https://cpes.org.uk/om/files/original/ab078abaf387e620bfa757c285ec7ecf.pdf 0d312dee556eef4c2e6af281d13738c7 Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Cambridge Economic Policy Review Volume 8 No 1 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource April 1982 Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Text Any textual data included in the document Statistical Appendix Historical data and projections for the UK economy This Appendix presents a set of statistical tables consisting of historical data and summary results of four projections for 1982 to 1990 derived from the CEPG macroeconomic model of the UK.* The data presented in the tables are based on information available up to the end of February 1982 (data for 1981 are estimated from provisional monthly and quarterly statistics). The policy assumptions for each projection and the common set of external assumptions are set out below. The series presented in the tables generally conform with official statistics; additional concepts are defined and explained briefly in the 'Notes and definitions' below. The following table illustrates the sensitivity of the main results, in the short-term and the longterm, to errors in assumptions about the most important exogenous factors and areas of uncertainty. *A full definition and description of the variables and current version of the model used to generate the projections in this Appendix will be provided from August 1982 in an updated technical manual (CEPG Model of the UK Economy, Technical Manual, Eighth Edition) available from the Department of Applied Economics, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge, CB3 9DE, UK, price £5.00. The main assumptions which may be a significant source of error include those about growth of world trade and the UK's export performance, growth of non-oil import penetration, depreciation of the exchange rate, the real price of oil, the magnitude of sustainable trade deficits, the rate of energy saving, growth of aggregate productivity and wage bargaining behaviour. An interesting feature of the sensitivity estimates is that the degree of uncertainty does not appear to increase proportionately in the long term, implying that longer-run feedbacks are generally at least mildly stabilising. The Appendix tables consist of the following: Al-AS A6 and A7 A8 and A9 AlO and All Al2 and Al3 Historical series and growth rates, 1964-81 A base projection for 1982-90 A projection for 1982-90 with spontaneous exportled recovery A projection for 1982-90 with reflation from 1984 onwards A projection for 1982-90 with a Labour strategy from 1984 onwards. Sensitivity of main projection results Domestic expenditure GDP Manufacturing output Unemployment Consumer price inflation Margins of error in relation to level in: Short term Long term (1983) (1990) ± 4% ± 6% ± 200 thousand ± 3% ± 13% ± 600 thousand ± 6% 44 Common external assumptions The UK's export markets for manufactures are assumed to grow by 5% a year in 1982 and 1983, and 7% a year thereafter. The world price of oil falls by 5% in 1982, increases by 5% in 1983 and rises by 10% a year for the rest of the decade. World prices of manufactured exports, imported materials and food (measured in terms of a basket of foreign currencies) all grow at 5% a year throughout the decade. Base projection Central government current purchases are planned to grow by 1Yz% a year in real terms from 1982 with constant expenditure on employment. Local authorities' current purchases are planned to remain constant while local authority employment falls by 1% a year. Public investment is planned to be constant in real terms. Planned tax rates incorporate changes announced in the Budget. The nominal exchange rate declines by 5% this year, 0% in 1983, 10% in 1984, 2% in 1985 and then remains constant. Tax rates and public expenditure plans are adjusted if necessary to be consistent with a deficit in the basic balance of payments (current account and long-term capital) rising to £2 billion at 1975 prices. Spontaneous recovery Export performance is assumed to improve by the amount needed to generate GOP growth of I 'h% this year, 2Yz% in 1983 and rates rising to 4% a year in 1986, accompanied by faster growth in public sector investment. Fiscal plans are otherwise adjusted as in the base projection. A reflation programme starting in 1984 Central and local authority real expenditure on goods and services and grants is substantially increased by amounts ranging from 4'h %, between 1984 and 1986, for local authority current purchases, to 15 Yz% for grants to households. The exchange rate depreciates by 10% in 1984 and 1985 and then declines by 2% a year. A temporary incomes policy is introduced in 1984 and 1985 and indirect taxes are cut by amounts consistent with the basic balance of payments going into deficit by £4 billion at 1975 prices. Exchange controls are re-introduced to limit capital outflows. A Labour strategy starting in 1984 Public expenditure is substantially increased, particularly local authority spending which increases by about 15% between 1984 and 1986 and grants to households (up by 30%). Central govern- ment current expenditure grows by about 2% a year over the same period. Public investment increases by about 20%. Tariffs are imposed on imports of manufactures and services beginning at 15%, rising to 25% in 1986 and eventually reaching 50% by 1990. The exchange rate depreciates to improve the cost competitiveness of exports by 2% a year until1990. It is assumed that retaliation will cut UK non-oil exports by 7% in 1984, a further 7% in 1985, and an additional 1% each year thereafter. Indirect taxes on consumption are reduced by amounts consistent with the same target for the basic balance of payments as in the reflation programme. Taxes on profits and other forms of unearned income are increased to the rates in force in the early 1970s. Subsidies are provided on fixed investment. Exchange controls are re-introduced on external capital flows and membership of the EEC is suspended. Notes and definitions Real income and balance of payments series are measured in terms of 1975 purchasing power. Series 'at 1975 domestic purchasing power' represent money values divided by the deflator for total domestic expenditure with 1975 as the base. Balance of payments series 'at 1975 export purchasing power' represent money values divided by the deflator for exports of goods and services excluding oil. Expenditure, output and income Expenditures on GOP at 1975 market prices correspond exactly with Blue Book definitions, except for stockbuilding which includes the residual error between compromise and expenditure estimates of GOP. National income is defined as money domestic expenditure plus the current balance of payments, divided by the domestic expenditure deflator. The difference between real national income and GOP at constant market prices consists of net income from abroad plus the effect of changes in the domestic expenditure deflator relative to the GOP deflator (the terms of trade effect). Output is disaggregated into 'North Sea', 'manufacturing', 'other business output' and 'public services'. Public services output is defined as the volume of expenditure on general government employment. The residual error between income and compromise estimates of GOP is allocated to profits and self-employment income. Employment and unemployment Employment is defined as the mid-year estimate of employees in employment, including HM forces, and unemployment as the annual average of 45 .... monthly figures for UK wholly unemployed, excluding school leavers and adult students. Financial balances The private sector surplus includes the residual error between compromise and income estimates of GDP and, together with the public sector deficit, is measured before private sector payments of capital taxes. Costs and prices Money wage settlements are derived from an index compiled by the CEPG. The real value of wage settlements is the real value of wage rates (adjusted for direct taxes and social security contributions) at the date of settlement. The average earnings series covers the whole economy. The weighted exchange rate is the effective exchange rate for sterling published in Financial Statistics, expressed as an annual average. Export competitiveness is defined as the ratio of normal unit costs in the business sector, adjusted for sales taxes on exports, to the world price of manufactured exports measured in a common currency (a fall in the index implies an improvement in UK export competitiveness). Public sector accounts Indirect taxes are shown net of subsidies; direct tax includes income tax, corporation tax and national insurance contributions. Tax revenues associated with the North Sea - corporation tax on North Sea profits, Petroleum Revenue Tax, Supplementary Petroleum Duty and royalties - are shown as a separate series. Public sector property income comprises gross trading income excluding stock appreciation, rent (including the imputed charge for consumption of non-trading capital), dividends and interest. Expenditure on goods and services includes consumption, fixed investment and stockbuilding. Grants comprise current and capital grants to the private sector and current transfers abroad (including contributions to the EEC budget). Balance of payments Balance of payments series are shown in terms of export purchasing power. The series therefore include terms of trade or relative price changes. Non-oil trade is disaggregated into food and basic materials, manufactures and services. Net income from abroad includes interest, profits, dividends and current transfers. North Sea account The value-added from North Sea activities, defined as value of sales of oil and gas less operating costs, is allocated between tax revenue to the UK government and post-tax profits to UK and foreign companies. 46 Table Al Historical Series 1964-1972 Expenditure, output, employment and prices 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 Expenditure, output and income (£ billion, at 1975 market prices) Consumers' expenditure Public consumption Private fixed investment Public fixed investment Stockbuilding 51.3 17.2 8.5 7.0 1.9 52.1 17.6 8.9 7.4 1.7 53.2 18.1 8.7 7.9 1.1 54.4 19.1 9.1 9.0 0.3 56.0 19.2 9.8 9.0 1.3 Exports of goods & servs Imports of goods & servs 15.0 18.4 15.7 18.5 16.4 19.0 16.5 20.4 18.6 22.0 Gross domestic product of which: North Sea manufacturing other business output public services 82.4 0.0 22.6 49.3 10.5 84.8 0.0 23.2 50.8 10.7 86.3 0.0 23.6 51.6 11.1 88.1 o.o 23.8 52.8 11.6 92.0 0.0 25.5 54.6 11.9 Net income from abroad Terms of trade effect National income 0.6 1.9 84.9 0.6 2.1 87.6 0.5 2.4 89.3 0.4 2.8 91.3 0.2 2.6 94.8 Employment and unemployment (millions) Public services Manufacturing Other employment 3.5 8.4 11.3 3.6 8.6 11.4 3. 7 8.6 11.4 3.9 8.3 11.0 4.0 8.2 10.8 Total employment 23.2 23.5 23.7 23.2 23.0 Unemployment 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Financial balances (£ billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Private sector surplus Public sector deficit Current bal of payments 2.3 3.2 -0.9 2.6 2.7 -0.1 3.0 3.5 2.5 2.7 4.1 3.1 0.3 -0.6 -0.5 Costs and prices (% increase over previous year) Real wage settlements Money wage settlements Average money earnings Consumer prices Post-tax real earnings 3.1 -1.2 -3.6 6.7 5.1 1.9 7.0 6.~ 6.4 3.5 4.9 4.0 2.8 -0.4 1.1 1.3 -1.0 5.2 4.6 6.2 7.8 2.6 4.7 2.8 1.3 (Indices, 1975=100) Weighted exchange rate Export competitiveness 150.5 150. 8 150.8 147.1 129.0 104.8 105.5 107.9 107.3 98.5 1969 56.3 18.8 10.4 8.6 2.3 20.5 22.6 94.3 0.0 26.4 55.9 12.0 0.6 2.6 97.5 4.0 8.4 10.6 23.0 0.6 1.4 0.4 1.0 -2.5 4.1 7.2 5.7 0.3 129.5 101.2 1970 57.8 19.1 10.7 8.8 2.0 21.6 23.8 96.2 0.0 26.5 57.3 12.3 0.8 3.0 100.0 4.1 8.3 10.4 22.9 0.6 1.6 0.0 1.6 5.6 13.1 12.9 5.9 5.3 128.2 103.1 1971 59.7 19.7 11.1 8.6 0.4 23.0 25.0 97.5 0.1 26.2 58.5 12.7 0.5 3. 4 101.5 4.2 8.1 10.2 22.5 0.8 3.7 1.7 2.0 5.1 13.9 11.4 8.4 2.5 127.9 107.9 1972 63.3 20.5 11.8 8.0 0.9 23.3 27.6 100.1 0.1 26.9 60.0 13.2 0.5 4.2 104.8 4.4 7.8 10.3 22.5 0.9 4.2 3.8 0.4 4.7 11.2 13.0 6.6 7.2 123.3 109.6 47 Table A2 Historical Series 1964-1972 Public sector accounts, balance of payments and North Sea 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Public sector accounts (£ billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power Net indirect taxes 10.0 10.6 11.3 11.8 12.8 14.2 14.4 13.8 13.2 Direct tax & NI contribs North Sea tax revenue 12.8 0.0 14.0 0.0 14.8 0.0 16.3 0.0 17.3 o.o 17.9 0.0 19.3 0.0 19.0 0.0 18.6 0.0 Property income ------4-.5-------4-.7-------4-.8-------5-.1-------5-.6-------5-.8-------5-.-6------5-.6-------5-.-7 Total receipts 27.2 29.3 30.9 33.3 35.8 37.9 39.3 38.4 37.6 Exp on goods & services 20.5 21. 3 22.6 24.9 24.9 24.0 25.1 26.0 26.4 Grants 6.5 7.2 7.4 8.6 9.8 10.1 10.1 10.3 11.0 Debt interest ------3-.4-------3-.5-------3-.6-------3-.9-------4-.1-------4-.2-------4-.1-------3-.-9------3-.-9 Total outlays 30.4 32.0 33.6 37.4 38.8 38.2 39.3 40.2 41.4 Financial deficit Borrowing requirement 3.2 2.7 2.7 4.1 3.1 0.4 0.0 1.7 3.8 2.5 2.9 2.2 4.2 2.8 -0.9 0.0 2.4 3.3 Balance of payments (£ billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Non-oil exports food & raw materials manufactures services total 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 9.0 9.5 9.9 9.6 11.0 12.5 12.8 13.6 13.4 ------3-.9-------4-.0-------4-.3-------4-.7-------5-.3-------5-.8-------6-.4-------7-.0-------7-.-2 14.5 15.1 15.8 15.9 18.0 20.1 21.1 22.6 22.7 Non-oil imports food & raw materials manufactures services total 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.5 5. 0 5.1 5.5 6.2 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.5 10.0 ------4-.0-------4-.1-------4-.2-------4-.4-------4-.5-------4-.9-------5-.5-------5-.-9------6-.0- 15.1 14.9 15.1 15.9 17.8 18.6 19.4 19.8 21.6 Non-oil trade balance -0.6 0.2 0.6 -o.o 0.2 1.5 1.7 2.7 1.1 Balance on oil -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -1.0 -1.3 -1.2 Net income from abroad ------0-.6------0--.6-------0-.5-------0-.4-------0-.2-------0-.6-------0-.8-------0-.5-------0-.-5 C--u-r-r-e-n-t--a-cc-o--u-n-t---------------0--.8-------0--.1-------0-.3-------0--.6-------0--.5-------1-.0-------1-.5-------2-.0-------0-.-4 North Sea account (£ billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Value of sales 0.0 o.o o.o o.o 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 Operating costs UK tax revenue UK post-tax profits Post-tax profits abroad 0.0 0.0 o.o 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 o.o 0.0 0.0 0.0 o.o 0.0 0.0 0.0 o.o 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 o.o 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 o.o 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 o.o o.o - 48 Table A3 Historical Series 1973-1981 Expenditure, output, employment and prices 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 Expenditure, output and income (£ billion, at 1975 market prices) Consumers' expenditure Public consumption Private fixed investment Public fixed investment Stoc kbuild ing 66.3 21.5 12.3 8.9 3.3 65.1 21.8 11. 6 9.0 1.5 64.7 23.0 ll. 5 8.9 -2.0 64.8 23.2 ll. 8 8.9 -0.8 64.6 22.9 12.4 7.7 0.9 68.2 23.4 13.8 7.0 0.1 Exports of goods & servs Imports of goods & servs 26.0 30.9 27.9 31.2 27.2 29.0 29.7 30.2 31.6 30.6 32.2 31.8 Gross domestic product of which: North Sea manufacturing other business output public services 107.3 0.1 29.3 64.3 13.6 105.6 0.2 29.0 62.5 14.0 104.4 0.2 27.0 62.5 14.8 107.3 0.6 27.5 64.2 15.1 109.6 1.6 28.0 65.0 15.0 113.1 2.2 28.1 67.7 15.0 Net income from abroad Terms of trade effect National income 1.2 2.2 llO. 8 1.2 -2.0 104.8 0.3 -0.0 104.7 0.5 -0.7 107.1 -0.8 -0.3 108.6 -0.9 1.1 113.3 Employment and unemployment (millions) Public services Manufacturing Other employment 4.6 7.8 10.6 4.7 7.9 10.6 4.9 7.5 10.6 5.0 7.2 10.6 5.0 7.3 10.6 5.0 7.3 10.8 Total employment 23.0 23.1 23.0 22.9 22.9 23.1 Unemployment 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.4 Financial balances (£ billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Private sector surplus Public sector deficit Current bal of payments 4.1 5.5 -1.5 3.1 7.2 -4.1 7.2 8.7 -1.5 7.3 8.0 -0.8 5.2 5.3 -0.0 7.0 6.4 0.7 Costs and prices (% increase over previous year) Real wage settlements Money wage settlements Average money earnings Consumer prices Post-tax real earnings 0.9 9.6 13.0 8.6 3.1 -2.1 15.8 18.8 17.3 -1.8 4.6 32.4 31.0 23.6 2.2 -2.3 16.9 14.6 15.6 -2.2 -4.8 8.9 10.6 15.2 -2.5 2.7 11.3 13.8 8.9 6.5 (Indices, 1975=100) Weighted exchange rate Export competitiveness lll. 8 108.3 100.0 101.1 95.8 100.0 85. 7 94. 6 81.2 81.5 95.6 100.1 1979 71.4 23.8 14.1 6.8 1.2 33.0 35.3 115.1 3.1 28.2 68.5 15.2 -0.9 2.7 116.8 5.1 7.2 11.0 23.2 1.3 5.3 5.8 -0.5 6.0 16.9 16.3 12.7 4.5 87.3 109.0 1980 71.5 24.4 14.3 6.4 -3.1 33.3 34.1 112.7 3.1 25.6 68.8 15.2 -1.2 3.6 115.1 5.1 6.8 10.9 22.8 1.7 7.8 6.2 1.6 1.5 17.3 20.9 15.9 3.5 96.1 125.0 1981 71.6 24.4 13.2 5.9 -4.0 32.5 33.3 110.4 3.5 24.1 67.5 15.2 -0.6 3.8 113.6 5.1 6.0 10.4 21.5 2.5 7.7 5.2 2.5 -4.2 9.3 14.9 10.9 1.3 94.9 132.9 49 Table A4 Historical Series 1973-1981 Public sector accounts, balance of payments and North Sea 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Public sector accounts (£ billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power Net indirect taxes Direct tax & Nl contribs North Sea tax revenue Property income 12.9 19.5 0.0 6.3 10.5 21.9 0.0 6.4 10.4 23.5 0.0 6.2 11.3 23.6 0.1 7.3 12.8 22.8 0,2 7.3 13.5 22.5- 0.3 7.3 15.6 22.0 0.8 6.7 16.2 22.3 1.5 6.9 16.8 22.5 2.6 7.2 Total receipts ----------------------------~------------------------------------------- 38.7 38.8 40.1 42.3 43.0 43,7 45.2 46.9 49,2 Exp on goods & services 28.5 29.7 32.4 32.2 29.6 29.7 29.8 31.7 31.7 Grants 11.4 11.3 11.6 12.7 13.3 14.8 15.1 15.2 16.2 Debt interest ------4-.4-------5-,0-------4-.8-------5-.3-------5-.4-------5-.6-------6-.0-------6-,3-------6-.-5 Total outlays 44.3 46.1 48,8 50.3 48.3 50.0 51.0 53.1 54,4 Financial deficit 5,5 7.2 8.7 8.0 5.3 6.4 5.8 6.2 5.2 B--o-r-ro-w--in-g---re-q-u--i -re-m--en--t ---------6-.3-------8-,0------1-0-.5-------7-,9-------4-,6-------5-,8-------7-.7-------6-.4-------4-.-9 Balance of payments (£ billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Non-oil exports food & raw materials manufactures services total 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.1 14.8 16.1 15.8 17.3 18.7 18.8 19.0 19.3 18.7 ------7-.9-------8-.1-------7-.9-------8-,6-------8-.7-------8-.6-------8-.-9------8-.8-------8-.-5 25.2 27.0 26.5 28.7 30.5 30.8 31.3 31.6 30.3 Non-oil imports food & raw materials manufactures services total 6.8 6,8 6.1 6.4 6.5 6,0 5.9 5.0 4.7 13,0 14.3 12.7 13.6 14.8 15.8 17.9 17.0 16.8 ------6-.7-------6-,8-------6-,3-------6-.5-------6-,3-------6-.1-------6-.4-------6-,4-------6-.-5 26.5 28,0 25.1 26.6 27.6 27.8 30.1 28.4 28,0 Non-oil trade balance -1.2 -1.0 1.4 2.2 2.9 3.0 1.1 3.2 2.3 Balance on oil -1.5 -4.1 -3.2 -3.4 -2.1 -1.5 -0.8 -0.3 1.1 Net income from abroad -----1--.2------1--.2-------0-.3-------0-.5-------0--.7-------0--.8-------0--.9-------1--.2--------0-.6C--u-r-r-e-n-t--a-c-c-o-u-n-t---------------1--.5-------3--.9-------1--.5-------0--.7-------0--.0-------0-.6--------0-.5-------1-.7-------2-.-7 North Sea account (£ billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Value of sales Operating costs UK tax revenue UK post-tax profits Post-tax profits abroad 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.2 3.8 5,3 6.7 o.o 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0,2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0,2 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 0.1 0,1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.9 2.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.1 50 Table A5 Historical Growth Rates (average annual increases, % per year) 1965-73 1973-81 1965-81 Expenditure, output and income (£ billion, at 1975 market prices) Consumers' expenditure Public consumption Private fixed investment Public fixed investment 3.1 1.0 2.0 2.5 1.6 2.1 4.2 1.0 2.6 2.4 -5.1 -1.4 Exports of goods & servs 6.5 2.8 4.6 Imports of goods & servs 6.6 0.9 3.7 ------------------------ Gross domestic product 3.0 0.3 1.7 of which: manufacturing 3.0 -2.4 0.2 other business output 3.0 0.6 1.8 public services 3.0 1.4 2.2 National income 3.0 0.3 1.6 Employment and unemployment (millions) Public services Manufacturing Other employment 3.1 -1.1 -0.8 1.3 -3.2 -0.3 2.2 -2.1 -0.6 Total employment -0.3 -0.8 -0.5 Costs and prices (% increase over previous year) Real wage settlements Money wage settlements Average money earnings Consumer prices Post- tax real earnings 1.3 0.1 0.7 7. 9 15.9 11.8 9.7 17.5 13.5 5.8 14.9 10.3 2.9 1.4 2.2 Weighted exchange rate Export competitiveness -3.7 -0.5 -2.0 3.5 -2.9 1.5 Public sector accounts (£ billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Net indirect taxes 2.4 3. 3 2.9 Direct tax & NI contribs 4.3 1.8 3.0 Property income 3.7 1.8 2.7 Total receipts 3.5 3.0 3.3 Exp on goods & services Grants Debt inter est 3.7 1.4 2.5 6. 0 4.5 5.2 2.9 4.9 3.9 Total outlays 4.2 2.6 3.4 Balance of payments (£ billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Non-oil exports food & raw materials manufactures services 5.9 2.7 4.3 5.8 3.0 4.4 8.7 0.9 4.7 total 6.6 2. 3 4.5 Non-oil imports food & raw materials manufactures services 2.2 12.4 6.3 -4.4 3.3 -0.4 -1.2 7.8 2.9 total 7.4 0.7 4.0 51 Table A6 Base Projection Expenditure, output, employment and prices growth rates (% pa) -----------------------------19-8-1------19-8-2------19-8-3------1-98-4------1-9-8-6-----1-9-9-0--1-9-8-1--8--3--1-9-8-3---9-0--1-9-8-1---9-0 Expenditure, output and income (£ billion, at 1975 market prices) Consumers' expenditure Public consumption Private fixed investment Public fixed investment Stockbuilding 71.6 24.4 13.2 5.9 -4.0 70.8 24.5 12.8 6.0 -1.0 72.9 24.6 11.9 6.0 0.4 72.7 24.7 ll. 8 6.0 0.4 75.6 25.7 10.9 6.2 0.7 81.3 25.8 10.7 6.2 0.6 0.9 0.3 -5.1 0.7 1.6 0.7 -1.5 0.5 1.4 0.6 -2.3 0.6 Exports of goods & servs 32.5 32.0 31.8 32.8 35.5 41.4 -1.0 3.8 2.7 Imports Gross d of goo omestic ds pr & o serv duct s ----ll-3O-3-..3-4----ll-3O-5-..1-0----ll-3O-7-..2-4----1-31-71-..21-----ll-44-0-..5-0----ll-48-7-..18-------5o-..o6-------31-..70-------40-..1-8 of which: North Sea 3.5 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.3 6.4 1.1 2.2 manufacturing 24.1 23.9 23.5 23.3 23.4 23.4 -1.3 -0.1 -0.3 other business output 67.5 67.2 67.8 68.6 70.9 75.3 0.2 1.5 1.2 public services 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.5 15.2 -0.4 0.1 -0.0 Net income from abroad -0.6 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.8 Terms of trade effect 3.8 4.3 5.1 4.4 5.6 7.5 National income 113.6 ll3. 8 ll5. 0 115.1 119.1 124.8 0.6 1.2 1.0 Employment and unemployment (millions) Public services Manufacturing Other employment 5.1 6.0 10.4 5.0 5.7 10.4 5.0 5.5 10.4 5.0 5.3 10.4 5.2 5.0 10.4 5.0 4.5 10.4 -0.5 -5.0 -0.1 0.0 -2.6 -0.0 -0.1 -3.1 -0.0 Total employment 21.5 21.1 20.9 20.7 20.6 20.0 -1.5 -0.6 -0.8 Unemployment 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.5 Financial balances (£ billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Private sector surplus 7.7 5.7 3.5 3.2 4.4 3.3 Public sector deficit 5.2 4.9 4.2 3.6 4.4 3.1 C--u-r-r-e-n-t-b--a-l -o--f-p-a-y-m--e-n-t-s-------2-.5-------0-.7-------0--.8-------0--.4-------0--.0-------0-.2------------------------- Costs and prices (% increase over previous year) Real wage settlements Money wage settlements Average money earnings Consumer prices Post-tax real earnings -4.2 -2.1 -1.7 0.1 0.2 0.1 -1.9 0.1 -0.4 9.3 7.8 5.3 7.8 5.3 3. 7 6.5 5.3 5.6 14.9 10.6 8.6 8.6 8.1 5.9 9.6 7.5 7.9 10.9 8.5 6.2 7.9 5.5 3.7 7.4 5.4 5.8 1.3 1.3 2.0 0.6 3.2 2.4 1.7 2.2 2.1 (Indices, 1975=100) Weighted exchange rate Export competitiveness 94.9 90.2 90.2 81.1 79.5 79.5 132. 9 130.6 132.3 122.4 123.6 120.7 -2.5 -0.2 -1.8 -1.3 -1.9 -1.1 52 Table A7 Base Projection Public sector accounts, balance of payments and North Sea 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 growth rates (% pa) 1990 1981-83 1983-90 1981-90 Public sector accounts (£ billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power Net indirect taxes 16.8 16.8 17.2 17.2 17.8 18.9 1.2 1.3 1.3 Direct tax & NI contribs 22.5 22.8 23.0 22.7 22.3 23.2 0.9 0.2 0.3 North Sea tax revenue 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.9 4.8 Property income ------7-.2-------7-.5-------7-.7-------7-.7-------8-.3-------9-.0-------3-.1-------2-.3-------2-.-5 Total receipts 49.2 50.0 50.9 51.2 52.3 55.9 1.7 1.4 1.4 Exp on goods & services 31.7 32.2 32.6 32.9 35.2 37.0 1.3 1.8 1.7 Grants 16.2 16.8 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.7 3.1 0.5 1.0 Debt interest -----6--.5-------6-.0-------5-.3-------4-.7-------4-.1-------4-.3-------9--.7--------3-.1--------4-.6- Total outlays 54. 4 54.9 55.1 54.8 56.7 59.0 0.6 1.0 0.9 Financial deficit Borrowing requirement 5.2 4.9 4.2 3.6 4.4 3.1 4.9 4.4 3.7 3.8 4.6 3.3 Balance of payments (£ billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Non-oil exports food & raw materials manufactures services total 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.5 3.2 4.4 4.2 18.7 18.3 18.1 18.6 20.0 23.2 -1.8 3.6 2.4 ------8-.5-------8-.1-------7-.9-------8-.2-------9-.0------1-0-.-9-------3-.4-------4-.7-------2-.-9 30.3 29.6 29.3 30.2 32.7 38.6 -1.7 4.0 2.7 Non-oil imports food & raw materials manufactures services 4. 7 4.8 4.7 5.0 4.9 4.9 0.1 0.7 0.5 16.8 18.8 20.4 21.7 24.0 30.2 10.2 5.7 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.8 7.3 0.9 1.4 1.3 total 28.0 30.1 31.8 33.2 35.6 42.5 6.4 4.2 4.7 Non-oil trade balance 2.3 -0.6 -2.5 -3.0 -3.0 -3.9 Balance on oil 1.1 1.9 2.3 3.1 3.5 5.1 Net income from abroad ------0--.6-------0--.5-------0--.6-------0--.5--------0-.6--------0-.9------------------------- Current account 2.7 0.8 -0.8 -0.4 -0.0 0.3 North Sea account (£ billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Value of sales ------6-.7-------6-.9-------7-.1-------8-.3-------8-.-9-----1-1-.-3------2-.-5------6-.-9------5-.-9 Operating costs 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 9.0 3.3 4.5 UK tax revenue 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.9 4.2 5.4 7.3 7.1 7.1 UK post-tax profits 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.7 -7.5 9.0 5.1 Post-tax profits abroad 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.6 8.0 3.6 4.6 53 Table AS Spontaneous Recovery Expenditure, output, employment and prices growth rates (% pal ----------------------------1-9-8-1------19-8-2------1-9-83------1-9-84------1-9-8-6-----1-9-9-0--1-9-8-1--8--3--1-9-8-3---9-0--1-9-8-1---9-0 Expenditure, output and income (£ billion, at 1975 market prices) Consumers' expenditure 71.6 71.3 74.1 75. 2 81.2 96.4 1.8 3.8 3.4 Public consumption 24.4 24.8 24.9 25.4 27.2 28.6 1.0 2.0 1.8 Private fixed investment 13.2 12.9 12.4 12.6 12.2 13.7 -3.4 1.5 0.4 Public fixed investment 5.9 6.4 6.9 7.6 9.5 13.5 8.6 9.9 9.6 Stoc kbuild ing -4.0 -0.3 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.6 Exports of goods & servs 32.5 33.2 34.7 37.4 44.4 67.0 3.4 9.8 8.4 Impor Gross ts d of goods omestic p r & o serv duct s ----n-3o-3.-.3-4----ll-32-6.-.3-0----ll-44-0-..1-8----ll-48-1-..6-3----1-42-97-..33-----1-47-28-..89-------92-..70-------83-..98-------39-..1-4 of which: North Sea 3. 5 3.9 4.0 4. 2 4. 2 4.3 6.4 1.1 2. 2 manufacturing 24.1 24.7 25.5 26.4 29.3 37.2 2.8 5.6 4.9 other business output 67.5 68.1 70.0 72.1 77.5 90.5 1.9 3.7 3.3 public services 15.· 2 15.3 15.3 15.5 16.4 16.8 0.3 1.4 1.1 Net income from abroad -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 1.9 Terms of trade effect 3.8 4.3 5.2 4.3 5.5 7.4 National income ll3. 6 ll5. 9 ll9. 6 122.4 132.9 158. 3 2.6 4.1 3.7 Employment and unemployment (millions) Public services Manufacturing Other employment 5.1 6.0 10.4 5.1 5.8 10.4 5.1 5.6 10.5 5.2 5.6 10.6 5.4 5.6 10.7 5.6 5.9 11.0 0.2 -3.4 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.6 -0.3 0.6 0.6 Total employment 21.5 21.3 21.2 21.3 21.8 22.4 -0. 7 0.8 0.5 Unemployment 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.0 2.7 Financial balances (£ billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Private sector surplus Public sector deficit Current bal of payments 7.7 5.9 3. 5 3.6 5.7 7.4 5.2 5.1 4.0 3.7 5.0 3.9 2.5 0.8 -0.6 -0.1 0.7 3.5 Costs and prices {% increase over previous year) Real wage settlements Money wage settlements Average money earnings Consumer prices Post-tax real earnings -4.2 -1.8 -1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 -1.4 1.2 0.7 9.3 7.4 5.2 8.1 6.2 5.4 6.3 6.4 6.4 14. 9 10.7 8.9 9.2 9.5 8.0 9.8 8.9 9.1 10.9 7.9 5.7 7.8 5.7 4.4 6.8 5.7 5.9 1.3 2. 5 3.0 1.8 4. 7 3. 9 2. 7 3. 7 3. 5 (Indices, 1975=100) Weighted exchange rate 94.9 90.2 90.2 81.1 79.5 79.5 -2.5 -1.8 -1.9 E--x-p-o-r-t-c--o-m-p--e-ti-t-iv-e-n--e-s-s------1-3-2-.9----1--3-0-.4-----1-3-2-.0-----1-2-2-.-5----1-2-5-.-1----1-2-7-.-4-------0-.3--------0-.5--------0-.5- 54 Table A9 Spontaneous Recovery Public sector accounts, balance of payments and North Sea 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 growth rates (% pa) 1990 1981-83 1983-90 1981-90 Public sector accounts (£ billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power Net indirect taxes 16.8 17.1 17.8 18.2 19.8 23.8 3.1 4.2 3.9 Direct tax & NI contribs 22.5 22.8 23.3 23.2 23.2 25.7 1.7 1.4 1.5 North Sea tax revenue 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.9 4.7 Property income ------7-.2-------7-.7-------8-.2-------8-.4-------9-.5------1-1-.7-------6-.2-------5-.3-------5-.-5 Total receipts 49.2 50.6 52.4 53.4 56.3 65. 9 3.2 3.3 3.3 Exp on goods & services 31.7 33.0 34.1 35.6 40.6 49.3 3.7 5.4 5.0 Grants 16.2 16.7 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.1 2.5 -0.8 -0.1 Debt interest -----6--.5------6--.0-------5-.3-------4-.6-------4-.2-------4-.5-------9--.8--------2-.4--------4-.1- Total outlays 54.4 55.7 56.4 57.0 61.4 69.8 1.8 3.1 2.8 Financial deficit Borrowing requirement 5.2 5.1 4.0 3.7 5.0 3.9 4.9 4.6 3.5 3.9 5.2 4.1 Balance of payments (£ billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Non-oil exports food & raw materials manufactures services total 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.6 4.1 5.4 4.9 6.8 6.4 18.7 19.0 19.8 21.2 25.0 37.1 2.7 9.4 7.9 ------8-.5-------8-.6-------9-.0------1-0-.0------1-2-.6------2-2-.2-------3-.3------1-3-.-7-----1-1-.-3 30.3 30.8 32.2 34.8 41.7 64.6 3.1 10.5 8.8 Non-oil imports food & raw materials manufactures services total 4. 7 16.8 6.5 4.8 19.5 6.7 4.8 22.2 7.0 5.1 24. 3 7.1 5.0 29.2 7.8 5.2 45.4 10.2 1.0 14.8 3.5 1.1 10.8 5.5 1.1 11.7 5.1 -------------------------------------~---------------------------------- 28.0 31.0 34.0 36.5 42.1 60.8 10.0 8.7 9.0 Non-oil trade balance 2.3 -0.2 -1.7 -1.7 -0.4 3.8 Balance on oil 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.0 -2.0 Net income from abroad ------0--.6-------0--.4-------0--.4-------0--.2-------0-.2-------2-.1------------------------- Current account 2.7 0.9 -0.6 -0.1 0.8 3.9 North Sea account (£ billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Value of sales 6.7 6.9 7.1 8.3 8.8 11.0 2.5 6.4 5.6 Operating costs UK tax revenue UK post-tax profits Post-tax profits abroad 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 8.9 3.6 4.8 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.9 4.2 5.2 7.2 6.6 6.7 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.6 -7.5 8.5 4.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.5 7.9 3.1 4.2 55 Table AlO A Reflation Programme starting in 1984 Expenditure, output, employment and prices 1981 1983 1984 1985 1986 growth rates (% pa) 1990 1983-86 1986-90 1981-90 Expenditure, output and income (£ billion, at 1975 market prices) Consumers' expenditure 71.6 72.9 75.5 78.0 82.7 90.5 4.3 2.3 2.6 Public consumption 24.4 24.6 25.0 26.1 26.6 29.1 2.6 2.3 1.9 Private fixed investment 13.2 11.9 11.8 12.6 12.6 12.9 1.8 0.6 -0.3 Public fixed investment 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.5 7.5 2.6 3.8 2.7 Stockbuilding -4.0 0.4 1.3 2.6 2.4 0.2 Exports of goods & servs 32. 5 31.8 32.9 34.8 36.8 43.2 4.9 4.1 3.2 Imports of goods & servs 33.3 37.2 38.6 40.9 43.7 52.4 5.5 4.7 5.2 Gross domestic product 110.4 110.4 113.8 119.5 123.8 130.9 3.9 1.4 1.9 of which: North Sea 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 1.7 0.6 2.2 manufacturing 24.1 23. 5 24.4 26.1 27.5 27.7 5.4 0.2 1.5 other business output 67.5 67.8 69.9 72.9 75.6 80. 7 3.7 1.6 2.0 public services 15.2 15.1 15.4 16.2 16.5 18.2 3.0 2.5 2.0 Net income from abroad -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 Terms of trade effect 3.8 5.1 4.4 3.4 3.8 6.2 National income 113.6 115.0 117.5 122.0 126.7 136.1 3.3 1.8 2.0 Employment and unemployment (millions) Public services Manufacturing Other employment 5.1 6.0 10.4 5.0 5.5 10.4 5.1 5.4 10.4 5.4 5.4 10.5 5.5 5.4 10.6 6.1 5.0 10.6 3.0 -0.2 0.5 2.5 -1.8 0.1 2.0 -2.0 0.2 Total employment 21.5 20.9 20.9 21.3 21.5 21.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 Unemployment 2.5 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.3 Financial balances (£ billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Private sector surplus Public sector deficit Current bal of payments 7.7 3.5 2.9 2.0 2.4 4.1 5.2 4.2 4.9 5.5 6.4 8.1 2.5 -0.8 -2.0 -3.5 -4.0 -4.0 Costs and prices (% increase over previous year) Real wage settlements Money wage settlements Average money earnings Consumer prices Post-tax real earnings -4.2 9.3 14.9 10.9 1.3 -1.7 5.3 8.6 6.2 2.0 -2.1 2.2 6.1 3.8 2. 2 2.9 5.2 0.6 8.5 11.2 10.4 8.2 12.5 12.3 6.0 5.6 9.9 2.0 6.6 2.1 1.9 1.1 0.7 7.2 9.9 8.3 8.9 12.1 10.5 5.1 9.0 7.3 3.6 2.9 2.8 (Indices, 1975=100) Weighted exchange rate Export competitiveness 94.9 90.2 81.1 73.0 71.6 64.7 132.9 132.3 121.1 112.4 113.9 118.0 -7.4 -4.9 -2.5 0.9 -4.2 -1.3 56 Table All A Reflation Programme starting in 1984 Public sector accounts, balance of payments and North Sea 1981 1983 1984 1985 1986 growth rates (% pa) 1990 1983-86 1986-90 1981-90 Public sector accounts (£ billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power Net indirect taxes 16.8 17.2 16.2 16.0 14.8 16.7 -4.9 3.0 -0.1 Direct tax & NI contribs 22.5 23.0 23.3 24.1 25.4 27.5 3.4 2.0 2.2 North Sea tax revenue 2.6 3.0 3.7 4.2 4.4 5.1 Property income -----7--.2-------7-.7-------8-.3-------9-.0-------9-.6-------9-.7-------7-.6-------0-.3-------3-.3- Total receipts 49.2 50.9 51.5 53.3 54.2 59.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 Exp on goods & services 31.7 32.6 33.7 35.6 37.6 44.0 4.8 4.0 3.7 Grants 16.2 17.2 18.2 18.9 18.7 17.6 2.9 -1.5 0.9 Debt interest -----6--.5-------5-.3-------4-.5-------4-.3-------4-.3-------5-.6--------6-.6-------6-.7--------1-.6- Total outlays 54.4 55.1 56.4 58.9 60.6 67.1 3.2 2.6 2.4 Financial deficit Sorrowing requirement 5.2 4.2 4.9 5.5 6.4 8.1 4.9 3.7 5.1 5.7 6.6 8.3 Balance of payments (£ billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Non-oil exports food & raw materials manufactures services total 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.5 3.8 5.0 4.2 18.7 18.1 18.6 19.7 20.8 24.3 4.8 3.9 2.9 ------8-.5-------7-.9-------8-.2-------8-.9-------9-.5------1-1-.7-------6-.5-------5-.-2------3-.-6 30.3 29.3 30. 2 32.1 34.0 40.5 5.2 4.4 3.3 Non-oil imports food & raw materials manufactures services total 4.7 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.2 3.7 -0.4 1.1 16.8 20.4 22.6 25.0 26.6 33.3 9.2 5~ 8 7.9 ------6-.5-------6-.6-------6-.7-------6-.8-------7-.1-------8-.0-------2-.5-------3-.0-------2-.-4 28.0 31.8 34.4 37.1 39.0 46.5 7.0 4.5 5.8 Non-oil trade balance 2.3 -2.5 -4.1 -5.0 -5.0 -6.1 Balance on oil 1.1 2.3 2.7 2.3 1.8 2.8 Net income from abroad ------0--.6-------0--.6-------0--.7-------0--.8-------0--.9-------1--.1------------------------- Current account 2.7 -0.8 -2.1 -3.6 -4.1 -4.3 North Sea account (£ billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Value of sales 6.7 7.1 8.3 9.0 9.3 11.5 9.6 5.5 6.2 Operating costs UK tax revenue UK post-tax profits Post-tax profits abroad 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 5.1 4.5 2.9 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.5 5.5 10.0 5.5 7.4 2.4 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.8 14.7 5.5 5.4 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.8 5.5 4.8 57 Table Al2 A Labour Strategy starting in 1984 Expenditure, output, employment and prices growth rates (% pal -----------------------------19-8-1------19-8-3------1-98-4------19-8-5------1-9-8-6-----1-9-9-0--1-9-8-3--8--6--1-9-8-6--9--0--1-9-8-1---9-0 Expenditure, output and income (£ billion, at 1975 market prices) Consumers' expenditure 71.6 72.9 74.8 77.9 81.2 90.6 3.7 2.8 2.6 Public consumption 24.4 24.6 25.4 26.5 27.2 29.2 3.4 1.8 2.0 Private fixed investment 13.2 11.9 12.7 15.5 15.8 19.1 9.8 4.8 4.1 Public fixed investment 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.8 7.1 8.6 6.0 5.0 4.3 Stockbuilding -4.0 0.4 1.3 2.9 2.5 1.9 Exports of goods & servs 32. 5 31.8 30.9 30.4 31.5 3 7.1 -0.4 4.2 1.5 Imports of goods & servs-----3-3-.3------3-7-.2------3-7-.1------3-9-.4------4-0-.1------4-2-.1-------2-.6-------1-.2-------2-.-6 Gross domestic product 110.4 110.4 114.2 120.6 125.1 144.4 4.3 3.6 3.0 of which: North sea 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 1.7 0.6 2.2 manufacturing 24.1 23.5 24.4 26.5 27.9 33.9 5.9 5.0 3.8 other business output 67.5 67.8 69.9 73.4 76.0 87.3 3.9 3.5 2.9 public services 15.2 15.1 15.7 16.5 17.1 18.9 4.1 2.6 2.4 Net income from abroad -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 Terms of trade effect 3.8 5.1 5.4 5.2 4.9 3.6 National income 113.6 115.0 119.2 125.2 129.6 147.2 4.1 3.2 2.9 Employment and unemployment (millions) Public services Manufacturing Other employment 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.7 6.4 4.3 2.7 2.5 6.0 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 0.1 0.5 -0.9 10.4 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.7 1.9 1.5 1.3 Total employment 21.5 20.9 21.2 21.8 22.2 23.6 2.0 1.6 1.0 Unemployment 2.5 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.7 1.9 Financial balances (£ billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Private sector surplus 7.7 3.5 2.9 2.9 3.5 6.7 Public sector deficit 5.2 4.2 4.1 7.2 7.7 8.9 C--u-r-r-e-n-t-b--a-l -o--f-p-a-y-m--e-n-t-s-------2-.5-------0--.8-------1--.1-------4--.3-------4--.2-------2--.2------------------------- Costs and prices (% increase over previous year) Real wage settlements Money wage settlements Average money earnings Consumer prices Post-tax real earnings -4.2 9.3 14.9 10.9 1.3 -1.7 5.3 8.6 6.2 2.0 0.6 2.3 2.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 1.3 6.5 9.4 11.2 20.2 9.0 15.9 11.5 8.1 10.7 12.8 21.4 10.5 17.5 13.3 5.7 7.4 8.7 18.4 7.2 13.7 10.1 2.2 3.1 3.8 2.5 3.0 3.3 2.9 (Indices, 1975=100) Weighted exchange rate Export competitiveness 94.9 90.2 84.6 78.7 72.9 45.7 132.9 132.3 128.6 125.4 122.6 114.3 -6.9 -11.0 -2.5 -1.7 -7.8 -1.7 58 Table Al3 A Labour Strategy starting in 1984 Public sector accounts, balance of payments and North Sea 1981 1983 1984 1985 1986 growth rates (% pa) 1990 1983-86 1986-90 1981-90 Public sector accounts (£ billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power Net indirect taxes 16.8 17.2 17.5 13.9 13.6 13.0 -7.6 -1.1 -2.8 Direct tax & NI contribs 22.5 23.0 24.3 27.9 29.0 33.4 8.1 3.6 4.5 North Sea tax revenue 2.6 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.3 6.1 Property income ------7-.2-------7-.7-------7-.8-------8-.6-------8-.9-------9-.9-------5-.0-------2-.-6------3-.-5 Total receipts 49.2 50.9 53.1 54.4 55.8 62.4 3.1 2.8 2.7 Exp on goods & services 31.7 32.6 34.2 36.8 38.7 46.1 5.9 4.4 4.2 Grants 16.2 17.2 18.3 20.2 20.1 19.0 5.4 -1.4 1.8 Debt interest ------6-.5-------5-.3-------4-.6-------4-.5-------4-.7-------6-.3--------3-.8-------7-.3--------0-.4- Total outlays 54.4 55.1 57.2 61.5 63.5 71.3 4.9 2.9 3.0 Financial deficit Borrowing requirement 5.2 4.2 4.1 7.2 7.7 8.9 4.9 3.7 4.2 7.3 7.9 9.1 Balance of payments (£ billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Non-oil exports food & raw materials manufactures services total 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 4.2 2.6 4.3 3.5 18.7 18.1 17.4 17.1 17.6 20.7 -0.8 4.1 1.1 ------8-.5-------7-.9-------7-.4-------7-.1-------7-.4-------9-.2--------2-.0-------5-.-5------0-.-9 30.3 29.3 28.2 27.6 28.6 34.1 -0.8 4.5 1.3 Non-oil imports food & raw materials manufactures services total 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.7 2.9 2.4 2.0 16.8 20.4 20.9 22.4 22.8 23.8 3.8 1.1 4.0 ------6-.5-------6-.6-------5-.9-------6-.0-------6-.0-------5-.6--------3-.5--------1-.6--------1-.7- 28.0 31.8 31.6 33.4 33.9 35.1 2.2 0.8 2.5 Non-oil trade balance 2.3 -2.5 -3.4 -5.8 -5.3 -0.9 Balance on oil 1.1 2.3 2.6 2.0 1.6 -0.4 Net income from abroad ------0--.6-------0--.6-------0--.4-------0--.6--------0-.5--------0-.7------------------------- Current account 2.7 -0.8 -1.2 -4.4 -4.3 -2.1 North Sea account (£ billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Value of sales 6.7 7.1 8.0 8.4 9.0 11.9 8.2 7.4 6.6 Operating costs UK tax revenue UK post-tax profits Post-tax profits abroad 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 -8.5 1.5 -0.4 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.1 4.3 5.8 9.1 7.6 8.0 2.4 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.0 4.0 13.8 7.7 6.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.0 7.7 5.5 59 Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Statistical Appendix Historical data and projections for the UK economy Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Members of the CEPG Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Cambridge Economic Policy Review Volume 8 No 1, pages 44 - 59 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource April 1982