https://cpes.org.uk/om/files/original/3c1bb146bece333a8a57d9a0c97e0390.pdf f5afe2f237d466b8c0cadcd1b6874e8c Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Cambridge Economic Policy Review Volume 6 No 3 Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Text Any textual data included in the document Appendix A Historical data and projections This Appendix defines the main projections quoted in the text and tabulates results for 1985, with historical figures for comparison. The accounting concepts and data sources are those described on p.ll (see note overleafon national income concepts). The model used to obtain the projections was the one defined on p.14 supplemented (except for the ex ante projection) by the expenditure adjustment processes set out in Chapter 2 (see p.23-5 and Table 2.1 ). Complete historical series were assembled for the years 1961-79 but the extrapolation of most trends in inexact equations and of exogenous variables- population, manufactured import ratios and export shares - was fitted to data for 1973-78 since many figures for 1979 were provisional. Trends in fuel supply equations were extrapolated in the light ofiEA projections. A small number of extrapolated export shares and import ratios appeared implausible, and were modified accordingly. Projections were calculated year by year for 1980-85 but only the 1985 results have been used in the text. Definition of projections Except where noted, the following assumptions about spending objectives and financial targets were imposed on all projections: The Tables which follow show summary outcomes for each bloc(A.l ), energy supply ariddemand(A.2) and manufactured import ratios and export shares (A.3). PI Ex ante projection (Chapter 1) Zero financial adjustment in all blocs, implying full achievement of spending objectives. P2 Base projection (Chapter 2) Spending adjustment as tabulated below. P2 Energy saving in developed blocs (Chapter 3) Cumulative reduction in trend term of energy demand equations for USA, Western Europe, Japan and Other Developed by 3% per year as compared with base projection. P4 General preferences in favour of developing blocs (GSP) (Chapter 3) Manufactured export shares of developing blocs (Latin America, Africa, Asia, Middle East) to all destinations rising each year by up to 8% ofthe share in the preceding year.* Target growth of per capita spending (%per year) Target trade balance ($1975 bn) Strength of financial adjustment (see Table 2.1) USA Western Europe Japan Other developed Latin America Africa Asia Middle East Centrally planned 2.5 3.0 4.0 3.0 4.5 6.0 6.5 4.5 5.0 0 -5 +5 0 -10 -5 -10 (+25) 0 strong strong normal normal normal normal normal zero very strong *Developing bloc shares were increased by 8% and all shares (including those of other blocs) were then scaled such that their sum in each market remained unity. 43 P5 US protection with unchanged non-energy deficit (Chapter 3) The financial adjustment process for the USA was altered so that spending objectives were fully achieved while the manufactured import ratio was adjusted to achieve the same nonenergy trade deficit for the USA as in the base projection. (This implied an increase in the US financial deficit equal to the increased cost of its net energy imports.) Note on national income accounting concepts (see p.ll) To simplify the model we have used approximate measures of the real spending and real income of each bloc. (a) Real spending, H, is defined as the volume of GDP, Q, less the 'volume' balance on commodity trade. The precise relationship between this measure and the usual national accounts definition is given by the following identity: Real spending, H plus Net exports of services less Difference between imports of goods on shipment basis and on arrivals basis less Specific terms of trade gains not due to changes in world prices of food and raw materials and energy relative to manufactures equals Real domestic spending (national accounts definition) (b) Real income, Y, is defined as the volume of GDP, Q, adjusted for 'world' terms of trade effects. It is related to the national accounts definition ofthe real value of GNP as follows: Real income, Y plus Net income from abroad plus Specific terms of trade gains as above equals GNP iii terms ofdomestic purchasing power 44 Table A.l Past and projected trade and GDP by bloc 1964 1973 World exports of manufactures ($1975 billion) 213 513 World GDP (excl. China) ($1975 billion) 3518 5633 World population (excl. China) (millions) 2482 2947 World prices relative to manufactures (1975 = 100) Food and raw materials 87.9 101.2 Energy 48.3 46.4 1978 Pl Ex ante Alternative projections for 1985 P2 Base projection P3 Energy saving P4 PS GSP us protection 673 6609 3250 1096 9086 3741 1003 8315 3741 1048 8725 3741 1000 8279 3741 1010 8648 3741 99.2 108.9 91.8 294.4 95.7 225.7 102.6 192.5 95.2 223.0 101.3 253.6 USA Trade balance ($1975 billion) Exports of manufactures Imports of manufactures Net food and raw materials Net energy Total GDP volume (1975 = 100) Real income from GDP ($1975 billion) Domestic spending ($1975 billion) Population (millions) Spending per capita ($1975 per person) 37 20 3 -2 64 62 11 -11 17 1 72.0 1101 1083 102.0 1570 1569 192 5641 210 7469 80 81 12 - 32 - 21 116.0 1774 1795 218 8234 130 124 32 - 81 - 44 145.7 2174 2217 230 9638 120 111 32 - 53 - 12 131.0 1968 1980 230 8607 125 121 28 - 33 -2 116 110 32 - 51 -13 122 104 22 - 90 - so 142.4 2158 2160 129.9 1953 1966 145.6 2168 2217 230 9388 230 8546 230 9638 Western Europe Trade balance ($1975 billion) Exports of manufactures Imports of manufactures Net food and raw materials Net energy Total GDP volume (1975 = 100) Real income from GDP ($1975 billion) Domestic spending ($1975 billion) Population (millions) Spending per capita ($1975 per person) 114 92 - 26 - 10 282 236 - 31 - 27 - 14 - 12 66.0 1145 1158 99.0 1727 1739 322 3598 339 5131 364 288 - 27 - 48 110.0 1889 1888 347 5440 587 468 - 41 -148 - 70 143.0 2348 2419 359 6736 538 420 - 28 -lOS - 15 129.0 2153 2168 359 6038 566 454 - 38 - 79 523 413 - 26 -101 543 422 - 27 -110 - 5 - 17 - 14 138.9 2341 2346 126.6 2115 2132 130.1 2162 2177 359 6534 359 5938 359 6063 45 Table A.l Past and projected trade and GDP by bloc (continued) 1964 1973 1978 P1 Ex ante Alternative projections for 1985 P2 P3 P4 Base Energy projection saving GSP P5 us protection Japan Trade balance ($1975 billion) Exports of manufactures Imports of manufactures Net food and raw materials Net energy 13 4 -7 -2 48 15 - 19 - 10 76 14 - 16 - 23 131 26 - 22 - 84 117 26 - 21 - 69 122 29 - 27 -56 113 26 - 20 - 67 117 25 - 20 - 73 Total 0 4 23 - 1 2 11 0 - 1 GDP volume (1975 = 100) Real income from GDP ($1975 billion) Domestic spending ($1975 billion) 43.0 219 219 99.0 509 505 118.0 595 572 177.6 834 836 172.0 826 825 187.8 915 904 168.6 811 811 169.1 805 805 Population (millions) Spending per capits ($1975 per person) 98 2233 109 4632 115 4974 124 6747 124 6660 124 7301 124 6546 124 6504 Other developed Trade balance ($1975 billion) Exports of manufactures Imports of manufactures Net food and raw materials Net energy Total GDP volume (1975 = 100) Real income from GDP ($1975 billion) Domestic spending ($1975 billion) Population (millions) Spending per capita ($1975 per person) 10 22 12 -1 -1 57.7 186 187 53 3531 27 45 19 0 94.8 306 305 66 4624 31 47 16 -1 0 109.9 354 355 72 4930 48 63 16 - 10 -8 149.1 476 484 83 5858 44 57 14 -8 -7 135.2 431 438 83 5304 47 61 14 -4 41 56 14 -7 42 58 16 -6 -3 -8 -6 144.9 466 469 132.9 424 432 137.7 440 447 83 5679 83 5226 83 5406 Latin America Trade balance ($1975 billion) Exports of manufactures Imports of manufactures Net food and raw materials Net energy Total GDP volume (1975 = 100) Real income from GDP ($1975 billion) Domestic spending ($1975 billion) Population (millions) Spending per capita ($1975 per person) 39 16 30 11 14 34 1 -4 51.0 177 177 90.0 317 321 241 307 733 1047 11 40 16 4 -9 114.0 407 416 351 1185 16 64 22 26 0 182.9 672 673 424 1585 15 61 16 14 - 16 171.8 621 637 424 1501 15 23 15 60 63 63 21 14 18 7 11 18 - 17 - 14 -13 170.2 612 628 178.6 643 657 178.4 648 661 424 1481 424 1548 424 1558 46 Table A.l Past and projected trade and GDP by bloc (continued) 1964 1973 1978 Pl Ex ante Alternative projections for 1985 P2 Base projection P3 Energy saving P4 GSP P5 us protection Africa Trade balance ($19 75 billion) Exports of manufactures Imports of manufactures Net food and raw materials Net energy Total GDP volume (1975 = 100) Real income from GDP ($1975 billion) Domestic spending ($1975 billion) Population (millions) Spending per capita ($1975 per person) 3 11 6 2 -1 57.0 77 78 284 274 4 22 6 11 0 90.0 113 113 357 316 3 36 2 19 -12 116.0 160 172 409 420 3 60 0 90 33 184.4 317 283 496 572 3 64 -4 60 -6 190.3 299 305 496 615 3 59 -1 49 7 66 -5 59 3 70 -5 69 -8 -5 -3 177.8 272 280 196.7 307 312 204.5 327 330 496 496 496 564 629 665 Asia Trade balance ($1975 billion) Exports of manufactures Imports of manufactures Net food and raw materials Net energy Total GDP volume (1975 = 100) Real income (from GDP ($1975 billion) Domestic spending ($1975 billion) Population (millions) Spending per capita ($1975 per person) 6 17 4 0 -6 58.1 141 148 855 173 23 32 4 0 -5 89.3 218 223 1069 209 39 49 5 -1 -6 115.9 283 289 1215 238 86 106 10 - 33 - 44 205.3 481 524 1451 361 78 88 6 - 18 - 22 173.8 414 436 1451 301 82 91 11 - 22 87 91 5 - 21 77 90 10 - 18 - 21 - 21 - 21 179.5 428 448 180.8 430 450 178.2 425 446 1451 309 1451 310 1451 307 Middle East Trade balance ($1975 billion) Exports of manufactures Imports of manufactures Net food and raw materials Net energy Total GDP volume (1975 = 100) Real income from GDP ($1975 billion) Domestic spending ($1975 billion) Population (millions) Spending per capita ($1975 per person) 02 6 17 -1 0 9 31 3 16 42.0 91.0 67 130 63 114 87 111 728 1030 3 48 -4 74 24 115.0 203 179 127 1406 3 89 -6 250 157 145.3 429 271 153 1774 3 89 -7 177 84 140.9 355 271 153 1774 3 89 -7 143 6 89 -7 174 3 89 -7 206 51 84 113 139.3 322 271 142.6 356 271 142.8 384 271 153 1774 153 1774 153 1774 47 ∑ Table A.l. Past and projected trade and GDP by bloc (continued) 1964 1973 1978 P1 Ex ante Alternative projections for 1985 P2 Base projection P3 Energy saving P4 GSP P5 us protection Centrally planneda Trade balance ($197 5 billion) Exports of manufactures Imports of manufactures Net food and raw materials Net energy 27 54 65 93 85 85 83 87 25 55 69 95 87 84 86 89 32 4 10 7 178 23 9 10 3 645 Total 00 1 23 6 765 GDPb volume (1975 = 100) Real income from GDP ($1975 billion) Domestic spending ($1975 billion) 49.0 405 405 90.0 743 743 114.0 944 944 164.4 1355 1378 150.3 1248 1254 146.4 1211 1218 149.4 1241 1248 155.1 1289 1293 Population (millions) Spending per capita ($1975 per person) 350 1156 379 1960 396 2383 422 3270 422 2976 422 2889 422 2960 422 3068 acentrally planned trade includes China and the centrally planned economies of Asia. GDP, income, spending and population exclude China and the centrally planned economies of Asia. bEstimates of GDP, income and spending are net material product, which excludes some services, and covers about% of GDP. Table A.2. Past and projected energy supply and consumption 1964 1973 1978 Energy supply USA Western Europe Japan Other developed Latin America Africa Asia Middle East Centrally planned Energy consumption USA Western Europe Japan Other developed Latin America Africa Asia Middle East Centrally planned 1135 428 53 162 265 87 80 386 1085 1518 473 39 350 324 303 158 1089 1675 1231 793 139 196 129 28 90 47 1027 1821 1238 353 321 248 47 174 104 1624 1477 593 43 373 311 313 219 1108 2225 1858 1240 348 364 290 66 252 139 2105 (million tons, oil equivalents) Alternative projections for 1985 P1 Ex ante P2 Base projection P3 Energy saving 1712 784 83 465 507 507 355 1063 2967 1656 758 78 440 475 474 332 995 2918 1624 743 76 427 456 455 319 956 2889 2008 1415 399 483 410 104 498 167 2957 1901 1345 418 463 412 119 440 177 2852 1795 1260 396 429 422 113 469 184 2877 48 Table A.3. Import penetration and export shares in trade in manufactures 1964 Ratio of imports of manufactures to domestic spending USA Western Europe Japan Other developed Latin America Africa Asia Middle East Centrally planned 1.8 7.9 1.7 11.9 9.3 14.6 11.3 8.7 6.2 Export shares of USA by market USA Western Europe Japan Other developed Latin America Africa Asia Middle East Centrally planned 0.0 12.5 43.8 47.6 43.1 8.7 24.0 16.8 0.2 Export shares of Western Europe by market USA Western Europe Japan Other developed Latin America Africa Asia Middle East Centrally planned 44.3 75.6 35.5 39.2 36.3 64.4 28.1 56.6 18.8 Export shares of Japan by market USA Western Europe Japan Other developed Latin America Africa Asia Middle East Centrally planned 18.0 1.6 0.0 4.1 5.0 7.8 23.9 7.5 2.8 Export shares of Other Developed by market USA Western Europe Japan Other developed Latin America Africa Asia Middle East Centrally planned 24.1 2.9 7.8 3.9 3.3 4.7 1.7 2.7 0.1 1973 4.0 13.5 2.9 14.7 9.4 19.5 14.4 14.5 7.3 0.0 7.6 29.7 48.4 33.9 5.8 16.5 14.6 1.0 36.6 79.2 28.5 32.5 35.7 61.1 21.2 49.8 26.6 20.4 3.6 0.0 9.1 11.8 15.1 35.7 12.7 4.8 25.7 1.9 7.0 2.8 3.6 3.7 5.0 2.0 0.2 1978 4.5 15.3 2.5 13.3 9.5 21.1 16.9 27.1 7.3 0.0 7.1 28.1 49.9 35.3 6.7 14.5 15.2 1.1 31.0 79.4 29.5 27.7 32.9 65.8 24.8 49.2 29.8 24.7 4.0 0.0 10.1 12.8 11.2 36.9 16.0 7.5 23.5 1.5 9.9 2.7 3.9 2.2 3.7 1.7 0.5 (per cent) Base projection 1985 5.6 19.4 3.2 12.9 9.5 21.1 20.3 32.9 6.9 0.0 6.8 25.8 55.2 39.4 7.5 13.5 12.7 1.6 26.8 79.2 30.4 19.7 29.0 69.8 29.1 46.2 31.5 27.1 4.2 0.0 9.1 11.0 5.0 34.3 17.3 10.2 22.3 1.3 12.7 3.6 4.6 1.4 2.4 1.7 1.1 49 ∑ Table A.3. Import penetration and export shares in trade in manufactures (continued) 1964 Export shares of Latin America by market USA Western Europe Japan Other developed Latin America Africa Asia Middle East Centrally planned 5.3 1.2 1.3 0.1 4.4 0.1 1.0 0.2 0.1 Export shares of Africa by market USA Western Europe Japan Other developed Latin America Africa Asia Middle East Centrally planned 0.4 2.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 3.9 0.3 0.1 0.5 Export shares of Asia by market USA Western Europe Japan Other devleoped Latin America Africa Asia Middle East Centrally planned 7.3 1.1 0.1 3.8 2.1 2.9 9.6 5.1 0.4 Export shares of Middle East by market USA Western Europe Japan Other developed Latin America Africa Asia Middle East Centrally planned 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.1 Export shares of Centrally Planned by market USA Western Europe Japan Other developed Latin America Africa Asia Middle East Centrally planned 0.5 3.1 7.7 0.7 5.9 7.5 11.4 9.7 76.9 50 1973 4.7 0.9 4.0 0.6 8.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.2 2.8 0.1 0.5 2.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 11.4 2.1 21.1 4.2 0.9 2.6 13.7 4.4 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 3.7 0.1 0.8 3.4 6.4 2.0 5.2 8.7 6.9 12.3 65.4 1978 4.2 0.8 2.7 0.6 7.7 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 15.3 3.0 23.0 6.8 1.1 4.1 13.5 6.2 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 2.7 0.1 1.1 3.3 5.0 2.1 6.2 7.3 5.5 8.3 59.7 (per cent) Base projection 1985 4.0 0.6 1.9 0.3 7.1 1.9 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 17.6 4.5 24.7 9.2 3.3 6.4 14.3 9.6 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.1 0.1 1.5 3.0 3.3 2.9 5.6 7.0 5.7 9.2 54.3 ∑  Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Appendix A Historical data and projections Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Paul Atkinson Iain Begg Francis Cripps Michael Anyadike-Danes Graham Gudgin Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Cambridge Economic Policy Review Volume 6 No 3, pages 43 - 50 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource December 1980