https://cpes.org.uk/om/files/original/65426fbcbf1049e1ec39713194ff7e1f.pdf de90238e15d6df47328dd1a147516c1a Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Prospects for Economic Management 1972 - 76 Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Text Any textual data included in the document PROSPECTS FOR ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT 1972-76 STATISTICAL APPENDIX Cambridge Economic Policy Group Statistical appendix Expenditure, output 1 employment and balance of payments estimates for 1960-76 Contents Tables: i. GDP, employment and unemployment 2. Public expenditure 3. Gross fixed capital formation 4. Actual balance of payments 5. Par balance of payments 6. Balance of trade, actual 1960-72 7. Balance of trade, trend 1970-76 8. Balance of trade, par 1960-76 9. Balance of trade, projections - fast growth assumption 10. Balance of trade, projections - slow growth assumption 11. Expenditure on GDP, actual 1960-72 12. Expenditure on GDP, par 1960-76 13. Expenditure on GDP, projections - fast growth assumption 14. Expenditure on GDP, projections - slow growth assumption 15. The Consumption gap Sources and definitions Table 1 GDP, Employment and Unemployment Year 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 y 24957 25614 25909 26913 28433 29256 29780 30305 31447 32055 32725 33056 33962 Gttowth mtиes Z96Z-o 3.4 Z96S-9 2. 3 Z969-'l2 7,. 9 Fast Growth 1973 36001 1974 37801 1975 39146 1976 40597 Gl10tJJth mte Z.9'l2-6 4и. 6 Slow Growth 1973 35738 1974 36453 1975 37182 1976 37926 G'l'OIJ)th z-ate 7,9?2-6 2. 8 u U' 363 318 291 330 353 474 546 446 386 334 303 285 274 403 480 517 539 530 525 544 556. 605 634 782 870 812 иии и ии иии и ии иии и ии 777 436 383 415 . 564 403 403 403 иии иии 777 625 534 708 812 832 844 966 ии и иии E E' 24122 24366 24512 24561 24591 . 24487 24424 24643 24774 24957 25067 25166 25225 24966 24810 24709 24649 24635 24.627 24575 24543 24256 24083 24070 24062 24004 Y* 23716 24501 25313 26151 27017 27912 28820 29758 30725 31725 32700 33705 34741 P* 0.995 1.023 1.051 1.081 1.111 1.142 1.180 1. 218 1. 258 1.300 1. 340 1. 381 1. 424 E* 23835 23950 24080 24200 24322 24443 24434 24424 24414 24404 24403 24403 24402 0.6 0.6 3.3 2. 8 o.s -0.4 -o. e 3. 3 3.3 o.o -0.8 -0.8 3. 7, 3. 7, o.o 23970 24804 24842 25018 24491 24828 24952 25114 35739 36820 38130 39543 1. 467 1. 512 1.558 1. 605 24362 24357 24477 24634 7,, 0 t. 7, 3.3 3,0 o.a 23970 24595 239~1 24097 24361 24180 24035 23899 35739 36820 38130 39543 1.467 1. 512 1.558 1. 605 24362 24357 24477 24634 o.o -o. z 3. 3 3.0 0.2 Table 2 Public Expenditure Year 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 CG 4760 4933 5089 5170 5249 5396 5551 5860 5882 5806 5878 6082 6249 Gr-owth rates l-967--S 2.3 7-965-9 Zo 8 7-969-72 2. s 1973 1974 1975 1976 6515 6653 6829 7000 Gr>OtVth rate Z972-6 2. 9 IDG 301 315 357 380 499 526 594 665 707 636 597 540 546 l-3 0 7 4.9 -s.o 561 551 540 537 -o.4 IKG 1505 1644 1672 1754 1980 2061 2197 2496 2489 2297 2374 2517 2598 5. 8 2.? 4. 2 2792 2927 2971 3020 3.8 IG 1806 1959 2029 2134 2479 2587 2791 3161 3196 2933 2971 3057 3144 G 6566 6892 7118 7304 7728 7983 8342 9021 9078 8739 8849 9139 9393 ?c 2 3.? 3. 2 2.3 2o J 2. 4 3353 3477 3511 3557 9868 10130 10340 10557 3. l 3.0 Table 3 ~ross fixed Capital Formation Year IG 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1806 1959 2029 2134 2479 2587 2791 3161 3196 2933 2971 3057 3144 GPOWth Pates l-961--65 ?.2 Z965-69 3.2 l-969-?2 2.3 Fast Growth 1973 3353 1974 3477 1975 3511 1976 3557 GPOWth Pate' l9?2-?6 3 l Slow Growth 1973 3353 1974 3477 1975 3511 1976 3557 Gztowth rote l9?2-?6 3.7, IDP 533 541 531 533 636 636 585 610 637 352 520 594 710 4.L -3.5 8.8 690 74,4 767 791 2.? 679 684 680 672 -?..4 IKP 2079 2415 2332 2327 2699 2813 2810 2838 3112 3371 3589 3387 3522 3.9 4.6 1..5 3773 4279 4610 4847 8.3 3773 4211 4285 4469 6.l I 4418 4915 4892 4994 5814 6036 6186 6609 6945 6856 7080 7038 7376 5.3 3.2 2.5 7816 8501 8889 9194 5.? 7804 8372 8476 8698 4.2 y 24957 25614 25909 26913 28433 29256 29780 30305 31447 32055 32725 33056 33962 IDP* 484 521 523 485 547 574 546 578 609 571 542 635 770 3.4 2.S 2.3 -o.z 1..9 1-0.5 36001 37801 39146 40597 679 700 722 744 4.6 -o.9 35738 36453 37182 37926 679 700 722 744 2.8 -o.9 IKP* 1950 2055 2166 2283 2560 2520 2601 2722 3065 3237 3575 3413 3694и I* 4239 4535 4718 4902 5586 5681 5938 6460 6870 6742 7088 7105 7607 5.2 5.8 8.5 4.4 4.5 4.l 3912 4133 4381 4679 7943 8311 8614 8980 6.7, 4.2 3912 4133 4381 4679 7943 8311 8614 8980 6.7, 4.2 Y* 23716 24501 25313 26151 27017 27912 28820 29758 30725 31725 32700 33705 34741 3.3 3.3 3.1- 35739 36820 38130 39543 3.3 35739 36820 38130 39543 3.3 Table 4 Actual balance of payments (t million at current prices) Longиterm Trade Net Ditto, Year BT PIA GT PT B Investment Credit BB D Liquidity Cumul- Overseas (net) Effect ative (net) 1960 -407 233 -94 13 -25.5 1961 -147 254 -118 17 6 1962 -101 334 -121 10 122 1963 -137 398 ...1J2 -5 124 1964 -602 393 -163 -10 -382 1965 -300 435 -177 -7 -49 1966 -101 387 -180 -22 84 1967 -462 379 -188 -44 -315 1968 -372 335 -179 -:55 -271 1969 173 497 -177 -49 444 1970 393 494 -172 -34 681 1971 784 470 -200 -14 1042 1972 -238 515 -212 -25 40 и-----:;----:--.и"'7""~~ ~ ии...........- и.., и...;,.~--.,.,. ....... -- -197 -20 62 -42 106 -22 -150 -89 -342 -46 -182 -46 -70 -204 -46 -185 27 -253 -33 -161 -39 -204 359 -261 -245 -210 .- - -и- ии- --. - ------и -472 ;26 206 -115 -770 -277 -190 -546 -497 250 438 1140 -415 - .Б0 - - 356 169 -196 85 488 -293 125 -472 26 206 -95 -770 -277 166 -377 -693 335 926 847 -290 -472 -446 -240 -335 -и1105 -1382 -1216 -1593 -2286 -1951 -1025 -178 -468 Year 1960 1961 196~ 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Table 5 Par balance of payments -----и- -иии-- -и -- . ____.,. ..,,.,_, "'и и-и--и и'. . . и..-----. ....--4и----и--_,_..__....__~-....-._,. (Б million at 1963 import prices) .-..--.........~ ~ BT и PIA+GT+PT EEC B Long-term Trade BB D Net Investment Credit LiquiditY, Overseas (net) Effect ___ .,.,._..,._..~-..------. - --. ии-- ии-- (net) -'.-.-4и~.и~ и - - ___, _ -75 210 - 135 -118 -6 11 4 15 -75 208 - 133 -126 -12 -5 4 -1 -75 203 - 128 -118 -51 -41 4 -37 -75 19~ - 123 -105 -26 -12 4 -8 -75 188 - 113 -116 -84 -87 124 37 -75 173 - 98 -120 -46 -68 124 56 -75 170 - 95 -104 -lOO -109 124 15 -75 172 - 97 -58 -86 -47 124 77 -so 175 - 125 -58 -145 -78 30 -48 0 185 - 185 -3 -75 107 30 137 50 202 - 252 -5 -164 88 30 118 100 211 - 311 -24 -170 117 30 147 150 215 - 365 -91 -221 53 30 83 250 218 -45 423 -171 -209 43 - 43 -300 230 -65 465 -246 -231 -12 -12 350 245 -95 500 -280 -249 -29 - -29 400 263 -130 533 -314 -255 -36 - -36 Ditto Cumulative 15 14 -23 -31 6 62 77 154 106 243 361 508 591 634 622 593 557 Table 6 Balance of Trade, Actual 1960-72 Year X M TT. BT wx uc 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 5327 5487 5578 5809 6044 6343 663t 6655 7469 8170 8621 9046 9127 Growth 'Pates Z98Z-85 3. ?и Z985-89 8.5 Z989.;.?2 J.B c 5669 5628 5736 5946 6520 6577 6753 7182 7706 7935 8358 8744 9595 4.0 4.8 8.5 0.и 986 0.998 1.010 1.000 0.982 0.992 1.004 1.014 0.990 0.989 1.005 1.031 1.023 -415 -150 -103 -137 -584 -288 - 96 -431 -313 142 303 581 -260 -o.2 -o.z z.z 0.850 0.870 0.943 1.013 1.138 1.243 1.350 1.433 1.655 1.868 2.028 2.173 2.282 1.018 1.011 1.017 1.000 0.993 1.002 1.002 0.987 0.860 0.854 0.851 0.891 0.890 9.3 -o.2 ZO.? -3.9 6.9 Z.4 и ,, и Table 7 Balance of Trade, Trend l960-i'6 Year 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1\ X 5053 5393 5550 5870 6062 6434 6836 7029 7488 7877 8258 8847 9253 9644 10137 10656 11202 A M 5195 5299 5631 5780 6069 6252 6617 7001 7446 7725 8263 8941 9906 10536 11318 12158 13033 A tT BT L004 -123 L003 llO 0.999 -86 1.003 108 0,993 -47 0.989 110 0.994 175 0.986 -74 1.014 145 LOOl 159 L020 163 1.020 88 1.011 -549 1.010 -794 1. 010 -1083 L009 -1406 1.008 -1738 w1\x o. 801 0.876 0.958 1.048 1.146 L 253 1.370 1. 499 1, 639 1, 792 1,960 2,144 2,345 2.564 2. 804 3.067 3,354 uc 1.046 1.029 1.012 0.996 0.980 0.965 0,949 0,934 0, 919 o. 905 0,890 0.876 0.862 0.848 o. 835 0.821 o. 808 Growth rates l96l-5 4, 5 l965-9 5. 2 l969-72 5. 5 l9?2-6 4,9 4. 2 5. 4 8.6 ?. l -o.4 0.3 0.3 -O.l 9. 4 -l. 6 9. 4 -l. 6 9. 4 -l. 6 9. 4 -l. 6 Table 8 Balance of Trade Par 1960-76 Year X* M* TT* BT* wx* uc * 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 5094 5150 5521 5611 5981 6195 6558 7111 7351 7742 8169 8947 10254 11126 12142 13281 14487 Growth rates Z96Z-65 4.? Z965-69 5.? Z969-?2 9.8 Z9?2-?6 9.0 5191 5277 5604 5741 6032 6225 6614 7069 7518 7756 8267 8973 10030 10721 11603 12604 13664 4.2 5.? 8.9 8.0 1.004 1.010 1.002 1.010 0.996 0.993 0.997 0.984 1.016 1.002 1.018 1.014 0. 993 0.986 0.980 0.975 0.971 -75 -75 -75 -75 -75 -75 -75 -75 -so 0 50 lOO 150 250 300 350 400 -0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.6 0.801 0.876 0.958 1.048 1.146 1.253 1.370 1.499 1.639 1.792 1.960 2.144 2.345 2.564 2.804 3.067 3.354 1.050 1.104 1.037 1.064 1.006 1.002 0.984 0.915 0.939 0.912 0.871 0.823 0. 716 0.666 0.622 0.585 0.554 9.4 -2.4 9.4 -2.3 9.4 -?.? 9.4 -6.2 Table 9 Balance of Trade Projection 1972-76 - Fast growth assumption Fixed rate ~ 2.35 Year 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Growth rиate ?2-?6 Continued Depreciation 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Growth rate ?2-?6 Fixed rate from 1973 g 2.00 1976 Growth rate ?2-?6 Fixed rate from 1973 g 1.80 1976 Growth rate ?2-?6 X 9127 9524 10250 10704 11147 5. z 9127 9524 10375 11097 11921 6.9 12520 M 9595 10585 11616 12419 13298 8.5 9595 10585 11641 12497 13452 8.8 13572 TT 1.023 1.016 0.999 1.000 1.001 BT -260 -908 -1379 -1718 -2144 wx 2.282 2.510 2.887 3.157 3.453 uc 0.890 0.844 0.844 0.844 0.844 -0.5 W.9 -Z.3 1.023 1.016 0.994 0.990 0.986 -260 -908 -1329 -1511 -1698 2.282 2.510 2.887 3.157 3.453 0.890 0.844 0.804 0.766 0.729 -0.9 Z0.9 -4.9 0.985 -1245 3. 453 o. 719 8.2 13508 9.Z 13770 -0.9 0.974 -609 W.9 -5.2 3.453 0.647 Z0.3 9.5 .-z. 2 Z0.9 -?.7 Fixed rate from 1973 g 1.60 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 9127 10485 12374 13658 14705 9595 10777 12041 13010 14009 1.023 0.978 0.961 0.962 0.963 -260 -526 -148 130 149 2.282 2.510 2.887 3.157 3.453 0.890 0.575 0.575 0.575 0.575 Growth rate ?2-?6 Z2.? 9.9 -z. 5 Z0.9 -Z0.3 ;и Table 10 Balance of Trade : Project1ons 1972-76 - S.i.ow growth assumption Fixed rate g 2.35 GrOUJth rate Continued Depreciation Growth rate Fixed rate from 1973 ~ 2.00 Gro!JJth rate Fixed rate from 1973 g 1.80 Growth rote Fixed rate from 1973 ~ 1.60 Growth rate Year 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 72-?6 X 9127 9524 10250 10704 11147 5. l 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 9127 9524 10375 11097 11921 ?4-76 6. 9 1976 12520 ?2-76 8.2 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 9127 10181 11680 12675 13508 ?2-?6 Z0.3 ~976 14705 72-76 Z2. 7 M 9595 10495 11165 11796 12500 6.8 9595 10495 l1.L90 1J.875 12655 l. 2 12775 ?и 4 9595 10627 11451 12190 12972 ?.8 13212 8.3 TT i.023 1.016 0.999 1 000 1.001 -0.5 1.023 l.Ol6 0.99"+ o. 990 0.986 -0.9 0.985 -0.9 1.023 0.989 0.972 0.973 0.974 -z. 2 0.963 -Z.5 BT -260 -818 -928 -1096 -1346 wx 2.282 2.510 2.887 3.157 3.453 W.9 -260 -818 -878 -889 -901 -447 2.282 2.510 2.887 3.157 3.453 W.9 3.453 W.9 -260 -555 -93 148 188 2.282 2.510 2.887 3.157 3.453 Z0.9 947 3.453 Z0.9 uc 0.890 0.844 0.844 0.844 0.844 -l. :3 0.890 0.844 0.804 0.766 0.729 -4.9 0. 719 -5.2 0.890 0.647 0.647 0.647 0.647 -?.? 0.575 -W.3 Table 11 Expenditure on G.D.P., Actual 1960-72 Year c CG 1960 1961 1962 и1963 1964 . 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 18445 18876 19280 20130 20830 21197 21628 22118 22687 22800 23413 24032 25500 4760 4933 5089 5170 5249 5396 5551 5860 5882 5806 5878 6082 6249 Growth rates Z96Z-65 l965-69 2.9 z. 8 l969-72 3.8 2.3 z. 8 2.5 I 4418 4915 4892 4994 5814 6036 6186 6609 6945 6856 7080 7038 7376 s 641 352 75 223 677 436 301 228 289 441 433 155 lOO 5. 3 3.2 2.5 X 5327 5487 5578 5809 6044 6343 6631 6655 7469 8170 8621 9046 9127 M 5669 5628 5736 5946 6520 6577 6753 7182 7706 7935 8358 8744 9595 3.? 4.0 6.5 4. 8 3.8 6.5 A 3272 3326 3329 3467 3712 3713 3817 3956 4155 4199 4406 4582 5031 R 307 5 60 0 51 138 53 -27 36 116 64 29 236 2.8 3. z 6.2 y 24957 25614 25909 26913 28433 29256 29780 30305 31447 32055 32725 33056 3396~ 3. 4 2.3 z. 9 Table 12 Expenditure on G.D.P., Par 1960-76 Year C* CG I* S* X* 1960 17544 4760 4239 305 5094 1961 119'71 4933 4535 314 5150 1962 18495 5089 4718 323 552;1. 1963 19233 5170 4902 332 5611 1964 19318 5249 5586 342 5981 1965 20075 5396 5681 351 6195 1966 20732 5551 5938 361 6558 1967 20820 5860 6460 372 7111 1968 21756 5882 6870 382 7351 1969 23040 5806 6742 393 7742 1970 23900 5878 7088 404 8169 1971 24871 6082 7105 416 8947 1972 25202 6249 7607 428 10254 1973 25618 6515 7943 440 11126 1974 26:326 6653 8311 452 12142 1975 27356 6829 8614 465 13281 1976 28495 7000 8980 478 14487 M* 5191 5277 5604 5741 6032 6225 6614 7069 7518 7756 8267 8973 10030 10721 11603 12604 13664 A* 3036 3124 3229 3355 3426 3562 3706 3797 3998 4243 4471 4743 4969 5182 5462 5811 6233 Y* 23716 24501 25313 26151 27017 27912 28820 29758 30725 31725 32700 33705 34741 35739 36820 38130 39543 Growth rates Z96Z-65 2.8 1-965-69 3.5 1-969-72 3. 0 l-9?2-76 3. t 2.3 t. 8 2.5 2.9 5.8 4. 4 4. z 4.2 4.? 4.2 3.3 3.3 5.? 5. 7 4.5 3.3 z9.8 8.9 5. 4 3. 9.0 8.0 5.8 3. 3 Table 13 Fixed rate g 2.35 Expenditure on G.D.P. Year c CG Projections 1972-76 - Fast growth assumption .. ' ... I s XMAR y 1972 25500 6249 7376 100 9127 9595 5031 236 33962 1973 27325 6515 7816 705 9524 10585 5417 117 36001 1974 28909 6653 8501 844 10250 11616 5863 123 37801 1975 30763 6829 8889 607 10704 12419 6355 128 39146 1976 32876 7000 9194 493 11147 13298 6949 132 40597 Growth Rates ?2-?6 6.6 2.9 5. 7 5. l 8.5 8. 4 4.6 Continu.~d 1972 Depreciativn 1973 2.5500 27325 6:L49 6515 7376 7816 lOO 705 9127 9595 5031 236 33962 9524 10585 5417 117 36001 1974 28792 6653 8501 844 10375 11641 5847 123 37801 1975 30:)94 6829 8889 607 11097 12497 6301 128 39146 1976 32i46 7000 9194 493 11921 13452 6837 132 40597 Growth Rat:es 72-76 6 . 0 2.9 5.? 6.9 8.8 8.0 4.6 Fixed rate 1972 25j00 6249 7376 100 9127 9595 5031 236 33962 from 1973 g 1. 60 1973 26433 6515 7816 705 10485 10777 5294 117 36001 1974 26927 6653 8501 844 12374 12041 5581 123 37801 1975 27993 6829 8889 607 13658 13010 5948 128 39146 1976 295"1.6 7000 9194 493 14705 14009 6435 132 40597 Gro-IJ)th rates 72-?6 .5. ? 2.9 5.? l2.? 9.9 6. 3 4.6 Table 14 Expenditure on G.D.P. Projections 1972-76 - Slow growth assumption Fixed rate ~ 2.35 Year 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 c 25500 27004 27312 28556 29599 CG 6249 6515 66.53 6829 7000 I 7376 7804 8372 8476 8698 Growth rates 72-76 3. 8 2.9 4. 2 s X .M lOO 9127 9595 632 9524 10495 496 10250 11165 237 10704 11796 187 11147 12500 5. z 6.8 .A 5031 5362 5584 5946 6329 R 236 117 119 121 124 5.9 y 33962 35738 36453 37182 37926 2.8 Continued 1972 Depreciation 1973 1974 19i5 1976 2jSOl.и 270fj4 27194 28i87 28869 6249 6515 6653 6829 7000 7376 7804 8372 8476 8698 100 9127 9595 632 9524 10495 496 :10375 11190 237 11097 1.1875 187 11921 12655 5031 236 33962 5362 117 35738 5567 119 36453 5892 121 37182 6218 124 37926 Growth rates 72-?6 3.2 2,9 4.2 6.9 ?.2 5. 4 2.8 Fixed rate from 1973 $ 1.80 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 25500 26395 259;'7 26708 27370 6249 6515 6653 6829 7000 7376 7804 8372 8476 8698 z.Growth rates ?2-76 8 2.9 4.2 lOCi 9127 9595 632 10181 10627 496 11680 11451 237 12675 12190 187 13508 12972 Z0.3 7. 8 5031 5278 5394 5674 5988 236 117 119 121 124 4.4 33962 35738 36453 37182 37926 2.8 Table 15 The Consumption Gap, 1972 - 76 Year Required Generated consumption consumption Par Fast ~rowth Fixed rate S 2.35 Continued depreciation sFixed rate from 1973 1.60 1972 1973 1974 1975 197& 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 25202 25618 26326 27356 25495 25500 27325 28909 30763 32876 25500 27325 28792 30394 32146 25500 26433 26927 27993 29516 Slow arowth sFixed rate 2.35 Continued depreciation Fi4ed rat.e from 1973 5 1.80 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1972 1973 1974. 197!i 1976 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 25500 27004 27312 28556 29599 25500 27004 27194 28187 28869 25500 26395 25977 26708 27370 25942 26687 27494 2841.2 29528 25500 26834 28u4:L 29040 30J..l.6 25500 26834 28042 29040 30116 25500 268_jq 28042 29040 30116 25500 26687 27287 27934 28605 25500 26687 27287 2793~ 28605 25500 26687 27287 27934 28605 rnib.al gap -740 -1069 -1168 -ill6 -1033 Terms of Trade -576 и748 -915 -1072 -1230 Rent and Food 0 -138 -300 -337 и375 0 491 867 1.723 2760 0 491 750 1354 2.030 0 -115 -207 -173 -136 0 -115 -343 -453 -572 0 -138 -300 -337 -375 0 -138 -300 -337 .. -375 0 -401 -HIS -1047 -600 0 -1124 -1257 -1261 -1267 0 -138 -300 -337 -375 0 317 25 622 994 0 317 и-93 253 264 0 -292 -1310 -и1226 -12.35 0 -115 -202 -166 -129 0 -115 -333 -436 -544 0 -814 -914 -897 -878 0 -138 -300 -337 -375 0 -138 -300 -337 -375 0 -138 -300 -337 -375 Final gap -164 -183 47 : 293 572 0 744 1374 2233 3271 0 744 1393 2144 2977 0 861 442 551 1042 0 570 527 1125 1498 0 570 540 1026 1183 0 660 -96 8 18 Sources and definitions All series in f .nillion, 1963 prices unless otherwise indicated Table 1 GDP, employment and unemployment y Gross domestic product at factor cost Average of expenditure, income and output ~ndices linked to expenditure estimate for 1963; expenditure estimates incorporate revised stockbuildiag series (see Chapter V). U Wholly unemployed, Great Britain, excluding school leavers~ seasonally adjusted average for first quarter (thousands) U' Unemployment adjusted for lagged response to output U' t = ,625 ut+ 1 + .375 u t E Employees in employment, plus self-employed and armed forces, Great Britain, March figure (thousands} E' Employment adjusted for lagged response to output. Et' = o625 Et+ l + <375 Et Y* Par GDP at factor cost Estimated for 1961, 1965, 1969 and 1971 by the formula Y* = Y I [ 1 + B (0,025 - uи '25000)] y Values are interpolated for intermediate years and extrapolated for 1960 and 1972. By Elasticity of output with respect to adjusted unemployment, declining from 4 in 1960 to 3 for 1972-76o P* Par output per head (f thousand, 1963 prices}. Estimated for 1961, 1965c 1969 and 1971 by the formula I. JP* = y I E I + Bp ( 625 - u') Values are interpolated or extrapolated for other years. Bp Elasticity of productivity with respect to adjusted unemployment, declining from 1.8 in 1960 to 0.8 for 1972-76. E* Par employment (thousands) E* = Y*/P* Projections for 1973-76 E* is extrapolated by allowing for demographic changes, trends in participation rates and the effects of higher educational enroLment and P* is proj:ected to grow at 3% per year. Given asstnned values for Y, levels of U' and E' (and hence also U and E) are solved from the formulae given above .. Table 2 Public expenditure CG Public authorities' current expenditure on goods and services. IDG Public authorities' fixed capital formation in dwellings !KG Other fixed capital formation by public authorities (excluding steel industry) IG Total public authorities' fixed capital formation IG = IDG + IKG G Total public sector expenditure on goods and services. G = CG + IG Projections for 1973-76 Estimates in the White Paper on Public Expenditure are adjusted to calendar years and to a 1963 prices basis. Table 3 IDP IKP I IDP* IKP* I* Gross Fixed Capital Formation Private gross fixed capital formation in dwellings Other private gross fixed capital formation (including public sector steel industry) Total gross fixed capita~- formation I = IDP + IKP + IG Par private groEs fixed capital formation in dwellings IDP* = IDP ~ 0,0446 (Y* - Y) + adjustment for variations in mortgage interest rate Par other private gross fixed capital formation IKPi~ = IKP + 0,2607 (Y* - Y)_1 - 0-0997 (Y*- Y)_ 2 Par total gross fixed capital formation I* = IG + IDP* + IKP* Projections for 1973-76 IDP* is extrapolated assuming very small trend growth after 1972. IKP* is calculated by the formula IKP* = -2210 + 0,2607 Y*-l - 0_0997 Y*_2 + 15 (t-1948) + adjustment for extra steel and oil investmen~. Values for IDP and IKP are solved from the formulae given above. Table 4 Actual balance of payments BT Balance of trade on goods and services PIA Property income from abroad, net. Interest, profits and div~dends earned overseas, net of overseas tax, minus payments overseas, net of U.K. tax. GT Government transfers abroad, net. Excludes payments to E.E.C. PT Private transfers abroad, net. B Current balance: ~~Б paytnent.s. Long-term investmeat ov en;eas, net Infl.oиws of direct, portf,J1io, ~иo~l '"nd .n1scellaneous'', and off ie1.al long-term investment from overseas, minus outflows. Foreign currency bor.row~ng by U.K. banks to f~nance investment overseas is counted as long-term tnward Lnvestment. Trade'credit, net Import credit rece~ved from unrelated f~rms, m1nus export credit granted. Values for 1960-62 a.re estimated on the basis cf changes in imports and exports, assuming constant credit/trade ratios. BB Basic balance of payments B + long-term investment overseas, net + trade credit, net D Allocations of I.M.F. drawing rights, special and ordinary (net of gold contributions to the I.M.F.), E.E.A. profits/losses and revaluations affect1ng the reserves a~d short-term assets and liabilities, so far as these ate 1dentified in the official Balanc!'! of Payments accounts. (Se~ U.K. Balance of Payments, 1972, Table 41, and earlier editions.) Net liquidity effect Changes in the balance of official reser~.res (including special I.M.F. drawing rights and unused lines of credit at the I.M.F.) minus net short-term external l1abiliL~es in official and private hands. Identically equal to BB+ D. A minus sign indicates a deterioration 1n the balance. All values are at current prices. Table 5 Par balance of payments BT The par economy's required balance of trade on goods and services. In principle, the target is set so as to make par BB zero, given other balance of payments flows. The smoothed target shown here broadly meets this condition for 1960-76 as a whole, while confining the require~ annual improvement in trade to well within Б100 million in most years. The target is no more than a broad order of magnitude, and its precise annual values are not important. EEC The U.K.'s net contribution on current account to the E.E.C. budget. Estimates in the White Paper on Public Expenditure were expressed at 1963 import prices (see below). Other headings correspond to those in Table 4. However, all past flows have here been smoothed to estimate the1r trend or average movements and are expressed at 1963 import values. The latter are defined as current values deflated by the price defdator for U.K. imports of goods and services, 1963 = lOO. Projections for 1973-76 PIA Values of the principal components of interest, profits and dividends were projected separately on the basis of logarithmic trends in their real values. Adjustments were made for additional interest and profits payable on inward investment in North Sea oil and gas, and for lower growth of interest payments on short-term debt accumulated by the par economy. It was assumed that the par economy would have some Б1,500 of net short-term liabilities (at 1963 values) less than the actual economy by 1976, and that interest would be saved in that year equivalent to about 5 per cent of this amount. A low rate of interest was selected because it was assumed that some of the projected difference in the liquidity position would reflect higher reserves or official short-term lending at low rates of interest by the par economy. GT Projected on the basis of estimates in the latest Public Expenditure White Paper. I Long-term investment overseas Direct investment was projected on the basis of logarithmic trends in real flows. Separate projections were made for investment in E.E.C. and non E.E.C. areas and adjustments were made to reflect relaxation of restrictions to the E.E.C. after 1974. Outward oil and miscellaneous investment was projected on the basis of the trend in accumulated net assets for this item. (Th~ down trend in annual investment in oil etc. since the early 1960's is not expected to continue.) Inward oil and miscellaneous investment was made to fall from a t~end level of Б240 million in 1972 to some Б190 million in 1976, reflecting a fall-off in investment in the North Sea by foreign companies. Offic~al long-term investment was projected mainly on the basis of eetimates in the Public Expanditure White Paper, convert2d to 1963 import values. This item includes U.K. capital subscriptions to the European Investment Bank and the E,C,S.C. Trade Credit Movements in pa-r import and export cred 1 r (0-TM and fiTX) were projected as follow~: 6TM : ,08 (fiM) t~Tx .25 (tlX) where M and X are par imports -and exports respectively, adjusted to current values. (Par imports and exports at 1963 prices are given in Table 8.) Net trade credit is then bTM - fiTX, expressed at 1963 import prices. Tables 6-10 Actual Series: X M TT BT wx uc Balance of trade Ex?orts of gooda and serv1ces Imports of goods and services Terms of trade (index, 1963=100) Ratio of price deflator for exports of goods and services to nrice deflator for imports of goods and services Balance of trade on goods and services at 1963 import values BT = X.TT - M Volume of r..rorld trade Summary index of manufactured ex~orts for 11 industrial countries, average of ~uarterly values; source: linked series from U.N. Monthly Bulletin. P.elative costs Index of U.K. GDP deflator relative to a weighted average of the GDP deflators of 6 other major countries with geometric weights equal to 1963 shares of trade in manufactures, corrected for exchange rate changes (multiplied by RX). Relative exchange rate Index of U.K. dollar exchange rate relative to a weighted average of the dollar exchange rates of 6 other major countries with geometric weights equal to 1963 shares of trade in manufactures. Trend series (see chapter IV): log trend values fitted to actual data, 1960-72 ( ~X ~x)o.s (u~)-o.2s ~ U~C-j)-0.4(0.6)] X WX UC . TI J=-1 uc . -J M = M ~ 0.27 (Y* - Y) + 0.25 (S* - S) + 0.20 (X - X) - adjustments for effects of import surcharge 1964-67 and 1mports of US ancraft TT TT (tiC)o.s (uc-1\-o.4 (ix\o.4 (Rx.-~-o.4 (mc)-o.36 UC \UC -l) RX) RX-l j HX I x adJustment for unexplained variat1on in import pr1ce deflator BT X.TT -M Par ser1es (see chapter IV): . WX* trend value ( =WX) UC* values are estimated to yield approximately the target balance of trade, BT*, after tak1ng account of the effects on exports and the terms of trade assuming the same elasticities as for X. M* M""' 0.20 (X* - X) + imports of L'S aircraft X* (BT* + M*) /TT* BT* target balance of trade (see chapter III) Projections for 1973-76 Values of X and TT are extrapolated from the trend 1960-72. ~ is projected on the basis of a disaggregated study of the trend growth of imports and incorporated an allowance for savings due to North Sea oil and gas, and higher domestic output of coal and food. All other items are solved using the formulae given above to adjust the trend projections. Tables 11-14 Expenditure on G.D"P' C Consumers' Expenditure S Physical increase in stocks and work-in-progress, revised (see chapter V) . A Adjustment to factor cost R Residual error (compromise less expenditure estimate) C* Par consume~1 expenditure, obtained as a residual S* Par physical increase in stocks and work~in~progress S* = S + Oo276 (Y* - Y) - Oe092 (Y* - Y)_1 -0.186 (Y* - Y)_2 A* Par adjustment to factor cost Adjustment to factor cost is decomposed int-o net indirect taxes falling on private consume~1expenditure, public current expenditure, gross fixed capital formation and exports. The par adju~tments for all but private consumer~ expenditure are obtained by applying the ratio of the factor cost adjustment at 1963 rates to expenditure at 1963 prices to the par series. The ratio used for par private consumer~ expenditure is obtained by fitting a curve to estimates of past ratios derived as residuals. Projections 1973-76 Consumer~ expenditure is estimated as a residual. given projections of other categories of expenditure and extrapolating the par estimate of its net indtrect tkx content. In the case of alternative projections starting from the actual position in 1972 a small residual error has been retained to improve comparability of past and future figures. Table 15 The Consumption Gap Required Consumption Consumeratexpenditure aa a reaidual in the expenditure accounts. (defined as C). Generated Consumption Private consumption generated by the f.lov of incomes, aasuming the current real burden of taxation and the tenns of trade expected for 1972. Initial Gap Difference between required and generated consumption Te~s of trade effect The effects on consumption of changes in import prices relative to home coats Rent and food Effects of higher food prices due to movement to the Common Agricultural rolicr and of higher rents to be changed for local authority housing. Final Gap tnitial Gap leas tenna of trade effect and rent and food.  Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Statistical Appendix Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource CEPG Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Prospects for Economic Management 1972 - 76, Statistical Appendix pages Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 1973