https://cpes.org.uk/om/files/original/cbc31c76ef6efad4028438c8993cbbd8.pdf 453ed191df27fc3ea5869adbcce0893a Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Cambridge Economic Policy Review Volume 8 No 2 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Cambridge Economic Policy Review Volume 8 No 1 front cover Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource December 1982 Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Text Any textual data included in the document Technical and Data Appendix Regional model equations, historical data and projections This appendix describes the form of the equations in the regional forecasting model which underlies the analysis presented in Chapter 1 of this Review. Also presented is a set of statistical tables consisting of historical data and summary results of three projections up to 1990, plus a description of data sources. The regional model is itself dependent on the CEPG macroeconomic model of the UK economy for national employment, self-employment and unemployment figures which are used to constrain the regional totals. A full description of the UK model is contained in a separate technical manual. 1 In this appendix discussion of the UK model is confined to brief remarks on the form of the sectoral employment equations. The CEPG macroeconomic model for the UK Until this year employment was treated in an aggregated fashion, distinguishing only between the public and business sectors. Because of the need for a more detailed breakdown of employment for regions, an eight-sector division has been added to the UK macroeconomic model. In three sectors (Agriculture, forestry, fishing; Mining and quarrying; and Public utilities) employment changes are not closely related to fluctuations in output, and future employment is projected solely on the basis of past trends in employment. In the remaining five sectors employment is projected as a trend relative to output or investment as appropriate. The numbers of self-employed in each sector are assumed to remain constant over the 1980s in the UK as a whole. The labour force in the UK is projected using the Department of Employment measure of potential or 'demographic' labour force change, adjusted to take account of fluctuations in participation caused by changes in the pressure of demand. The three projections of national employment (including self-employment) and labour force used here are identical to those reported in the previous ' CEPG Model of the U.K. Economy. Technical Manual 8th edition Sept. 1982 by K.J. Coutts and T.F. Cripps. Dept. of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge, £5.00. Review (Vol 8 No 1) except that the names have been changed. What was formerly termed the 'Base' projection is now called 'Continued present policies'. 'A reflation programme starting in 1984' is now called 'Conventional reflation'; and 'A Labour strategy starting in 1984' is now called 'Reflation with import controls'. Details of the assumptions underlying these projections are listed in the Statistical Appendix of CEPR Vol 8 No l. Employment equations2 in the regional model Except in the case of Manufacturing, employment is projected by forecasting how each region's share of the national total will change in each sector, i.e. Agriculture, forestry, fishing: Mining and quarrying: Construction: Public utilities: Transport and communication: Private services: Government services: ESAGR = ESAGuK x trend ESMQR = ESMuK x trend ESBCR = ESBCR x trend In each of these sectors it is the trend in the ratio of the region's share in employment to its share of national population which is projected. Each equation has the form: ESXXR = ESXXuK(POPNR/POPNuK) x trend The trends are exponential and are estimated over the period 1965 to 1974 but adjusted if there is a significant deviation in trend after 1974 which is considered likely to continue over the 1980s. In some cases the residual for 1981 is built into the projection. Trend parameters and calculations of goodness of fit are available from the authors. In manufacturing the procedure was more complicated. Estimates for the future were calculated manually outside the model by projecting separately the national, structural and differential components of a shift-share analysis (see Fother- 2 Employment is taken to include self-employment. 65 gill and Gudgin, 1981, p.50). The projected components reflect a period in the past in which the growth of manufacturing output was similar to that being assumed in each macroeconomic scenario. In addition, allowance was made for differences in the effectiveness of regional policy between the relevant period of the past and that assumed for the future. Estimates for the effects of regional policy in the past were derived from Moore, Rhodes and Tyler (1977). The table below contains the assumed number of jobs gained or lost in manufacturing by each region under 'weak' and 'strong' regional policy respectively. The 'no regional policy' projection assumes that the trend in the differential components over the period 1963-75 less the employment listed under 'strong regional policy' will continue over the 1980s. Total employment in each region is simply the sum of employment (including self-employment) in the eight sectors. Employment figures for the South East are projected as national totals less the sum of the other regions. Demographic equations in the regional model The demographic side of the regional model consists of three behavioural equations for each region and two identities. The two main behavioural equations both involve the concept of the 'employment gap' defined as the difference between a region's ex ante labour force and its total employment (including self-employment). The ex ante labour force is the previous year's labour force plus the natural increase in the labour force over the year. It differs from the actual or ex post labour force by the amount of migration from the labour force which occurs over the year, and any change in the region's participation rate over the year. Each region's labour force is projected as a trend in the share of the national labour force adjusted for regional pressure of demand. In detail: LABFR = WR.LABFuK x (6GAPR/ .::1 GAPuK) a x trend where WR is the region's share of the national labour force in 1965, and .::1 GAP is the change in the employment gap since the previous year. The exponents a, which lie between zero and 1.5, were estimated by iteration. Values of a are lower for highly-urbanised regions and higher for the more rural regions. Net migration of working-age people is also projected as a function of a region's employment gap, plus an autonomous constant representing mainly urban-rural migration flows which are independent of local employment shortages. These migration flows largely occur out of urban regions and into more rural regions. Although marked time trends in the urban-rural component of migration were evident in the early 1970s, these trends were largely stable in the late 1970s and early 1980s. They have been assumed to remain stable over the 1980s. Hence the net migration equations take the form: WMIGR = AR + 0.2 x (GAPR - GAPuK) where GAP is the employment gap as defined above. The autonomous constants AR were estimated as a residual from data over the 1970s. Regional policy assumptions for the 1980s (thousands of jobs per annum) Weak regional policy Strong regional policy South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorkshire and Humberside North West North Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Stagnation Modest growth -2.4 -4.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1 -2.1 -0.7 -1.4 -0.8 -1.6 -0.4 -0.7 1.3 2.6 1.9 2.9 1.6 3.3 1.1 2.2 Recovery -7.6 -0.8 -0.8 -3.6 -2.4 -2.7 -1.2 4.0 6.2 5.2 3.6 Current Assisted Areas -12.7 -1.3 -1.3 -6.1 -4.0 -4.5 -1.9 7.0 10.0 9.0 6.0 New Areas -17.7 -2.3 -2.3 6.0 -5.0 -5.5 6.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 66 Unemployment in each region is obtained simply as the difference between the labour force and total employment including the selfemployed. Population of working age in each region is obtained by estimating the natural increase and adding or subtracting net migration. Natural increase has been calculated in a cohort survival exercise in which the number of people entering and leaving the working-age categories (15-65 for men, 15-60 for women) are estimated for the 1980s using separate and highly detailed age distributions and mortality rates for each region. Finally the total population in each region is projected as a trend relative to the population of working age. The trends are obtained from OPCS estimates of population changes outside the working-age categories. Sources of regional data Employment and self-employment Employment by sector and region is derived from the Department of Employment's New Continuous Series3 up to 1978, and from the same Department's June quarterly estimates for 1979 to 1981. Estimates for Northern Ireland after 1979 were from the Northern Ireland Digest of Statistics. Government services are not separately identified in these series, and the figures for public sector 'other services' published in Economic Trends was used4 · Numbers of self-employed (including employers) are published as regional totals and as industry totals for the UK as a whole up to 19795· Similar figures for 1980 and 1981 have been estimated on the basis of the number of VAT registrations by sector6 · For the years 1973 to 1975 regional figures were also given for individual sectors in the Regional Abstract of Statistics. For years prior to 1973 the national totals were allocated across regions in the same proportions as 1973 with self-employment in private services obtained as a residual. The same figures for years after 1975 were calculated using the EEC Labour Force Surveys of 1977 and 1979 and interpolating for intervening years. 3 Department of Employment Gazette, August 1976 and subsequent issues. ' S. Briscoe, Employment in the Public and Private Sectors 1975 to 1981. Economic Trends Dec. 1981 plus earlier articles in the same series (e.g. Economic Trends February 1976). 5 Numbers of self-employed people 1971-1979, Department of Employment Gazette, January 1982. New Estimates of Employment on a Continuous Basis. Employers and the Selfemployed 1961-1974, Department of Employment Gazette, Dec. 1976. ' Reports of Commissioners of HM Customs and Excise. Unemployment The numbers of unemployed given below are an annual average excluding schoolleavers, obtained from various issues of the Department of Employment Gazette. Unemployment rates in this Review are some 10% below those given in the D.E. Gazette because the self-employed are included within the labour force denominator in this Review but excluded in the Gazette. Net migration Net migration figures include only those within the working age groups (males 15-65, females 15-60). For the years 1971 to 1981 data were provided by OPCS based on changes in Health Area records. For the period 1965-1971 figures were taken from the Annual Abstracts of Regional Statistics, and adjusted to agree with the migration figures given in the 1971 Census (post 1974 boundary tables). Population Annual estimates of population by region were obtained direct from the OPCS for the period 1971 to 1981. For years 1965 to 1970 figures for population were derived from the Regional Abstracts of Statistics, and adjusted for boundary changes to English regions using OPCS revised estimates of population 7 · Revisions were calculated by OPCS only on total population of all ages, but the same proportional changes were assumed to apply also to the working-age population. Projections of working age population The cohort survival exercise was based on detailed regional age distributions from the 1971 Census of Population revised to agree with the OPCS annual series 1971-81. Numbers of people in each annual age group were obtained for all ages up to 65. As far as possible these numbers came directly from the Census. This was not possible for part of the age range and in this case proportionate age distributions of people within age quintiles for England as a whole were applied to the age quintiles of individual English regions. Regionally differentiated mortality rates were then applied to each annual age group to obtain the estimated number of survivors of each age in the following year8 · 7 Revised Estimates of the Population of England and Wales, Regions and Local Authority Areas 1961 to 1971, OPCS, 1975. ' Mortality rates for England were obtained from the Life Tables 1970/2 Decennial Supplement of the OPCS, pp2, No. 10, and N. I. Digest of Statistics, July 1981, and Register General for Scotland Annual Report. These were adjusted to take account of regional variations in mortality using figures derived from 'Life expectancy variations among regional health authorities' D. Gardner and S. Donnan, Population Trends 10, Winter 1977. 67 Table Al Historical series 1965-1972 Employed (including self-employed) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Agriculture (thousands) South East East Anglia South west West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland United kingdom 165 155 150 144 141 134 126 123 87 85 Bl 82 78 76 68 66 126 123 118 113 108 102 97 95 79 74 73 69 65 60 58 56 77 74 72 69 68 62 58 58 76 74 73 68 66 64 58 58 48 46 45 42 39 36 36 34 45 43 42 41 39 37 37 35 78 77 77 72 70 67 61 56 114 107 100 100 96 93 88 85 59 57 54 52 49 53 50 49 952 916 883 853 817 782 735 713 Mining (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdom 15 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 22223222 15 15 15 13 13 13 13 12 44 41 41 34 31 29 28 27 lOB 103 99 92 87 BO 78 77 122 116 112 102 96 92 89 85 33 29 28 24 20 19 17 16 118 106 100 82 70 66 65 61 95 85 78 68 61 56 50 48 62 56 53 45 41 39 39 37 33333322 617 569 545 481 437 410 396 379 Manufacturing (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdom 2430 170 431 1194 627 867 1267 463 314 732 172 8666 2407 176 437 1207 636 867 1268 464 320 732 176 8691 2325 179 432 1156 634 839 1219 455 311 710 167 8427 2294 182 433 1142 628 817 1214 448 318 707 169 8353 2311 194 438 1157 642 834 1214 460 326 724 175 8473 2280 201 450 1150 646 824 1200 481 336 718 177 8464 2223 194 448 1115 626 786 1144 465 328 678 172 8181 2136 195 441 1069 616 761 1098 449 323 652 167 7907 Construction (thousands) South East East Anglia South west West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdom 603 60 144 161 103 147 200 101 82 lBB 45 1833 598 59 145 165 105 153 205 111 87 194 45 1867 580 58 138 159 104 145 194 105 83 195 46 1808 561 59 138 155 102 144 198 108 82 197 52 1795 560 59 128 154 97 138 195 105 79 192 52 1758 515 56 131 139 93 126 183 97 77 185 49 1653 501 53 125 132 90 125 170 93 85 170 47 1594 527 59 136 142 98 131 173 98 91 171 49 1674 Public utilities (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland 142 145 146 141 135 130 124 114 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 33 34 33 32 30 30 29 28 33 34 36 34 32 32 32 31 25 27 27 29 28 27 24 25 39 42 40 40 36 35 34 32 50 51 51 49 48 46 45 41 23 23 24 23 23 22 20 19 22 22 23 22 22 20 20 19 34 35 33 34 33 31 31 29 98999999 United Kingdom 419 432 434 422 406 391 377 356 68 Table Al Historical series 1965-1972 (continued) Employed (including self-employed) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Transport & Communications (thousands) South East East Anglia south West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland 645 643 36 37 103 101 114 115 82 79 129 128 223 217 89 88 75 71 170 165 28 26 United Kingdom 1695 1670 654 36 101 109 80 127 216 85 70 162 27 1669 665 36 98 106 73 125 212 82 68 159 27 1652 652 40 94 106 76 124 209 77 66 155 26 1624 669 40 93 110 76 123 207 78 67 154 25 1641 672 40 93 108 78 123 209 75 67 151 24 1639 661 41 92 107 77 121 206 74 66 145 24 1614 Private services (thousands) South East East Anglia south west West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland 2834 198 546 590 372 591 876 328 314 659 138 United Kingdom 7448 2882 197 543 599 375 591 881 329 309 655 139 7501 2852 190 540 579 378 573 854 319 295 643 140 7362 2854 196 540 579 377 569 830 310 296 627 134 7313 2863 197 552 580 380 571 835 311 284 630 134 7338 2875 216 565 560 369 542 811 319 269 622 147 7295 2823 197 560 574 372 557 805 310 291 610 128 7228 2881 204 553 576 379 553 818 334 276 630 132 7334 Government services (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland 1294 111 291 277 182 264 373 188 171 330 89 United Kingdom 3569 1342 114 299 288 189 275 390 196 178 344 92 3706 1396 121 307 301 199 288 412 202 179 356 97 3859 1436 120 316 310 201 297 425 210 185 370 97 3966 1444 124 310 310 202 302 428 218 185 373 102 3999 1449 113 308 341 226 334 443 221 199 385 98 4117 1511 133 322 335 219 322 466 228 184 404 124 4249 1556 132 360 342 241 350 476 217 211 406 122 4414 Total employment (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wale~s Scotland N Ireland 8128 674 1688 2491 1576 2235 3069 1356 1151 2288 542 United Kingdom 25199 8187 681 1697 2522 1588 2247 3087 1360 1149 2288 546 25352 8118 678 1684 2455 1593 2197 3019 1332 1116 2252 543 24987 8109 688 1683 2429 1572 2163 2995 1303 1110 2239 543 24835 8120 704 1673 2435 1579 2166 2987 1302 1093 2243 549 24852 8064 714 1691 2421 1579 2140 2945 1321 1091 2226 561 24753 7993 698 1688 2382 1545 2095 2892 1294 1086 2171 556 24399 8010 708 1716 2349 1570 2090 2861 1287 1090 2155 554 24391 Unemployment (thousands) South East East Anglia South west West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdom 67 74 126 127 120 125 148 160 8 8 12 12 12 14 19 18 20 23 33 33 35 37 45 46 15 19 42 45 40 44 65 79 15 15 24 28 28 33 43 44 27 28 44 50 51 56 74 80 37 38 60 68 69 76 105 132 32 32 52 59 60 59 70 78 25 28 38 38 38 37 43 48 62 59 79 79 78 89 122 132 30 29 37 35 35 32 40 38 338 353 547 574 566 602 776 855 69 Table A2 Historical series 1965-1972 Unemployment, participation rates and demography 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Unemployment {percent) South East 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.0 East Anglia 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.7 2.5 South West 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.6 West Midlands 0.6 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.7 3.3 East Midlands 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.7 2.7 'Yorks Humber side North West 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.6 3.4 3.7 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.5 3.5 4.4 North 2.3 2.3 3.8 4.3 4.4 4.3 5.2 5.7 Wales 2.1 2.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.8 4.2 Scotland 2.6 2.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.8 5.3 5.8 N Irelal}d ------5-.2-------5-.0-------6-.4-------6-.1-------6-.0-------5-.-4------6-.8-------6-.4- --U--n-i-te-d--K--in-g-d-o-m---------------1-.3-------1-.4-------2-.1-------2-.3-------2-.2-------2-.-4------3-.-1------3-.-4 Participation rate {% of working age population) South East 78.9 79.5 79.3 79.4 79.7 79.4 79.2 79.5 East Anglia 71.3 71.1 70.2 70.5 71.7 72.4 70.7 70.9 South west 72.9 73.3 72.8 72.4 71.9 72.5 72.4 73.2 West Midlands 80.4 81.4 80.0 79.1 78.7 78.3 77.9 78.0 East Midlands 73.7 74.0 74.6 73.6 73.8 74.1 72.5 73.8 'Yorks Humber side North West 76.6 78.2 77.1 78.8 75.9 77.9 75.2 77.8 75.7 78.0 75.4 77.3 74.4 76.8 75.4 77.3 North 72.3 72.7 72.7 71.6 72.0 72.8 72.3 73.2 Wales 71.4 71.5 70.5 70.3 69.5 69.4 69.7 70.5 Scotland 74.9 75.3 75.4 75.4 75.7 75.6 75.1 74.7 N Ireland -----6-6-.9------6-7-.1------6-8-.1------6-7-.3------6-7-.9------6-8-.3------6-8-.-9-----6-7-.-2 --U--n-i-te-d--K--in-g-d-o-m--------------7-6-.4------7-6-.9------7-6-.4------7-6-.1------7-6-.3------7-6-.-2-----7-5-.-7-----7-6-.-1 working age migration {per thousand) South East 0.5 2.1 -1.3 1.0 -3.3 -9.4 4.5 -2.8 East Anglia 10.4 7.2 7.1 8.1 6.0 11.9 24.7 16.6 South West 6.4 2.6 1.7 3.0 2.9 3.8 10.9 12.9 West Midlands 1.3 1.6 -1.3 -0.6 -2.9 0.3 0.3 -1.3 East Midlands 2.3 4.2 0.5 5.5 2.8 -2.8 4.6 5.5 'Yorks Humber side North west -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -1.3 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -1.0 -4.4 -0.3 -8.9 -2.8 -2.4 -0.8 -2.4 -2.8 North Wales -4.2 o.o -3.7 -3.6 -7.9 -9.8 -3.7 -8.5 -8.0 -10.4 -3.7 -8.6 -3.2 -6.8 -4.3 3.1 Scotland -8.3 -9.0 -7.1 -5.2 -3.9 -10.1 -3.6 -9.2 N Ireland -5.8 -5.8 -5.9 -7.0 -5.8 -13.8 -2.3 -6.8 ---------------------------------------------------------------- ---U-n-i-te-d---K-in-g-d-o-m---------------0--.1-------0--.1-------2--.4--------0-.5--------2-.6--------5-.5-------2-.-0-------0-.8- Working-age population {thousands) South East 10381 10395 10393 10377 10343 10311 10274 10279 East Anglia 957 969 983 993 999 1005 1013 1024 South West 2342 2348 2359 2368 2374 2384 2393 2408 West Midlands 3116 3123 3120 3127 3143 3148 3143 3111 East Midlands 2160 2166 2167 2173 2178 2176 2191 2189 'Yorks Humber side North West 2952 3970 2951 3966 2951 3954 2941 3935 2928 3919 2914 3909 2914 3904 2880 3873 North 1919 1913 1903 1903 1893 1894 1887 1866 Wales 1646 1645 1636 1634 1628 1626 1621 1615 Scotland 3138 3115 3091 3075 3066 3061 3055 3059 N Ireland ------8-5-5------8-5-7------8-5-1------8-6-0------8-6-1------8-6-8------8-6-5------8-8-1 --U--n-i-te-d--K--in-g-d-o-m-------------3-3-4-3-6----3-3-4-4-8----3-3-4-0-8----3-3-3-8-6----3-3-3-3-2----3-3-2-9-6----3-3-2-6-0----3-3-1-8-5 Population {thousands) South East 16658 16766 16861 16928 16976 16996 17025 17033 East Anglia 1558 1579 1606 1629 1648 1666 1689 1719 South West 3890 3931 3968 4000 4033 4066 4096 4151 West Midlands 4924 4960 4996 5032 5076 5103 5130 5152 East Midlands 3478 3507 3537 3565 3594 3612 3642 3673 'Yorks Humber side North west 4804 6538 4822 6558 4841 6576 4856 6581 4861 6592 4862 6601 4877 6614 4881 6616 North 3135 3134 3139 3139 3138 3140 3143 3141 Wales 2694 2702 2707 2711 2716 2722 2729 2741 Scotland 5225 5215 5211 5210 5219 5224 5227 5222 N Ireland -----1-4-7-2-----1-4-8-0-----1-4-9-3-----1-5-0-6-----1-5-1-8-----1-5-3-1-----1-5-4-1-----1-5-4-1 ---U-n-i-te-d---K-in-g-d-o-m-------------5-4-3-7-8----5-4-6-5-3----5-4-9-3-3----5-5-1-5-7----5-5-3-7-2----5-5-5-2-2----5-5-7-1-2----5-5-8-6-9 70 Table A3 Historical series 1973-1981 Enlployed (including self-employed) 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Agriculture (thousands) South East 121 117 114 113 112 112 108 109 108 East Anglia 67 63 61 60 61 61 60 62 59 South west 94 90 89 90 90 90 89 89 89 West Midlands 57 54 53 53 54 55 53 53 53 East Midlands 59 56 55 54 54 53 53 53 52 Yorks & Humberside 58 53 52 53 53 51 51 51 49 North west 35 33 33 34 33 34 33 33 34 North 35 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 Wales 58 56 56 56 54 54 52 52 52 Scotland 82 79 78 79 80 79 79 78 77 N Ireland - - -4-9 - - -46 46 46 44 43 42 43 41 United kingdan 713 680 669 670 669 666 654 658 649 Minirg (thousands) South East East Anglia South west West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North west North Wales Scotland N Ireland 12 12 12 322 12 12 12 25 25 26 73 71 72 84 81 83 16 15 15 56 51 50 45 43 42 35 34 36 222 United Kingdan --------- 363 349 352 Manufacturirg (thousands) South East East Anglia South west West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdan 2087 2072 1967 203 209 201 450 458 437 1086 1091 1032 622 625 602 775 774 742 1099 1102 1054 465 470 457 334 340 321 667 685 646 166 168 156 ------7-95-5 --7-99-6 --7-61-6 Construction (thousands) South East East Anglia South west west Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North west North Wales Scotland N Ireland 567 548 510 65 63 62 150 150 150 153 142 140 106 104 104 145 144 137 192 187 174 110 108 103 94 86 82 189 188 192 50 47 48 United Kirgdan 1823 1767 1703 12 2 11 26 70 82 15 50 41 35 2 348 1906 199 430 988 596 721 1017 441 307 617 149 7373 518 60 154 142 105 140 173 108 83 194 49 1724 12 2 12 25 73 84 14 48 42 37 2 350 1911 207 435 1002 605 725 1017 437 313 624 144 7420 489 56 127 131 97 132 169 103 80 177 46 1606 13 2 11 26 75 83 14 49 40 39 2 353 1913 205 437 999 609 718 1010 421 316 612 142 7382 506 59 130 134 102 136 170 97 81 173 47 1633 13 2 11 26 73 82 14 47 39 39 2 346 1890 205 437 974 607 711 994 417 316 605 142 7297 530 64 136 139 110 139 175 100 84 177 46 1699 13 2 11 26 74 81 14 47 37 38 2 344 1823 198 428 924 577 669 946 394 293 560 131 6944 505 62 130 132 104 132 166 95 80 168 42 1617 13 2 11 25 73 80 14 45 34 37 1 333 1662 177 389 797 519 591 843 346 246 498 113 6180 454 55 117 119 94 117 148 83 71 148 32 1439 Public utilities (thousands) South East East Anglia South west West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North wales Scotland N Ireland 108 106 109 108 101 100 100 100 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 27 29 31 30 30 30 31 31 30 29 30 30 29 29 30 29 25 24 25 24 25 23 25 25 33 34 35 33 37 32 34 34 37 39 38 39 38 37 39 39 18 20 20 20 20 19 20 20 19 19 20 19 19 19 20 21 29 28 25 29 29 29 29 29 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 98 11 30 29 25 34 38 20 21 29 9 United Kirgdan 344 347 353 353 347 340 346 347 341 71 Table A3 Historical series 1973-1981 (continued) Employed (including self-employed) 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Transport & Conmunications (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland 659 650 654 633 638 642 647 650 633 42 44 45 45 45 45 46 48 45 93 93 93 86 90 91 93 94 92 107 106 107 113 105 105 106 107 102 76 78 79 76 79 81 82 82 80 118 118 121 117 116 118 121 122 115 194 190 188 182 180 183 184 182 174 71 71 73 71 69 72 72 72 70 64 64 64 62 61 61 62 62 57 146 147 148 144 141 143 142 141 136 25 25 24 23 22 22 23 23 22 United Kingdan 1596 1584 1595 1552 1546 1563 1577 1583 1525 Private services (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland 2937 2990 2985 2954 2947 3014 3069 3091 3031 214 226 238 236 238 249 254 254 244 599 574 591 586 617 628 640 638 600 599 611 609 611 625 612 611 613 589 415 395 429 437 447 452 463 476 461 585 575 597 612 617 606 598 600 579 852 866 856 846 846 854 877 877 846 340 346 343 353 372 364 357 348 339 292 286 294 313 325 318 303 296 285 646 652 672 684 696 715 736 740 710 136 131 141 145 145 155 161 161 156 United Kingdan 7614 7653 7755 7779 7875 7969 8069 8095 7839 Government services (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland 1635 137 349 362 243 348 489 235 215 421 129 1643 140 365 365 267 392 490 227 214 433 147 1705 148 386 394 289 399 523 253 237 460 147 1736 152 392 405 303 392 532 255 246 477 152 1705 147 402 407 302 395 533 252 242 469 159 1690 146 404 411 309 401 536 252 250 469 160 1701 152 409 420 314 407 545 259 254 478 165 1688 152 411 424 309 405 542 257 252 486 167 1674 152 410 424 310 406 540 255 252 486 169 United Kingdan 4564 4683 4940 5041 5013 5027 5102 5092 5078 Total employment (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland 8127 740 1775 2419 1619 2146 2915 1330 1121 2216 566 United Kingdan 24972 8138 757 1771 2423 1620 2171 2922 1327 1108 2246 576 25059 8054 766 1790 2391 1655 2166 2881 1333 1116 2257 574 24983 7980 764 1780 2369 1666 2151 2838 1331 1126 2259 575 24840 7917 766 1803 2377 1682 2158 2829 1334 1136 2252 573 24826 7989 778 1821 2371 1704 2145 2838 1308 1139 2259 581 24933 8057 793 1845 2358 1726 2142 2860 1305 1129 2284 592 25090 7979 789 1833 2308 1700 2095 2799 1266 1093 2239 578 24680 7672 745 1737 2138 1613 1970 2637 1191 1018 2119 542 23384 Unemployment (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdan 113 114 201 302 323 302 273 356 574 12 13 23 32 36 34 31 39 61 34 40 72 97 106 101 91 105 155 49 48 88 124 123 121 119 166 291 31 32 52 70 75 76 72 96 153 55 52 77 106 112 117 113 148 231 98 94 141 182 194 197 189 243 363 59 57 74 93 104 112 110 135 187 35 37 55 73 80 85 81 102 146 96 84 107 145 169 171 168 207 292 29 35 40 50 56 60 60 71 96 611 606 929 1273 1378 1376 1307 1668 2549 72 Table A4 Historical series 1973-1981 Unemployment, participation rates and demography ---------------------------------------------------19-7-3 --1-97-4---19-75---1-97-6 ---19-77---19-7-8 --1-97-9---19-80---1-98-1 Unemployment (percent} South East 1.4 1.4 2.4 3.6 3.9 3.6 3.3 4.3 7.0 East Anglia 1.6 1.7 2.9 4.0 4.5 4.2 3.8 4.7 7.5 South West 1.9 2.2 3.9 5.2 5.6 5.3 4.7 5.4 8.2 West Midlands 2.0 1.9 3.5 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 6.7 12.0 East Midlands 1.9 1.9 3.0 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.0 5.3 8.7 Yorks & Humberside 2.5 2.3 3.4 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.0 6.6 10.5 North West 3.3 3.1 4.7 6.0 6.4 6.5 6.2 8.0 12.1 North 4.2 4.1 5.3 6.5 7.2 7.9 7.8 9.6 13.6 Wales 3.0 3.2 4.7 6.1 6.6 6.9 6.7 8.5 12.5 Scotland 4.2 3.6 4.5 6.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 8.5 12.1 N Ireland ---4-.9--·-5.-7 ---6.-5 ---8-.0---8-.9---9-.4---9-.2---1-0.-9 --1-5-.1 --U-ni-te-d -K-irr-:Jd-a-n --------2-.4----2-.4----3.-6---4-.-9 ---5-.3----5-.2----5-.0----6.-3----9.-8 Participation rate (% of workirr:j age p::>pulation} South East 80.4 80.9 81.1 81.2 80.5 80.5 80.3 80.1 78.8 East Anglia 72.1 72.8 73.5 72.8 72.5 72.3 72.1 71.6 68.9 South West 74.4 73.9 75.3 75.1 75.4 75.1 74.9 74.4 71.9 West Midlands 79.1 79.1 79.3 79.6 79.4 78.6 77.6 77.3 75.7 East Midlands 74.6 74.3 76.3 77.1 77.3 77.7 77.6 77.0 75.2 Yorks & Hurnberside 76.2 76.9 77.5 77.7 77.7 76.8 76.0 75.2 73.5 North West 77.9 78.1 78.3 78.0 77.7 77.6 77.6 77.4 76.2 North 74.4 74.0 75.1 75.7 76.1 75.0 74.5 73.7 72.4 Wales 71.2 70.2 71.5 72.7 73.3 73.2 71.7 70.6 68.6 Scotland 75.5 75.6 76.8 77.5 77.5 77.4 77.6 77.2 75.5 N Ireland ---67-.3---6-8.-9 --6-9-.5---70-.3---7-0.-2 --7-1.-1---71-.6---7-1.7---6-9.-9 --U-ni-te-d-K-i-rr:-jd-an---------77-.0----77-.-1 ---7-7.-8---7-8.-0---7-7-.8---7-7-.6---7-7-.3----76-.-8 ---7-5.-2 Workirr:j age migration (per thousand} South East -2.6 -5.6 -3.5 -1.4 -1.5 -0.2 East Anglia 17.3 11.3 13.0 11.0 6.3 8.0 South West 10.3 7.3 7.3 8.4 5.5 5.5 West Midlands -0.6 -1.6 -2.9 -3.8 -1.6 -1.3 East Midlands 9.0 2.7 1.8 1.3 1.3 0.4 Yorks & Humberside 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.4 -0.3 -1.7 North West -3.6 -3.9 -3.1 -2.6 -2.3 -3.8 North -3.2 -1.1 -1.6 0.0 -2.1 -6.3 Wales 4.9 3.7 2.4 2.4 1.2 1.8 Scotland -9.8 -2.6 -10.7 -5.2 -5.4 -7.6 N Ireland - --1-1-.3- ---12-.4- ---10-.2- - --5-.6- ---12-.3- ---10-.0 --U-ni-te-d-K-ir-r:J-da-n---------0-.5-----1-.7-----2-.0-----0-.6 -1.1 -1.3 0.1 9.6 6.6 -1.9 3.0 -1.3 -3.1 -3.7 2.4 -7.0 -9.9 -0.6 0.9 6.9 6.5 -1.6 1.7 -1.7 -5.1 -3.2 0.6 -8.5 -11.0 -1.0 1.4 6.8 5.7 -2.5 1.7 -1.7 -4.1 -4.2 0.0 -2.2 -10.9 -0.3 Workirr:J-age p::>pulation (thousands} South East 10254 10201 10179 10206 10237 10300 10373 10412 10466 East Anglia 1043 1058 1073 1093 1105 1123 1144 1157 1170 South West 2430 2449 2471 2500 2531 2558 2585 2606 2630 West Midlands 3118 3125 3127 3130 3147 3169 3190 3200 3210 East Midlands 2212 2224 2237 2251 2272 2290 2317 2333 2349 Yorks & Humberside 2887 2890 2894 2904 2922 2945 2968 2982 2994 North West 3867 3860 3860 3871 3889 3909 3928 3928 3935 North 1866 1871 1873 1881 1890 1894 1899 1901 1903 Wales 1623 1631 1638 1649 1658 1671 1688 1694 1698 Scotland 3060 3082 3080 3100 3122 3140 3160 3168 3196 N Ireland ---8-84---8-87---8-83---8-89---8-95----90-2 ---91-0 ---90-6 ---91-4 --U-ni-ted--Ki-rr:-jd-an-------3-32-44---33-27-8 --3-33-15---33-47-4--3-36-68---33-90-1--3-41-6-2 --34-2-87---34-46-5 Population (thousands} South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland 17023 1752 4187 5170 3709 4894 6606 3137 2753 5220 1549 16958 1775 4213 5178 3726 4899 6589 3136 2763 5225 1549 16912 1797 4238 5176 3738 4895 6571 3132 2770 5214 1539 16882 1817 4262 5164 3744 4887 6548 3128 2772 5213 1541 16854 1829 4284 5161 3751 4882 6526 3120 2771 5202 1539 16852 1845 4301 5160 3754 4884 6506 3102 2771 5185 1541 16876 1866 4321 5158 3770 4884 6483 3090 2778 5174 1545 16914 1883 4348 5160 3783 4891 6457 3086 2780 5159 1549 16666 1886 4376 5195 3850 4912 6479 3132 2822 5145 1555 United Kirr:Jdan - - - - -56000 56011 55981 55959 55919 55902 55944 56010 56018 73 Table AS Historical growth rates 1965-1981 Employed (including self-employed) growth rates (% pa) growth rates (% pa) --------- 1965-73 1973-81 1965-81 ----- 1965-73 1973-81 1965-81 Agriculture Transport & Communications South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland -3.8 -3.3 -3.5 -4.1 -3.3 -3.4 -3.9 -3.2 -3.7 -4.0 -2.4 -1.5 -1.4 -0.8 -0.7 -1.4 -1.9 -0.2 -o.2 -1.2 -D.9 -2.1 -2.6 -2.3 -2.2 -2.4 -2.4 -2.7 -2.1 -1.7 -2.5 -2.4 -2.2 South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland 0.3 1.9 -1.3 -0.8 -0.9 -1.1 -1.7 -2.8 -2.0 -1.9 -1.4 -0.5 0.8 -0.2 -0.6 0.6 -0.3 -1.4 -0.2 -1.5 -0.9 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.7 -1.5 -1.5 -1.7 -1.4 -1.5 United kingdom -3.5 -1.2 -2.4 United Kingdom - - --0-.7- - -0.6 --- - --0 .-7 Mining Private services South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdom -2.6 5.2 -2.7 -6.8 -4.8 -4.6 -8.6 -8.9 -8.9 -6.8 -4.9 -6.4 0.8 -5.0 -1.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -1.7 -2.7 -3.5 0.6 -8.3 -1.1 -0.9 0.0 -1.9 -3.5 -2.5 -2.7 -5.2 -5.9 -6.2 -3.2 -6.6 -3.8 South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdom 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.2 1.4 -D.l -o.3 0.4 -0.9 -0.3 -0.1 -----0.3 0.4 1.6 0.0 -0.2 1.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.0 -0.3 1.2 1.7 0.4 0.4 1.3 0.6 -0.0 1.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.6 0.5 0.8 0.3 Manufacturing South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdom -1.9 2.2 0.5 -1.2 -0.1 -1.4 -1.8 0.1 0.8 -1.2 -0.4 -1.1 -2.8 -1.7 -1.8 -3.8 -2.2 -3.3 -3.3 -3.6 -3.7 -3.6 -4.7 -3.1 -2.3 0.2 -0.6 -2.5 -1.2 -2.4 -2.5 -1.8 -1.5 -2.4 -2.6 -2.1 Government services South East East Angiia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdom 3.0 0.3 1.6 2.7 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.2 3.4 2.0 2. 7 3.7 3.1 3.4 3.5 1.9 2.7 3.4 1.3 2.3 2.8 1.0 1.9 2.9 2.0 2.4 3.1 1.8 2.5 4.8 3.4 4.1 3.1 1.3 2.2 Construction South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdom -0.8 -2.7 -1.8 1.0 -2.0 -o.s 0.6 -3.1 -1.3 -0.6 -3.1 -1.9 0.4 -1.5 -0.6 -o.l -2.6 -1.4 -0.5 -3.2 -1.8 1.1 -3.5 -1.2 1.7 -3.5 -0.9 0.1 -3.0 -1.5 - - -1-.3- - --5.-3 - ---2 -.1 -0.1 -2.9 -1.5 Total employment South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdom -0.0 1.2 0.6 -o.4 0.3 -o.s -o.6 -D.2 -o.3 -0.4 0.5 -0.1 -o.7 0.1 -0.3 -1.5 -o.o -1.1 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -0.4 0.6 0.2 -1.0 0.1 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.5 o.o -0.5 Public utilities South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdom -3.3 -1.2 -2.3 -1.3 2.4 0.5 -2.5 1.2 -0.7 -1.1 -0.6 -0.9 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -2.0 0.2 -D.9 -3.7 0.2 -1.8 -3.0 1.2 -0.9 -1.8 1.1 -0.3 -1.9 -0.1 -1.0 o.o --0.1 - --0-.1 -2.4 -0.1 -1.3 Unemployment South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdom 6.8 22.5 14.4 5.2 22.4 13.5 6.9 20.9 13.7 15.9 24.9 20.4 9.5 22.1 15.6 9.3 19.7 14.4 12.9 17.8 15.3 7.9 15.5 11.7 4.3 19.5 11.7 5.6 14.9 10.2 -D.4 16.2 7.6 7.7 19.5 13.5 74 Table A6 Continued present policies Employed (including self-employed) growth rates (% pa) ---------------1-98-1 --1-98-2---19-83---19-84---1986 1990 1981-84 1984-90 1981-90 Agriculture & mining (thousands) South East 121 120 121 121 122 122 0.2 0.1 0.1 East Anglia 61 61 61 60 59 57 -0.6 -0.9 -0.8 South West 99 99 98 97 95 92 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 West Midlands 78 77 77 76 74 71 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 East Midlands Yorks & Humberside 125 129 126 129 127 129 128 130 129 130 133 130 0.8 0.2 0.6 o.o 0.7 0.1 North West 48 47 46 45 43 41 -2.5 -1.5 -1.8 North 79 78 77 77 75 73 -1.1 -0.9 -1.0 Wales 86 84 83 81 78 72 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 Scotland 113 113 113 112 111 110 -o.3 -0.4 -0.4 N Ireland - - - -42- - - -41 41 40 39 36 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 --U-ni-te-d-K-in-g-da-n---------98-2----97-7----97-1 966 956 936 -o.5 -0.5 -o.5 Manufacturing (thousands) South East 1662 1580 1532 1498 1456 1369 -3.4 -1.5 -2.1 East Anglia 177 167 161 157 152 140 -3.9 -1.9 -2.5 South West 389 370 360 354 348 333 -3.1 -1.0 -1.7 West Midlands 797 745 710 682 640 562 -5.1 -3.2 -3.8 East Midlands 519 493 476 464 448 415 -3.7 -1.8 -2.5 Yorks & Humberside 591 554 529 509 479 424 -4.9 -3.0 -3.6 North West 843 793 760 735 698 628 -4.5 -2.6 -3.2 North 346 322 306 293 273 239 -5.3 -3.4 -4.0 Wales 246 231 221 213 201 178 -4.7 -3.0 -3.6 Scotland 498 462 438 418 386 332 -5.6 -3.8 -4.4 N Ireland United Kingdan ----1-13----1-0-2 ----9-5-----89-----7-9----64 -7.6 -5.3 -6.1 6180 5819 5588 5412 5160 4684 -4.3 -2.4 -3.0 ---------------------------------------------------- Government services (thousands) South East 1674 1644 1646 1650 1708 1698 -0.5 0.5 0.2 East Anglia 152 151 152 152 159 160 0.0 0.8 0.5 South West 410 409 409 410 425 426 -0.0 0.7 0.4 West Midlands 424 424 421 419 425 405 -o.5 -0.5 -0.5 East Midlands 310 313 313 313 324 323 0.4 0.5 0.5 Yorks & Humberside 406 405 404 403 413 402 -0.3 -0.0 -0.1 North West 540 539 536 534 545 528 -o.4 -o.2 -o.3 North 255 254 250 245 245 226 -1.2 -1.4 -1.3 Wales 252 253 252 251 256 248 -0.1 -0.2 -o.2 Scotland N Ireland 486 480 477 473 483 464 -o.9 -0.3 -o.5 - - -16-9 - - -168- - -1-68- - -167 173 167 -o.2 -o.o -o.l --U-ni-te-d-K-i-ng-d-an--------5-0-78----50-40-- 5028 5017 5155 5047 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 other services and construction (thousands) South East 4216 4188 4204 4224 East Anglia 355 357 360 364 South West 838 845 849 854 West Midlands 839 843 839 836 East Midlands 660 669 672 675 Yorks & Humberside 844 844 841 839 North West 1206 1203 1192 1182 North 512 519 519 519 Wales 434 436 432 429 Scotland 1022 1018 1013 1007 N Ireland ----21-9 ---2-19--- 220 220 --Un-it-ed--Ki-ng-da-n-------11-14-4--1-11-4-1 --11-1-42--11150 4261 372 867 827 682 832 1162 516 423 996 221 11159 4331 388 895 806 699 820 1122 508 409 968 220 11167 0.1 0.8 0.6 -0.1 0.8 -o.2 -o.6 0.5 -0.4 -o.5 0.2 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.8 -0.6 0.6 -0.4 -0.9 -0.3 -0.8 -0.7 -0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 -o.5 0.7 -o.3 -0.8 -o.l -0.6 -0.6 0.1 0.0 Total employment (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland 7672 745 1737 2138 1613 1970 2637 1191 1018 2119 542 7532 736 1722 2089 1602 1932 2582 1173 1005 2074 531 7502 734 1716 2047 1588 1903 2534 1152 988 2040 523 7493 733 1715 2012 1581 1880 2496 1134 974 2011 516 7546 742 1736 1966 1584 1854 2448 1109 958 1977 511 7519 745 1746 1844 1570 1775 2319 1046 907 1874 487 -0.8 -o.5 -0.4 -2.0 -0.7 -1.6 -1.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.7 -1.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 -1.4 -0.1 -0.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 -1.0 -o.2 -o.o 0.1 -1.6 -0.3 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.3 -1.4 -1.2 united Kingdan - - - - - -23384 22977 22728 22545 22430 21834 -1.2 -0.5 -0.8 75 Table A7 Continued present policies unemployment, participation rates and demography growth rates (% pa) 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 1990 1981-84 1984-90 1981-90 unemployment (percent) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland united Kingdan 7.0 8.7 9.5 10.3 10.8 12.6 13.8 3.5 6.8 7.5 10.1 11.3 12.1 12.9 14.8 17.2 3.4 7.8 8.2 10.2 10.9 11.4 11.9 13.2 11.7 2.4 5.4 12.0 14.6 16.2 17.4 18.7 21.4 13.3 3.5 6.7 8.7 10.5 11.5 12.6 13.7 16.7 13.4 4.8 7.6 10.5 12.5 13.9 15.1 16.2 18.8 12.8 3.7 6.7 12.1 14.5 15.6 16.7 17.6 20.0 11.3 3.0 5.7 13.6 15.6 17.2 18.7 20.2 23.3 11.3 3.7 6.2 12.5 15.3 16.4 17.6 18.9 22.0 12.0 3.8 6.5 12.1 14.2 15.6 16.7 17.9 20.3 11.2 3.4 5.9 15.1 17.8 19.2 20.3 21.8 24.0 10.4 2.8 5.3 9.8 11.9 13.0 14.0 14.9 17.1 12.5 3.4 6.3 Participation rate (% of 100rking age population) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland 78.8 78.3 78.0 68.9 69.3 69.1 71.9 72.4 72.1 75.7 76.2 76.1 75.2 75.7 75.3 73.5 73.5 73.3 76.2 76.8 76.5 72.4 73.1 73.1 68.6 69.7 69.3 75.5 75.5 75.4 69.9 70.4 70.2 united Kingdan 75.2 75.4 75.2 78.0 69.0 71.9 76.1 75.5 73.2 76.4 73.4 69.2 75.3 70.1 75.1 78.1 69.1 72.1 76.1 75.9 73.1 76.4 73.9 69.2 75.5 70.6 75.3 77.5 68.4 71.5 75.5 76.6 72.2 75.8 74.0 68.7 74.9 69.8 74.8 -0.3 0.0 -0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -o.o 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.0 -0.1 WOrking age migration (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland 15 26 28 34 43 46 866667 15 8 9 11 13 16 -8 -18 -23 -25 -28 -31 4 3 3 2 1 -2 -5 -8 -9 -10 -11 -13 -16 -30 -30 -30 -30 -32 -8 -10 -11 -12 -14 -17 0 -4 -4 -4 -5 -7 -7 -31 -32 -33 -33 -35 -10 -11 -12 -12 -12 -12 united Kingdan -12 -68 -75 -73 -69 -80 WOrking-age population (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland 10466 1170 2630 3210 2349 2994 3935 1903 1698 3196 914 10534 1182 2648 3211 2363 3004 3929 1903 1701 3200 917 united Kingdan 34465 34594 10625 1196 2671 3210 2381 3016 3926 1903 1706 3204 921 34760 10702 1210 2695 3204 2397 3025 3919 1900 1709 3206 924 34892 10828 1233 2731 3176 2417 3026 3887 1883 1707 3189 925 35002 11096 1279 2814 3108 2461 3026 3825 1842 1694 3143 918 35206 0.7 1.1 0.8 -0.1 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -o.o 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 -0.5 0.4 o.o -0.4 -o.5 -0.1 -0.3 -o.l 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.8 -0.4 0.5 0.1 -o.3 -0.4 -0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 Population (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland united Kingdan 16666 1886 4376 5195 3850 4912 6479 3132 2822 5145 1555 16733 1898 4395 5184 3868 4917 6453 3127 2823 5129 1559 16818 1912 4417 5164 3887 4919 6425 3120 2824 5106 1561 16896 1928 4445 5141 3907 4920 6398 3110 2824 5087 1564 17084 1959 4502 5092 3945 4919 6341 3085 2824 5036 1568 17646 2040 4675 5024 4065 4958 6289 3055 2837 4962 1574 56018 56085 56152 56220 56355 57125 0.5 0.7 0.5 -0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.8 -0.4 0.7 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 -0.4 0.6 0.1 -0.3 -o.3 0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.2 76 Table A8 Conventional Reflation with weak Regional POlicy Employed (including self-employed) 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 growth rates (% pa) 1990 1981-84 1984-90 1981-90 Agriculture & mining (thousands) South East East Anglia South west West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North west North Wales Scotland N Ireland - -U-ni-ted- -Ki-ngdan 121 120 121 121 122 122 0.2 61 61 61 60 59 57 -0.6 99 99 98 97 95 92 -0.9 78 77 77 76 74 71 -1.0 125 126 127 128 129 133 0.8 129 129 129 130 130 130 0.2 48 47 46 45 43 41 -2.5 79 78 77 77 75 73 -1.1 86 84 83 81 78 72 -2.0 113 113 113 112 111 110 -o.3 - - 42 -- - - -41- - 41 -- - - 40 -- - 39 -- - - 36 -- - -1.8 - 982 977 971 966 956 936 -0.5 Manufacturing (thousands) South East East Anglia 1662 1580 1532 1522 1474 1392 -2.9 177 167 161 159 172 164 ~-5 South west 389 370 360 359 374 370 -2.6 West Midlands 797 745 710 693 705 632 -4.6 East Midlands 519 493 476 471 483 462 -3.2 Yorks & Humberside 591 554 529 517 533 482 -4.4 North west 843 793 760 748 743 691 -3.9 North 346 322 306 301 317 290 -4.5 Wales 246 231 221 216 226 225 -4.3 Scotland 498 462 438 424 444 401 -5.2 N Ireland ---1-13----10-2--- 95 89 90 77 -7.6 United Kingdcm 6180 5819 5588 5499 5561 5186 -3.8 ------------------------------------------ Government services (thousands) South East 1674 1644 1646 1685 1816 2028 0.2 East Anglia 152 151 152 156 169 192 0.7 South west 410 409 409 419 453 511 0.7 West Midlands 424 424 421 427 453 489 0.2 East Midlands 310 313 313 320 345 388 1.1 Yorks & Humberside 406 405 404 411 439 484 0.4 North west 540 539 536 545 581 633 0.3 North 255 254 250 251 261 273 -o.5 Wales 252 253 252 256 273 299 0.6 Scotland 486 480 477 483 514 560 -Q.2 N Ireland - - -1-69- - -1-68- - -1-68- 171 184 201 0.5 --U-ni-te-d-K-in-g-da-n--------5-07-8---5-04-0---5-02-8---5-12-4---5-488 6058 0.3 other services and construction (thousands) South East 4216 4188 East Anglia 355 357 South west 838 845 West Midlands 839 843 East Midlands 660 669 Yorks & Humberside 844 844 North West 1206 1203 North 512 519 Wales 434 436 Scotland 1022 1018 N Ireland - - -21-9 - -2-19 --Un-it-ed-K-i-ng-da-n----- 11144 11141 4204 360 849 839 672 841 1192 519 432 1013 220 11142 4237 365 857 838 677 841 1186 520 431 1010 221 11184 4320 378 880 840 692 846 1179 525 430 1012 224 11326 4393 397 911 824 712 837 1141 522 420 991 225 11373 0.2 0.9 0.7 -o.o 0.9 -0.1 -0.5 0.6 -o.3 -o.4 0.3 0.1 TOtal employment (thousands) South East East Anglia South west West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North west North Wales· Scotland N Ireland 7672 745 1737 2138 1613 1970 2637 1191 1018 2119 542 7532 736 1722 2089 1602 1932 2582 1173 1005 2074 531 7502 734 1716 2047 1588 1903 2534 1152 988 2040 523 7565 740 1731 2034 1596 1899 2524 1149 984 2030 521 7732 778 1802 2072 1650 1948 2546 1178 1007 2082 537 7935 810 1884 2015 1694 1933 2506 1158 1015 2063 539 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -1.6 -0.4 -1.2 -1.5 -1.2 -1.1 -1.4 -1.3 united Kingdan 23384 22977 22728 22773 23331 23552 -0.9 0.1 -0.9 -0.8 -1.0 0.6 0.0 -1.5 -0.9 -2.0 -0.4 -1.8 -0.5 -1.5 0.5 0.5 -1.5 -0.3 -1.2 -1.3 -0.6 0.7 -0.9 -2.4 -1.0 3.1 3.6 3.4 2.2 3.2 2.7 2.5 1.5 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.8 0.6 1.4 1.0 -0.3 0.8 -0.1 -0.6 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.4 -0.2 1.0 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 0.7 0.1 -1.8 -1.0 -2.0 -Q.4 -1.8 -0.5 -1.9 -o.8 -o.6 -2.5 -1.3 -2.2 -2.2 -1.9 -1.0 -2.4 -4.1 -1.9 2.2 2.6 2.5 1.6 2.5 2.0 1.8 0.8 1.9 1.6 2.0 2.0 0.5 1.2 0.9 -Q.2 0.9 -o.l -0.6 0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 -0.7 0.5 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 -0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 77 Table A9 Conventional Reflation with Weak Regional POlicy Unemployment, participation rates and demograt:tly 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 growth rates (% pa) 1990 1981-84 1984-90 1981-90 Unemployment (percent) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & HUmberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdan 7.0 7.5 8.2 12.0 8.7 10.5 12.1 13.6 12.5 12.1 15.1 9.8 8.7 10.1 10.2 14.6 10.5 12.5 14.5 15.6 15.3 14.2 17.8 11.9 9.5 11.3 10.9 16.2 11.5 13.9 15.6 17.2 16.4 15.6 19.2 13.0 9.5 11.4 10.7 16.7 11.9 14.4 15.9 17.8 16.9 16.0 19.6 13.3 9.2 9.9 9.2 15.1 11.1 12.8 15.0 16.4 15.7 14.3 18.7 12.2 9.0 9.6 8.4 16.0 11.9 13.5 15.1 17.3 15.1 14.4 18.0 12.3 11.1 14.8 9.4 11.6 11.2 11.0 9.6 9.6 10.5 9.8 9.1 10.5 -1.0 -2.8 -3.9 -0.7 0.0 -1.0 -o.9 -0.5 -1.9 -1.8 -1.4 -1.3 2.9 2.8 0.3 3.3 3.6 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.5 Participation rate (% of working age population) South East East Anglia South West West Midlarrls East Midlarrls Yorks & HUmberside North west North Wales Scotlarrl N Irelarrl United Kingdan 78.8 78.3 78.0 78.1 78.9 79.2 -0.3 0.2 0.1 68.9 69.3 69.1 69.0 70.0 69.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 71.9 72.4 72.1 72.0 72.7 73.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 75.7 76.2 76.1 76.2 76.7 76.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 75.2 75.7 75.3 75.6 76.7 78.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 73.5 73.5 73.3 73.3 73.7 73.6 -0.1 0.1 0.0 76.2 76.8 76.5 76.6 77.0 77.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 72.4 73.1 73.1 73.6 74.6 75.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 68.6 69.7 69.3 69.3 69.9 70.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 75.5 75.5 75.4 75.4 76.0 76.2 -0.0 0.2 0.1 69.9 70.4 70.2 70.1 71.4 71.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 75.2 75.4 75.2 75.3 76.0 76.3 o.o 0.2 0.2 Working age migration (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlarrls East Midlarrls Yorks & HUmberside North West North Wales Scotland N Irelarrl 15 26 28 34 23 24 866677 15 8 9 11 13 15 -8 -18 -23 -25 -23 -29 4 3 3 2 1 -3 -5 -8 -9 -10 -7 -12 -16 -30 -30 -30 -30 -33 -8 -10 -11 -12 -11 -14 0 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -7 -31 -32 -33 -29 -30 -10 -11 -12 -12 -12 -11 United Kingdan -12 -68 -75 -73 -72 -89 Working-age population (thousarrls) South East East Anglia South west West Midlarrls East Midlands Yorks & HUmbers.i.de North west North Wales Scotlarrl N Ireland 10466 1170 2630 3210 2349 2994 3935 1903 1698 3196 914 10534 1182 2648 3211 2363 3004 3929 1903 1701 3200 917 United Kingdan 34465 34594 10625 1196 2671 3210 2381 3016 3926 1903 1706 3204 921 34760 10702 1210 2695 3204 2397 3025 3920 1900 1709 3206 924 34892 10797 1233 2731 3182 2417 3031 3888 1887 1708 3195 925 34994 11009 1282 2810 3120 2458 3035 3818 1857 1707 3162 921 35180 0.7 1.1 0.8 -0.1 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.7 -0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.7 -0.3 0.5 0.2 -o.3 -o.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 POpulation (thousarrls) South East East Anglia South West West Midlarrls East Midlands Yorks & HUmberside North west North Wales Scotland N Irelarrl United Kingdan 16666 1886 4376 5195 3850 4912 6479 3132 2822 5145 1555 56018 16733 1898 4395 5184 3868 4917 6453 3127 2823 5129 1559 56085 16818 1912 4417 5164 3887 4919 6425 3120 2824 5106 1561 56152 16896 1928 4445 5141 3907 4920 6398 3111 2824 5086 1564 56220 17037 1959 4503 5103 3946 4928 6344 3094 2827 5046 1568 56355 17520 2046 4673 5047 4063 4976 6282 3082 2861 4995 1580 57125 0.5 0.7 0.5 -0.3 0.5 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -:0.4 0.2 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.8 -0.3 0.7 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 -o.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 -0.3 0.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.2 78 Table AlO Reflation with Import controls and Strong Regional Policy Employed (including self-employed) growth rates (% pa) 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 1990 1981-84 1984-90 1981-90 Agriculture &mining (thousands) south East 121 120 121 121 122 122 0. 2 0.1 0.1 East Anglia 61 61 61 60 59 57 -0.6 -0.9 -0.8 SOuth West 99 99 98 97 95 92 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 West Midlands 78 77 77 76 74 71 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 East Midlands 125 126 127 128 129 133 0.8 0.6 0.7 Yorks & Humberside 129 129 129 130 130 130 0.2 0.0 0.1 North West 48 47 46 45 43 41 -2.5 -1.5 -1.8 North 79 78 77 77 75 73 -1.1 -0.9 -1.0 Wales 86 84 83 81 78 72 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 Scotland 113 113 113 112 111 110 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 N Ireland - - - -4-2 - - - 41 -- - - - 41 - 40 39 36 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -U-n-ite-d -K-ing-da-n -------98-2 ---97-7 ---971---9-66---9-56---9-36----o-.5----0-.5----o.-5 Manufacturing (thousands) SOuth East 1662 1580 1532 1496 1508 1458 -3.4 -0.4 -1.4 East Anglia 177 167 161 160 171 189 -3.3 2.9 0.8 SOuth West 389 370 360 358 372 396 -2.7 1.7 0.2 West Midlands 797 745 710 694 714 743 -4.5 1.1 -0.8 East Midlands 519 493 476 478 485 503 -2.7 0.8 -o.4 Yorks & Humberside 591 554 529 518 519 549 -4.3 1.0 -0.8 North West 843 793 760 749 757 763 -3.9 0.3 -1.1 North 346 322 306 308 320 340 -3.8 1.6 -0.2 Wales 246 231 221 219 227 241 -3.9 1.6 -0.2 Scotland 498 462 438 429 435 442 -4.8 0.5 -1.3 N Ireland ---1-13---1-02----9-5 ---9-3 ----91----88----6-.3-----0.-9 ----2.-7 --U-ni-ted--Ki-ng-d-an-------6-1-80---5-81-9 ---55-88---5-50-2 5598 5712 -3.8 0.6 -0.9 Government services (thousands) SOuth East 1674 1644 1646 1721 1888 2124 East Anglia 152 151 152 159 176 201 South West 410 409 409 427 471 536 West Midlands 424 424 421 437 471 514 East Midlands 310 313 313 327 359 406 Yorks & Humberside 406 405 404 420 456 506 North West 540 539 536 557 603 664 North 255 254 250 256 271 287 Wales 252 253 252 262 284 313 Scotland 486 480 477 494 535 587 N Ireland ---1-69----16-8 ---1-68- 175 191 211 - -Un-it-ed-K-in-gd-an- - - - - - -50-78- - -50-40 5028 5233 5705 6349 0.9 3.6 2. 7 1.4 4.0 3.2 1.4 3.8 3.0 0.9 2.8 2.2 1.8 3.7 3.1 1.1 3.2 2.5 1.0 3.0 2.3 0.2 1.9 1.3 1.3 3.0 2.4 0.5 2.9 2.1 1-.2- - -3.2- - -2-.5 1.0 3.3 2.5 other services and construction (thousands) SOuth East East Anglia south West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdan 4216 4188 4204 4287 4478 355 357 360 370 392 838 845 849 868 914 839 843 839 849 872 660 669 672 686 719 844 844 841 851 877 1206 1203 1192 1200 1223 512 519 519 527 545 434 436 432 436 446 1022 1018 1013 1023 1051 - - -2-19- - 219 --- - - 220 -- - - 223 -- - - 233 11144 11141 11142 11319 11751 4808 436 1001 907 780 915 1252 573 459 1086 247 12465 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.4 1.3 0.3 -0.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.5 1.9 1.5 2.8 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.1 0.9 2.2 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.7 1.7 1.4 1.6- - -1-.3 Total employment (thousands) SOuth East East Anglia SOuth West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland 7672 7532 7502 7625 7996 8512 -0.2 1.9 1.2 745 736 734 749 798 884 0.2 2.8 1.9 1737 1722 1716 1750 1852 2025 0.3 2.5 1.7 2138 2089 2047 2055 2131 2236 -1.3 1.4 0.5 1613 1602 1588 1618 1692 1822 0.1 2.0 1.4 1970 1932 1903 1919 1982 2100 -0.9 1.5 0.7 2637 2582 2534 2550 2626 2720 -1.1 1.1 0.3 1191 1173 1152 1167 1212 1272 -0.7 1.4 0.7 1018 1005 988 998 1035 1084 -0.7 1.4 0.7 2119 2074 2040 2058 2132 2225 -1.0 1.3 0.5 542 531 523 531 554 582 -o. 7 1.6 0.8 United Kingdan 23384 22977 - 2-27-28- -2-301-9 24010 25463 -0.5 1.7 1.0 79 Table All Reflation with Import controls and Strong Regional Policy Unemployment, participation rates and demography growth rates (% pa) 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 1990 1981-84 1984-90 1981-90 Unemployment (percent) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdan 7.0 7.5 8.2 12.0 8.7 10.5 12.1 13.6 12.5 12.1 15.1 9.8 8·7 10.1 10.2 14.6 10.5 12.5 14.5 15.6 15.3 14.2 17.8 11.9 9.5 11.3 10.9 16.2 11.5 13.9 15.6 17.2 16.4 15.6 19.2 13.0 9.0 10.6 9.9 15.9 11.1 13.6 15.1 16.8 16.0 15.0 18.6 12.5 6.8 8.0 7.4 13.3 9.3 11.8 13.0 14.5 13.9 12.8 16.7 10.3 4.2 3.8 3.4 9.1 7.0 7.7 9.7 11.2 10.8 9.4 13.0 7.0 8.7 12.1 6.5 10.0 8.6 8.9 7.8 7.4 8.4 7.4 7.3 -11.8 -15.8 -16.4 -8.9 -7.4 -9.0 -7.1 -6.5 -6.3 -7.5 -5.8 8.3 -9.2 -5.4 -7.4 -9.4 -3.0 -2.3 -3.4 -2.4 -2.1 -1.6 -2.8 -1.6 -3.7 Participation rate (% of working age pop..~lation) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdan 78.8 78.3 78.0 78.3 79.4 80.9 -0.2 0.6 0.3 68.9 69.3 69.1 69.2 70.4 71.6 0.2 0.6 0.4 71.9 72.4 72.1 72.1 73.2 74.6 0.1 0.6 0.4 75.7 76.2 76.1 76.3 77.2 78.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 75.2 75.7 75.3 75.9 77.2 79.8 0.3 0.8 0.7 73.5 73.5 73.3 73.4 74.3 75.1 -0.1 0.4 0.2 76.2 76.8 76.5 76.7 77.6 78.9 0.2 0.5 0.4 72.4 73.1 73.1 73.8 75.1 76.9 0.6 0.7 0.7 68.6 69.7 69.3 69.5 70.4 71.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 75.5 75.5 75.4 75.5 76.6 77.8 o.o 0.5 0.3 - - - - - - - - -69.9 70.4 70.2 70.6 71.8 72.7 0.3 0.5 0.4 75.2 75.4 75.2 75.4 76.5 77.9 0.1 0.5 0.4 Working age migration (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland 15 26 28 30 32 15 866678 15 8 9 11 13 15 -8 -18 -23 -26 -24 -22 4 3 3 2 1 -5 -5 -8 -9 -10 -12 -10 -16 -30 -30 -30 -30 -33 -8 -10 -11 -12 -11 -12 0 -4 -4 -4 -4 -6 -7 -31 -32 -32 -31 -32 -10 -11 -12 -12 -12 -12 United Kingdan -12 -68 -75 -76 -73 -92 Working-age pop..~lation (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland 10466 1170 2630 3210 2349 2994 3935 1903 1698 3196 914 10534 1182 2648 3211 2363 3004 3929 1903 1701 3200 917 United Kingdan 34465 34594 10625 1196 2671 3210 2381 3016 3926 1903 1706 3204 921 34760 10698 1210 2695 3204 2397 3024 3919 1901 1709 3207 924 34889 10806 1233 2730 3180 2417 3024 3887 1888 1708 3193 926 34993 10985 1283 2809 3140 2455 3031 3821 1862 1701 3155 921 35164 0.7 1.1 0.8 -0.1 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.7 -o.3 0.4 o.o -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -o.3 -0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 -0.2 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 Pop..Jlation (thousands) South East East Anglia South West West Midlands East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North West North Wales Scotland N Ireland United Kingdan 16666 1886 4376 5195 3850 4912 6479 3132 2822 5145 1555 16733 1898 4395 5184 3868 4917 6453 3127 2823 5129 1559 16818 1912 4417 5164 3887 4919 6425 3120 2824 5106 1561 16891 1928 4446 5141 3908 4920 6398 3112 2824 5088 1564 17054 1959 4502 5101 3946 4916 6342 3096 2827 5042 1570 17489 2050 4673 5082 4059 4971 6290 3093 2852 4986 1581 56018 56085 56152 56220 56355 57125 0.4 0.7 0.5 -0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.2 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.8 -0.2 0.6 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.7 -0.2 0.6 0.1 -0.3 -o.l 0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.2 80 · Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Technical and Data Appendix Regional model equations, historical data and projections Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Graham Gudgin Barry Moore John Rhodes Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Cambridge Economic Policy Review Volume 8 No 2, pages 65 - 80 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource December 1982