -2.4 I 11.2 I o.a I 11.6 I 0.9 I 11. 7 I 5. 9 I 11. 4 I 4. 0 I 10. 1 I 3.6 I 9. 9 I 2.7 I 8.5 I 4.9 I B.O I 2.5 I 7. 6 2.9 (i billion,1975 values) I I I I I I I I I I I Diecretioaary ta s II I I I I I I I I I -(£-re-d-b-uil-cl-tii-oo-nn-,-1-9-7-5---v-a-lu--e-s)---Ip-o-a--l------o--.o---1------1-.7---I------1-. -5--I------3-. -5--I------4-.-9--I------6-.-1--I------E-.-!:--I------8-.-9--I------9-.-6--I-----1-o-. -3- Public sector borrowing I I xequireaent I 1031 a .9 I a. 1 1 5.6 I 5. 7 I 6. 0 I 5.8 I 11.6 I 5.0 I 11.3 I 3. B Doaestc Credit Expansionl1041 7.0 I 7.0 I 7. 1 I 8. 2 I 7.9 I 7. 5 I E. 9 I 7.9 I 7.0 I 6. 1 II (Annual changes, I) II !toney supply 11051 Bank rate 1 IILR (lp.a.) 11061 13.1 I 11.7 I 16.4 I 10.2 I 16.4 I 10.0 I 2:1. o I 11. 0 I 11.9 I 10. 5 I 16. 1 I 9. 5 I 111.8 I 9.2 I 16.1 I 8.6 I 13.3 I B.O I 11. 6 1.1 g~ ~ <;· ~ ~ :::0 ""~'· ~ STRATEGY 3: Restriction of imports ~able 2 Eaployaent, output and incoae ·1·-----------------------------I----1-9-7-6---I----1-9-7-7---I----1-9-7-8---I----1-9-7-9---I----1-9-8-0---I----1-9-8-1---I----1-9-8-2----I ---1-9-8-3----I ---1-9-8-4----I---1-9-8-5--1I ·-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1(£billionat 1975 II I I I I I I I I I I factor cost} II I I I I I I I I I !Rorth Sea output 12011 0.5 I 1.3 I 2.3 I 3.0 I 3.6 I 4.0 I 4.4 I 4.8 I 5.3 I 5.1 IPublic service output 12021 15.3 1 15.4 1 15.4 1 15.51 15.6 1 15.8 1 16.1 1 16.3 1 16.6 1 16.9 I!Other doaestic output I120311----7-7-.-5--1-----8-0-.-5--1-----8-5-.-3--1-----9-0-.-2--1-----9-4-.-7--1-----1-0-0-.2---1----1-C-~.-e---1----1-1-2-.6---1----1-1-9-.-0--1----1-2-5-.-1- GDP at factor cost 12041 93.4 I 97.3 I 103.0 I 108.6 I 113.8 I 120.0 I 126.3 I 133.7 I 140.9 I 147.1 I Shares of GDP (I}: I incoae fro· eaployaent t205 73.0 69.4 67.7 66.9 65. 4 64.2 63.4 62.4 61.4 61.2 gross trading incoae I and public rents 1206 21.8 25.5 27.3 28. 2 29.8 31. 1 31.9 33.0 34.0 34.2 pJ:iYate rents 1207 5.2 5.1 5.0 4. 9 4. 8 4. 7 11.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 (aillion fta equiYs) II I I I I I I I I I Public ser·ice eaplat 12C81 3.29 I 3.32 I 3.31 I 3.32 I 3.35 I 3.39 I 3.115 I 3.51 I 3.57 I 3.62 Other eaployaent 12091 14.25 1 14.11 1 14.10 I 14.15 I 14.19 I 14.28 I 14.38 I 14.53 I 14.66 I 14.75 I 1---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 (aillion persons) II I II I I I I I II Total eaployaent Oneaployaent 12101 12111 22.82 I 22.78 I 22.91 I 1.27 I 1.36 I 1.35 I 23.12 I 1.30 I 23.35 I 1.25 I 23.68 I 1.20 I 211.CII I 1.13· I 24.48 I 24.89 I 25.23 I 1.03 I 0.92 I o.ao I Ron-participants 12121 0.94 t 0.98 I 0.97 I 0.95 I 0.93 I 0.90 I c.e7 I c.e2 I 0.76 I 0.69 I I 1---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------l Potential labour supply 12131 25.03 1 25.12 I 25.23 I 25.37 I 25.52 I 25.78 I 26.011 I 26.32 I 26.57 I 26.72 I --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------· Table 3 Earnings, costs and prices -----------------------------I----1-9-7-6---I----1-9-7-7---I----1-9-7-8---I----1-9-7-9---I----1-9-8-0---I----1-9-8-1----I ----1S-8-2----I---1-9-8-3----I---1-9-8-4----I----19-8-5--1I ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~----------------------------------1 (Annual changes, I) II I I I I I I I I I I iage settleaent index 13011 10.1 1 7.6 1 16.0 1 13.6 1 11.6 1 1C.8 1 11.1 1 8.6 1 8.8 1 9.0 1 Real post-tal: value II I I I I I I I I II of settleaents 13021 -8.1 I -4.0 I 3.0 I 2.0 I 1.0 I 1.0 I 1.0 I 1.0 I 1.0 I 1.0 I l·erage earnings: pre-tax aone y earnings 303 14 .a I 1 I 11.3 I I 14.4 I I 17. 3 I I 14. 8 I I 13. II I I 13.2 I I 12. C I 1 o. 9 I I 11.0 post-tax aone y earnings 304 12.7 I 12.2 I 12.7 I 18. 3 I 15.8 I 14.0 I 12.9 I 13.9 I 10.8 I 10.8 post-tax real earnings 305 -2.4 I 0.8 I 0.9 I 5. 9 I 4. o I 3. 6 I 2.7 I 4.9 I 2.5 I 2.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- lcraal costs per unit: IIIII I II I labour costs 306 12.0 I 6.5 I 10. 1 I 13. 1 I 10. 8 I 9.4 I 5.3 I e.o 1 1.0 I 7.2 ' other doaestic costs 307 17.2 I 14.0 I 13.8 I 13. it I 13.2 I 12. 1 I 11.4 1 1 0.9 I 10.1 I 9.6 iaported inputs 308 19.0 I 16.2 I 12.7 1 12.8 I 11. 1 I 10.0 I s.9 1 s.c I a.o 1 7. 4 - total costs I ~ · Output prices Consuaer prices 309 -----1-4-.6---I-----1-0-.3---1-----1-1-.5---I-----1-3-. -o--I-----1-1-.-4--I-----1-0-.-0--I------s-.-e--1------8-.-8--I------7-.-9--I------7-.6-- 310 311 ----1-1-55-..25---II-----11-11-..62---II-----11-11-..6-3--II-----11-12-.. -87--II-----11-12-..0-II--II-----11-00-..-61--II-----1-s0-..-0s--II------98-..-25--II------88-..3-0--1I------77-..86-- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- t'.l Ci ti· -:::t. 2 )... ~ :: ~ ____.. STRATEGY~: Restriction of imports 00 !able II Expenditure and disposable incoae ----------------~------------I ----1-9-7-6---I----1-9-7-7---I----1-9-7-8---I ----1-9-7-9---I----1-9-8-0---I----1-9-8-1---I----H--8-2---I----1-9-8-3---I----1-98-1-1---I----1-9-8-5--11 (I billion,197!: akt pr) I I Ccnsuaers 1 expenditure 1401 63.1 I 65.6 I 67.7 I 71. 7 I 76.0 I 80.6 I Ell.e I 90.3 I 95.4 I 99.9 Public curr expenditure en goods and serri.ces 1402 23.7 I 23.6 I 23.5 I 23. 1 I 23.9 I 4: II. 3 I I 24. I' I 25.2 I 25.6 1 26. 1 Private fixed investaentlll03 10.9 I 11. 1 I 12.4 I 13.0 I 13.9 I 15. 1 I 16.0 I 16.8 I 17.9 I 18.9 Public fixed investaent 14011 8.7 I 7.8 I 7.8 1 R. 3 I 9. 1 I 10. 1 I 11.1 1 12 .1 I 13.1 I 111.11 Stcckb uilding 1405 -1 .6 I -0.1 I 2.2 I 2. 8 I 3. 0 I 3. 3 I 3. 5 I 4. 0 I 4.2 I 4.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dcaestic expenditure t406 1 05.5 I 108. 1 I 113.6 119. 4 I 12 5. 9 I 13 3. 4 I 140.2 I 148.4 I 156.3 I 163. 3 I II IIIIII Exports of goods & servsl407 27.9 I 30.7 I 34.5 37. 4 I 40.7 I 1111. 1 I 41.11 I 51 .4 I 55.5 I 58.3 tctal final expenditure 11108 133.4 t 138.8 I 11J8.1 I 156.8 I 166.6 I 177.5 I 18/.6 I 199.8 I 211.7 I 221.6 IIIIII II I Iaports of goods & servslll09 29.8 I 30.8 I 33.6 I 35.9 I 39.1 I 42.6 t ~~~./I 49.5 I 53.3 I 56.3 I ' ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 GDP at aarket prices 1410 103.6 I 108.0 I 111J.5 I 121.0 I 127.5 I 1311.9 I 1111.9 I 150.3 I 158.4 I 165.3 I ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 (l billion,1975 values) III I I I I I II II I I I I I I II !eras of trade effect 1411 0.4 I 0.1 I 0.2 I :>.3 I 0.11 I 0.5 I 0.6 I 0.8 I 1.0 I 1.0 Net incoae froa abroad 1412 0.3 I -0.1 I -0.7 I -1.1 I -1.7 I -2.11 I -2.3 I -2.2 I -2.7 I -2.9 Rational incoae '1413 1 04.2 I 108.0 I 114.0 I 12(). 2 I 126.2 I 133.0 I 140.2 ' 148.9 I 156.7 I 163.4 Pcst-ta x incoae: wages and salaries welfare benefits other private incoae total private incoae public sector incoae 1414 11115 1416 I 1417 I IIIH! I 48.4 I 9.2 I 22.4 I 80.0 I I 24.2 ' '48.8 I 10.0 I 26.4 I 85.2 ' I 22.8 I I 49.5 I 10. 3 I 28.5 I 88.3 I I 25.7 ' I 52. 9 I 1l. 8 I 29. 9 I 93. 6 I I 26. 6 I I 55.5 I 11.3 I 32. 1 I 98.9 I I 27.3 I I ~e. 3 1 11.8 I 3 4. 2 I 104."3 I I 28.8 I I H.e I 12. 1 I 3E.O I 109.0 I I 31.3 I I 65.C I 12.6 I 39.0 I 116.6 I I 32.3 I I 67.7 I 13.0 I 41.5 I 122.3 I I 34.4 I 70.7 13.3 42.7 126.8 36.7 Financial balances: II I I I 1 I ·I IIIII I Private sector surplus 111191 7.3 1 8.6 1 6.2 1 6.21 6.21 5.5 1 4.e 1 5.6 1 5.0 1 4.1 Public sector deficit 111201 8.5 I 8.6 I 5.8 I 5.5 I 5.9 I 5.e I 4.8 I 5.1 I 4.5 I 4.0 Balance of pa yaents on 1 1 current account 14211 1 -1.3 1 1 -0.1 I 1 0.11 1 1 ().7 1 1 0.3 1 I -0.11 1 c.c 1 0.5 1 0.4 1 0.1 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 ?;l § ~ ;:;· $' ~ ,.~.... ~ .'fable 5 Balance of payaents STRATEGY 3: Restriction of imports 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1Se2 1983 1984 1985 (t aillion,197~ prices) Vol uae of exports of : fuels 1501 883 1204 2332 3309 4411J 5453 60t4 6675 7384 7171 ether qoods & services 1502 27022 29469 32170 34089 36267 3e614 111328 44701 48067 51100 total 1407 ---2-7-9-0-5---I ---3-0-6-7-3---I ---3-4-5-0-2---I ---3-7-3-9-7---I ----4-0-6-81---I ----4-4-0-6-7--I----4-7-3-9-2--I----5-1-3-7-6--I----5-5-4-5-1--I----5-8-2-7-1- I Vcluae of iaports of: I food 1503 4524 I 4491 I 4497 I 450 2 I 4507 1 4512 I 4~18 I 4523 I 4528 1 4534 fuels 1504 4279 I 3615 I 3844 I 4080 I 4309 I 1Ji52 ·I ~190 I 5719 I 6224 I 6703 basic aateria ls 1505 2683 I 2768 I 3009 I 3n4 1 3081 I 31:26 I 3HIJ I 3233 I 3260 I 3240 seai-aanufactures 1506 finished aanufactures 1507 6775 I 7147 I 7559 1 7438 I 8819 1 8323 I 9884 I 8990 I 10898 I 10752 I 12183 I 12249 I 13~10 I 1312 I 152 90 I 17021 I 14446 1 15708 I 18739 16300 services 1508 4403 I 4901 I 5114 I 5326 I 5543 I 5782 I H2e I 6274 1 652? I 6787 total 1409 ---2-9-8-1-1---I---3-0-7-7-3---I ----3-36-0-5---I ----3-5-8-5-6--I ----3-9-0-9-0--I----4-:2-6-0-5--I----4-~-6-5-1--1----4-9-4-8-5--1----5-3-2-7-0--I----5-6-3-0-2- (Index 1975=100) 'teras of trade II I I I I I I I I I 15C91 101.50 I 100.28 I 100.33 I 100.44 I 100.69 I 100.87 I 101.01 I 1C1.17 I 101.37 1 101.42 -------------------------------------------·------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (t ·illion, 1915 values) I I Balance of trade on I goods and services 1510 Ret inco·e froa abroad 1412 -1551 I 285 I -15 I -67 I 1099 1 1842 I -715 I -110 6 I 2019 I -1683 I 1995 I -2373 I BE~ I -2348 I 26SC I -2224 I 3149 I 2979 -2709 I -2893 cu~:rent balance I jll21 -----1-2-6-6---I-------8-1---I -----3-8-4---I -----7-3-6---I ------3-3-7--I ------3-7--8--I-------3-7--I------4-5-6--I------4-4-0--I-------8-6- Ret lonq-tera capital 1511 207 I 636 I 285 I 261 I 734 I 1445 I 13iC I 1027 I 1040 I 1443 Ret trade credit 1512 -538 I -982 I -1075 1 -997 I -1070 I -1066 I -1073 I -1164 I -1178 I -954 Basic balance I 1513 -----1-5-9-6---1------4-2-7---I -·-----4-0-6---I -------0---I --------0--I --------0--I------3-3-4--I------3-1-8--I------3-0-3--I------5-7-5- Ret short-tera inflow 1~14 -1488 I -359 I 194 I 1025 I 928 I 449 I f1i I 1CS9 I 1034 I 856 Balance for I 1515 -----3-0-8-4---I------7-8-7---I------2-1-2---I -----1-0-2-5--I ------9-2-9--I------IJ-4-9--I-----1-1-5-0--I-----1-4-1-7--1-----1-3-3-7--I-----1-4-3-0- official financing I IIIII I III -(-In--d-i-c-e-s-,--1-9-7-0-=-1-0-0-) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Vel u·e of world trade 15161 145 I 157 I 171 I 186 I 203 I ~~1 I ~41 I 263 I 286 I 312 lctld price of ·anufactures 15171 14'9 I 157 I 164 I 173 I 181 I 190 I ~co 1 210 I 220 I 231 lctld teras of trade fort I I I I I I I I I I I z:a w aa terials 15181 110 I 110 I 110 I 110 I 110 I 110 I 110 I 110 I 110 I 110 I oil 15191 282 I 290 I 290 I 290 I 290 I 290 I 290 I 290 I 290 I 290 I OK unit costs relative I I I I I I I I I I I I to world price of afs: I I ............... '() in sterlinq 1520 I iu foreiqn currency 15211 II 'leighted exchange rate 15221 I 148.5 I 92.3 I I 62.1 I 157.8 89.5 56.7 I I I I I I 167.3 I 89.5 I I 53.5 I I 119. 7 I 89. 5 I I 49. 8 I I 191.7 I 89.5 I I 46.7 I I 201.9 I 89.5 I I 44.3 I I 211.6 I e9.5 1 I 42.3 I 220.0 89.5 40.7 I I I I I 226.9 89.5 39.4 I 1 I I I I 232.9 I 89.5 1 I 38.4 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------· ...til iij t;· g::_:. ::gto. "'::s I:>. -~· I Economic Policy Review Notes and definitions The CEPG system of accounts differs from official statistics in three main respects. First, production sectors are classified into 'North Sea', 'public services' and 'other domestic output' as indicated in Table 2. Second, disposable income is divided between three branches of the private sector-'wages and salaries', 'welfare benefits', and 'other private income' (the last item includes all private rents and income from selfemployment as well as company profits, interest, etc.), as shown in Table 4. Third, indirect taxes and subsidies are divided into two categories-those which are specific to different kinds of final expenditure (i.e. taxes on consumption, investment imports, etc.) and those which feed into business costs generally (rates, subsidies to public corporations, import duties and North Sea royalties). This analysis forms the basis of a distinction between expenditures valued at market prices and at 'full cost'-the latter includes net taxes on inputs but excludes taxes and subsidies on final expenditure. The series presented in this Statistical Appendix also involve adjustments to express output and expenditures at constant 1975 prices, and incomes and financial flows at 1975 values in orqer to normalise for inflation. The method used for these adjustments is as follows: (a) Real domestic final expenditures (consumption, investment, public spending and exports) at the level of disaggregation available in the model,! originally measured at 1970 factor cost,2 are rebased on their 1975 market price values, whilst disaggregated series for imports, also originally at 1970 factor cost, are rebased on their 1975 factor cost values. (b) Outputs of the three production sectors shown in Table 2 are obtained by rebasing 1970 factor cost series on 1975 factor cost figures. (c) Incomes and financial flows are expressed at 1975 values by dividing current priee series by appropriate deflators, as described in the detailed notes to tables. 1. Summary table Items whose reference numbers begin with 2, 3, 4 or 5 are defined in the notes for the appropriate table. 101. Fixed investment: private fixed investment (403) plus public fixed investment (404). 102. World terms of trade for manufactures: world price of exports of manufactures (517) relative to an average of the world price of food and materials and the world price of exports of fuels, with food and raw materials and fuels weighted on the basis of the composition ofUK imports of relevant items in 1970. 103. Public sector borrowing requirement: calendar-year figure divided by the domestic expenditure deflator. 104. Domestic credit expansion: calendar-year figure on pre-December 1976 definition, divided by the domestic expenditure deflator. 'The model disaggregates expenditures by production sectors: Series shown in this Appendix have been reaggregated back to the conventional national accounts basis. "But note that the 1970 factor cost series for consumers' expenditure, public sector current purchases (excluding wages and salaries) and fixed investment in the model are measured inclusive of relative price effects vis-a-vis their aggregate total. 120 105. Money supply: M3 at end year. 106. Bank rate/MLR: annual average of figures for last Friday of each month. 107. Import restriction: ex ante percentage re- duction of total volume of imports. 108. Discretionary tax reduction: ex ante money value of reduction in tax revenues resulting from fiscal adjustments in future projections, divided by the domestic expenditure deflator. 2. Employment, output and income 201. North Sea output: sales of oil and gas less operating costs, royalty payments and import duties attributed to imports of manufactured goods to the North Sea. 202. Public service output: public expenditure on wages and salaries charged to current account. 203. Other domestic output. 204. GDP at factor cost: compromise estimate. 205. Income from employment: pre-tax wages and salaries including employees' and employers' national insurance contributions. 206. Gross trading income and public sector rents: gross trading profits of companies, 3 gross trading surpluses of public corporations and other public enterprises, and income from self-employment, all excluding stock appreciation, plus public sector rents; 207. Private sector rents. 208. Public service employment: this item and 209 below are measured in terms of male full-time equivalents, i.e. numbers of parttime and female employees are weighted by earnings relatives. The coverage of this item is the same as that of item 202. 209. Other employment: private sector employment, plus public sector employment charged to capital account and trading activities. 210-213. Employment and labour supply: total employment (210) is employees in employment, including HM forces. Unemployment (211) is UK wholly unemployed, excluding schoolleavers and adult students, annual average of monthly figures. Potential labour supply (213) is defined as the number of persons available for employment (excluding selfemployed), including an estimate of nonparticipants (212), i.e. those who are neither in employment nor registered as unemployed, but who are potentially available for work. 3. Earnings, costs and prices Series for earnings refer to the whole economy. 301. Wage settlement index: an index of the level of money basic rates fixed at settlements in each year, measured at the average settlement date of that year. 4 302. Real post-tax value of settlements: item 301 adjusted for direct taxes and changes in consumer prices. 303-305. Average earnings: average pre-tax money 3Including the residual between compromise and income estimates of GDP. 4For a full account of the conceptual basis and construction of this index, see Economic Policy Review, No.2, March 1976, Chapter 2. Statistical Appendix earnings per person (303), adjusted for direct taxes (304), and for consumer price inflation (305). Series for unit costs and output prices relate to 'other domestic output' excluding public services and North Sea production. 306. Unit labour costs: standard money earnings (adjusted for cyclical variations in overtime) divided by trend productivity. 307. Other domestic costs: rates, farm profits and private rents less subsidies to public corporations, per unit of trend output. 308. Imported inputs: value of imports inclusive of duties (but excluding imports to th~ North Sea), plus value of purchases of oil and gas from the North Sea, less value of exports of fuels, divided by the volume of such imports and purchases from the North Sea less the volume of exports of fuels. 309. Total costs: current~weighted average of unit labour costs (306), other unit do:r;nestic costs (307), and unit cost of imported inputs (308). 310. Output prices: average deflator for home sales, including imported goods but excluding public services, at full cost, i.e. inclusive of net taxes on inputs but excluding taxes on final expenditure. 311. Consumer prices: consumers' expenditure deflator, measured as a ratio ofcurrent market prices to 1970 factor cost, 1 or equivalently output prices inclusive of sales taxes on consumption. 4. Expenditure and disposable.. income 401-409. Expenditure on gross domestic product at market prices: these items correspond exactly with the Blue Book definitions (apart from the relative price effects described in n.2 above, with the exception of stockbuilding, which here includes the residual error between compromise and expenditure estimates of GDP. 410. GDP at market prices: compromise estimate. 411-413. Terms of trade effect, net income from abroad, and national income: a 1975-based market price domestic expenditure deflator is derived from the aggregate series at current prices (not shown) and at 1975 prices (406). National income (413) is the money value of national income at market prices divided by this domestic expenditure deflator. This differs from GDP at market prices (410) to the extent of movements in prices of exports and imports relative to the price of domestic expenditure-the terms of trade effect (411 )and on account of net income received from abroad, also divided by the domestic expenditure deflator (412). 414-418. Post-tax incomes: post-tax private income (417) (including capital grants but before deduction of taxes on capital) is deflated by a 1975-based private expenditure deflator. Post-tax wages and salaries (414) and welfare benefits (415) are deflated by the 'Including a small relative price effect vis-a-vis total home sales as defined in item 310. consumers' expenditure deflator (311), leaving other private income (416) to be inferred as a residual. Public sector income (trading income, net tax receipts and rents less grants and net debt interest payments) (418) is obtained by deducting private income (417) from national income (413). 419-421. Financial balances: the money value of each flow is deflated by the domestic expenditure deflator. The private surplus includes the residual error between income and expenditure estimates of GDP. The private surplus and the public sector deficit are both defined before payment ofcapital taxes by the private sector. 5. Balance o.fpayments 501-508. Trade in goods and services: exports (407) and imports (409) are shown in two and six categories respectively. Exports are measured at 1975 market prices, and imports at 1975 factor cost (i.e. exclusive of protective duties). 509. Terms of trade: ratio of deflator for total exports of goods and services to the deflator for total imports of goods and services. 510-515, Current -and capital accounts of the balance of payments: each of these items is expressed at 1975 values by dividing its money value by the domestic expenditure deflator. Net long-term capital (511) includes both official long-term capital and net private direct investment. Short-term flows (514) include the balancing item. The balance for official financing (515) comprises changes in official reserves and foreign currency borrowing by the public sector, both with signs reversed. 516. Volume of world trade: index of volume of OECD exports of goods and services. 517. World price of manufactures: UN index of world price of exports of manufactures in US dollars, converted to a weighted average of the currencies of the UK's main competitors. 518. World terms of trade for raw materials: UN index of world price of exports of food and materials converted to weighted average foreign currency, divided by world price of manufactures (517). 519. World terms of trade for oil: world price of exports of fuels in weighted average foreign currency divided by world price of manufactures (517). 520, 521. UK unit costs relative to world price of manufactures: UK output prices in sterling (310), adjusted for sales taxes on exports, divided by world price of exports of manufactures in foreign currency (517) to obtain relativity in own currencies (520), and further multiplied by sterling exchange rate (522) to obtain relativity in foreign currencies (521). 522. Weighted exchange rate: effective exchange rate, in weighted average foreign currency per unit sterling (based on official index in Economic Trends). 121  Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Statistical Appendix Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Economic Policy Review Volume 3, pages 99 - 121 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource March 1977