https://cpes.org.uk/om/files/original/fa00b7981b7b11ddbe22b1676116fe5d.pdf e92083c2182921da00453226ff41952c Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Prospects for Economic Management 1972 - 76 Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Text Any textual data included in the document Chapter II G.D.P., employment and unemployment The large increase in unemployment from 270,000 in 1966 to 870,000 in 1972 reflected reductions in employment both in manufacturing and in service industries. The decline in employment was larger, in relation to output, than in earlier recessions. Until recently it was hard to know whether there had been an acceleration of the underlying trenp of productivity growth, a one-for-all shake-out (or step up in productivity), or simply a reversible adjustment of employment for cyclical reasons of greater severity than in the past. 2. In 1972 the decline in employment has been halted and probably reversed while unemployment has begun to fall quite steadily in the second half of the year. From the data available so far it appears that employment in the private sector outside manufacturing has started to increase quite rapidly after constant decline since 1966; it also appears that there has been a substantial increase in the number of females seeking and finding employment. 3. On the evidence of expenditure and output estimates, the rate of growth of G.D.P. has only really started to pick up in the second half of the year. The increase in G.D.P. for 1972 as a whole on 1971 has probably been about 3%, and therefore less than the par rate of growth. The fact that unemployment has started to fall quite rapidly and steadily suggests that there was no real acceleration of productivity growth or once-and-for-all shake-out in the past two years; rather the adjustment of employment to the recession in demand was more severe than in the past. Par output and productivity 4. The method used to estimate par levels of GDP and productivity is the same as that described in the earlier study, except that the parameters of the adjustment process have had to be changed in order to make sense of the recent movement of unemployment. We now assume much shorter lags in the adjustment of employment and unemployment to fluctuations in output; and the adjustment is supposed to have become steadily more elastic betwe~n 1960 and 1972. II-2 5. Once the assumption is made that employment has been adjusted more rapidly and completely to fluctuations in demand, the recent movements of output, employment and tmemployment fall into a consistent pattern. Appendix Table 1 shows that par G.D.P. hai grown at about 3.2% per year throughout the period 1960-72. During the early 1960's the 'bulge' in the labour force contributed 0.4% per year and par productivity was rising by 2.8% per year. As the bulge came to an end productivity' growth increased to about 3.3% per year, 1965-9. Since then productivity growth se~ms to have fallen off slightly to about 3% per year. 6. For the next four years, 1973-76, we assume continued par productivity growth at 3% per year. This assumption may need revision when firm evidence on the sectoral distribution of increases in employment becomes available; there are some indications of a rapid increase in service employment in 1972 which would suggest a further reduction in the par growth of average productivity in the economy as a whole. 7. From 1972 at least up until 1980 the labour force will tend to increase for demographic reasons. A second bulge in the younger age groups is on the way as a result of the rising fertility rates in the 1950's and early 60's; the decline in fertility in the second half of the 60's has also meant that a rising proportion of married women is coming into the labour force. The demographic bulge will easily offset the effects of the raising of the school leaving age in 1974; by 1976 the labour force is expected to be 1% larger than in 1972. Alternative G.D.P. projections, 1972-76 8. Under the assumption of a fast expansion of demand discussed in chapter I there is bound to'be a rapid fall in unemployment as G.D.P. grows at 5% per year for the next two years. By the beginning of 1974 unemployment should be down to 450,000 - still a rather higher level than in the previous booms of 1960-62 and 1964-66. 11-3 9. Under the altemative slow growth assumption the expansion of demand is held down to 2% per year from 1973 onwards. But there is bound to be a considerable reduction in unemployment next year compared with 1972 even if substantial deflation- ary measures are introduced during the year. On the slow growth projection unemploy- ment would fall to a trough of about 600,000 at the beginning of 1974 and then start to rise very rapidly, reaching 1,000,000 by the end of 1976. Table 11-1 G.D.P. and unemployment Year 1961 1965 1969 Actual G.D.P. (compromise estimate) Par(1) G.D.P. (£ million, 1963 prices) 25614 29256 (3.4) 24501 27912 (3. 3) Unemployment (thousands) (2) ·- I Actual first quarter level I I I I II 291 I' 303 Mid-year adjusted for lags in the response to output 330 285 ! 32055 (2. 3) 31725 (3.3) I 1972 33962 (2.0) 34741 (3.1) 870 812 Fast arowth assumption 1976 40597 (4. 8) 39543 (3.3) 415 403 Slow srowth assumption I1976 37926 (2. 7) 39543 (3. 3) 844 966 Figures in brackets are average annual growth rates. (l) The level of GDP consistent with steady 2~% unemployment. (2) Levela of unemployment resulting from past actual or projected future levels of GDP.  Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Chapter II GDP, employment and unemployment Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource CEPG Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Prospects for Economic Management 1972 - 76, pages II-1 to II-3 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 1973