https://cpes.org.uk/om/files/original/9cb2867376760df063d6a7f0a29084e2.pdf 2570fc9ae596364f92b530ff174a176d Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Cambridge Economic Policy Review Volume 7 No. 1 Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Text Any textual data included in the document Statistical Appendix Historical data and projections for the UK economy This Appendix presents historical data based on information available up to the end of February 1981, together with the results of four projections for 1981 onwards based on the CEPG model of the UK.* The tables show: AI - A4 Historical series for 1963-80 AS and A6 A base projection for 1981- 85 A7 and AS A projection for 1981-85 with pre-budget fiscal policy A9 andAlO A projection for 1981-85 with reflation from 1981 All and A12 A projection for 1981-85 with devaluation from 1981 Each projection illustrates the effects of pursuing a different set of fiscal and exchange rate policies on the same set of external assumptions. These common assumptions are as follows:- (% increase over previous year) Volume index GrowthofUK manufacturing export markets 198119821983 19841985 37 777 Prices denominated in weighted-average foreign currency World exports of manufactures 77 777 UK imports of oil 7 7 10 10 10 UK imports of basic materials 56 777 UK imports of food from nonEEC countries 66 777 Basic CAP prices 87 777 Policy assumptions Base projection Public current expenditure on goods and services grows by 0.5% in 1981 and is then constant in real terms. Public sector investment is cut by 15% in volume terms between 1980 and 1985. The real tax burden increases, as announced in the budget, *A full account of the current version of the model will be available in May 1981 in a revised edition of the technical manual (Technical Manual on the CEPG Model of the UK, by K. J. Coutts, T. F. Cripps and M. K. Anyadike-Danes, seventh edition) from the Department of Applied Economics, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge, CB3 9DE, UK, price £4.50. and the nominal exchange rate index remains unchanged at an annual average level of 98 (1975=100). No targets are specified for either the PSBR or the balance of payments. Pre-budgetfiscal policy Public expenditure plans and tax rates are those in force or envisaged before the budget. Tax rates are fully indexed for the effects of inflation from 1981 onwards. The nominal exchange rate falls by 8% per annum. Reflation Fiscal policy is relaxed to expand business output by 1% in 1982,2% in 1983 and 1984 and 3% in 1985, in order to stabilise unemployment at 2h million. The nominal exchange rate falls by 8% per annum. Devaluation Sterling is devalued from 1981 onwards in order to restore export competitiveness to its 1975 level by 1984 (which requires depreciations of between 10% and 17% per annum between 1981 and 1985). Fiscal policy maintains an identical current account balance to that of the pre-budget projection. Notes and definitions The series presented here generally conform with official statistics but employ certain additional concepts not found in the national income accounts. In particular, production is classified into 'North Sea', 'public services' and 'other domestic output', and private disposable income is divided between 'wages and salaries', 'welfare benefits' and 'other private income' (the last item includes private rents and income from selfemployment as well as company profits, interest, etc.). Most series are presented in terms of 1975 purchasing power. Series 'at 1975 domestic purchasing power' represent money values divided by the domestic expenditure deflator. Series 'at 1975 export purchasing power' represent money values divided by the deflator for exports of goods and services excluding fuels. Expenditure, output and income Expenditures on GDP at 1975 market prices correspond exactly with Blue Book definitions, except for stockbuilding which includes the 53 residual error between compromise and expenditure estimates ofGDP. National income is defined as money domestic expenditure plus the current balance of payments, divided by the domestic expenditure deflator. The difference between national income and GD P at constant market prices therefore consists of net income from abroad plus the effect of changes in the domestic expenditure deflator relative to the GDP deflator (the terms of trade effect). Employment and unemployment Employment is defined as employees in employment, including HM forces, and unemployment as the annual average of monthly figures for UK wholly unemployed, excluding school leavers and adult students. Financial balances The private sector surplus includes the residual error between compromise and income estimates of GDP and, together with the public sector deficit, is measured before private sector payments of capital taxes. Costs and prices Money wage settlements are derived from CEPG's index of settlements. The real value of settlements is the real value of wage rates at the date of settlement. Earnings series refer to the whole economy. The weighted exchange rate is a weighted index of nominal rates for sterling in terms of other currencies (derived from the recently re-weighted and rebased effective exchange rate index produced by the Bank of England and published in Economic Trends). Export competitiveness is defined as UK business costs, adjusted for sales taxes on exports, relative to the world price of manufactured exports, measured in common currency. Public sector accounts Indirect taxes are shown net of subsidies; direct tax includes income tax, corporation tax and national insurance contributions. Tax revenues associated with the North Sea- corporation tax on North Sea profits, Petroleum Revenue Tax, Supplementary Petroleum Duty and royalties are shown as a separate series. Public sector property income comprises gross trading income after stock appreciation, rent (including the imputed charge for consumption of non-trading capital), dividends and interest. Expenditure on goods and services includes consumption, fixed investment and stockbuilding. Grants comprise current and capital grants to the private sector and current transfers abroad (including contributions to the EEC budget). Balance of payments Exports and imports of goods and services are shown in money terms divided by the deflator for non-fuel exports. They therefore include terms-oftrade or relative price effects vis-a-vis non-fuel exports. 'Other imports' comprise food, basic materials and services. Net income from abroad includes interest, profits, dividends and transfers. Net long-term capital comprises private direct investment, 'oil and miscellaneous' investment and official long-term capital transactions. North Sea account This account shows the allocation of revenue from sales of North Sea oil and gas between operating costs, tax revenue to the U~ government and posttax profits to UK and foreign companies. 54 Table A.l Historical Series 1963-1971 Expenditure, output, employment and prices ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1-96-3------1-9-64------1-9-6-5-----1-9-6-6-----1-9-6-7-----1-9-6-8-----1-9-6-9-----1-9-7-0-----1-9-7-1 Expenditure, output and income (£billion, at 1975 market prices) Consumers' expenditure Public consumption Private fixed investment Public fixed investment Stockbuilding 49.7 16.9 7.3 6.0 0.7 51.3 17.2 8.5 7. 0 2.2 52.1 17.6 8.9 7.4 1.7 53.2 18.1 8.7 7.9 1.1 54.4 19.1 9.1 9.0 0.5 56.0 19.2 9.8 9.0 1.0 56.3 18.8 10.4 8.6 1.6 57.8 19.1 10.7 8.8 1.4 59.7 19.7 11.1 8.6 -0.0 Exports of goods & servs 14.4 14.9 15.7 16.4 16.5 18.6 20.4 21.5 23.0 Imports of goods & servs----1--6-.6------1-8-.4------1-8-.5------1-9-.0------2-0-.4------2-2-.0------2-2-.6------2-3-.-8-----2-5-.-0 Gross domestic product 78.3 82.6 84.8 86.3 88.3 91.6 93.5 95.4 97.0 public services North Sea 11.0 0.0 11.1 0.0 11.2 0.0 11.9 o.o 11.8 0.0 12.0 0.0 11.9 o.o 12.2 o.o 12.6 0.1 other domestic output 67.3 71. 5 73.5 74.4 76.5 79.7 81.5 83.2 84.4 Net income from abroad Terms of trade effect National income 0.7 1.8 80.9 0.6 1.9 85.2 0.6 2.1 87.6 0.5 2.4 89.2 0.4 2.8 91.6 0.3 2.6 94.5 0.6 2.6 96.6 0.7 3.1 99.3 0.5 3.4 101.0 Employment and unemployment (millions) Public services Business employment 3.5 19.4 3.6 19.7 3.6 19.9 3.9 19.8 3.8 19.4 3.9 19.1 3.9 19.1 4.1 18.8 4.2 18.2 Total employment 22.9 23. 2 23.5 23.7 23.2 23.0 23. 0 22.8 22.5 Unemployment 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 Financial balances (£billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Private sector surplus Public sector deficit Current bal of payments 3. 3 2.3 2. 5 3.0 3.4 2. 5 1.3 1.5 3.6 3.0 3.2 2.7 2.7 4. 1 3.1 0.4 0.0 1.7 0.3 -0.9 -0.1 0. 3 -0.7 -0.5 1.0 1.5 1.9 Costs and prices (% increase over previous year) Real wage settlement Money wage settlement Average money earnings Consumer prices Post-tax real earnings 0. 2 3.1 -1.2 -3.6 1.3 -1.0 -2.4 5.6 5.1 2.6 6.7 5.1 1.9 5. 2 4.6 4.1 13.1 13.9 4.9 7.0 6.8 6.4 6. 2 7.8 7.2 12.9 11.3 1.9 3.5 4.9 4.0 2.6 4.7 5.7 5.9 8.4 3.3 2.8 -0.4 1.1 2.8 1.3 0.4 5.2 2.5 (Indices, 1975=100) Weighted exchange rate Export competitiveness 150.9 150.5 150.8 150.8 147.1 129.0 129.5 128.2 127.9 102.8 104.4 105.1 107.6 106.8 98.1 100.9 102.9 107.6 55 Table A.2 Historical Series 1963-1971 Public sector accounts, balance of payments and North Sea 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Public sector accounts (£billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Net indirect taxes 9.1 10.0 10.6 11.3 11.8 12.8 14.2 14.4 13.7 Direct tax & NI contribs North Sea tax revenue 12.3 o.o 12.8 0.0 14.0 0.0 14.8 o.o 16.3 o.o 17.3 o.o 17.9 0.0 19.3 o.o 18.9 0.0 Property income ------4-.3-------4-.5-------4-.7-------4-.8-------5-.1-------5-.6-------5-.8-------5-.-6------5-.-6 Total receipts 25.7 27. 2 29.3 30.9 33.3 35.8 37.9 39.3 38.2 Exp on goods & services 19.1 20.5 21.3 22.6 24.9 24.9 24.0 25.1 25.9 Grants 6.3 6.5 7.2 7.4 8.6 9.8 10.1 10.1 10.2 Debt interest ------3-.4-------3-.4-------3-.5-------3-.6-------3-.9-------4-.1-------4-.-2------4-.1-------3-.-9 Total outlays 28.7 30.4 32.0 33.6 37.4 38.8 38.3 39.3 39.9 Financial deficit 3.0 3.2 2.7 2.7 4.1 3.1 0.4 o.o 1.7 -B-o-r-ro-w--in-g---re-q--u-ir-e-m--e-n-t---------2-.2-------2-.5-------2-.9-------2-.2-------4-.2-------2-.8--------0-.9--------0-.0-------2-.-5 Balance of payments (£billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Non-fuel exports Exports of fuels 13.9 0.3 14.5 0.2 15.1 0.3 15.8 0.3 15.9 0.3 17.9 0.3 19.7 0.3 20.7 0.3 22.1 0.4 Imports: fuels finished manufactures semi-finished mfs other imports 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.9 3.6 3.6 3.9 4.4 2.4 3.0 2.8 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.0 9.4 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.7 10.0 10.4 10.9 11.1 Net income from abroad 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 Current balance Net long-term capital Basic balance 0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.8 -0.8 -1.7 -0.1 -0.8 -0.9 0.2 -0.6 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -1.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.8 0.9 -0.8 0.1 1.4 -0.9 0.5 1.9 -1.0 0.8 North Sea account (£billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Value of sales Operating costs UK tax revenue UK post-tax profits Post-tax profits abroad 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 o.o 0.0 o.o 0.0 o.o o.o 0.0 0.0 0.0 o.o 0.0 o.o 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 o.o 0.0 0.0 o.o 0.0 o.o 0.0 o.o 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 56 Table A.3 Historical Series 1972-1980 Expenditure, output, employment and prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Expenditure, output and income (£billion, at 1975 market prices) Consumers' expenditure Public consumption Private fixed investment Public fixed investment Stockbuilding 63.3 20.5 11.8 8.0 0.8 66.3 21.5 12.3 8.9 2.9 64.9 21.8 11.6 9.0 1.1 64.4 23.1 11.5 8.9 -2.3 64.6 23.6 11.8 8.8 -1.2 64.2 23.3 12.4 7.7 0.2 68.1 23.9 13.8 7.0 -0.1 70.8 24.3 13.8 6.7 1.1 71.7 24.6 13.4 6.5 -2.8 Exports of goods & servs 23.2 25.9 27.7 27.0 29.5 31.5 32.0 32.9 33.1 Imports of goods & servs-----2-7-.6------3-0-.9------3-1-.2------2-9-.0------3-0-.-2-----3-0-.-6-----3-1-.-8-----3-5-.-2-----3-4-.-1 Gross domestic product 99.9 106.9 104.8 103.6 107.0 108.8 112.9 114.4 112.3 public services 13.0 13.5 13.7 14.8 15.1 15.0 14.9 14.9 14.8 North Sea 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.2 3.2 3.1 other domestic output 86.8 93.2 90.9 88.7 91.2 92.1 95.7 96.3 94.4 Net income from abroad Terms of trade effect National income 0.5 4.2 104.6 1.2 2.2 110.3 1.3 -1.9 104.1 0.3 o.o 103.9 0.5 -0.7 106.7 -0.8 -0.3 107.7 -0.9 1.1 113.1 -1.1 2.5 115.7 -1.4 3.6 114.5 Employment and unemployment (millions) Public services Business employment Total employment 4.4 4.5 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 18.1 18.5 18.6 18.1 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 22.5 23.0 23.1 23.0 22.9 22.9 23.0 23.1 22.7 U--n-e-m-p-l-o-y-m-e-n-t------------------0-.9-------0-.6-------0-.6-------0-.9-------1-.3-------1-.4-------1-.4-------1-.-3------1-.-6 Financial balances (£billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Private sector surplus 4.1 3.9 2.9 6.9 7.1 5.0 6.8 4.8 7.7 Public sector deficit 3.8 5.5 7.1 8.6 8.1 5.2 6.3 5.9 6.5 C--u-r-r-e-n-t --b-a-l -o--f -p--ay-m--e-n-t-s -------0-.3-------1--.6-------4--.2-------1--.7-------1--.0-------0--.2-------0-.4-------1--.0-------1-.-2 Costs and prices (% increase over previous year) Real wage settlement Money wage settlement Average money earnings Consumer prices Post-tax real earnings 4.6 11.2 13.0 6.6 7.0 0.8 9.6 13.1 8.6 3.1 -1.8 15.8 20.6 17.3 0.2 4.4 32.4 29.0 23.6 0.2 -2.4 16.9 14.7 15.6 -2.1 -4.8 8.9 10.0 15.1 -3.1 2.8 11.3 13.9 8.6 6.7 5.8 16.9 15.9 12.9 3.9 2.4 17.3 20.0 15.0 3.9 (Indices, 1975=100) Weighted exchange rate Export competitiveness 123.3 111.8 108.3 100.0 109.1 100.7 96.2 100.0 84.7 94.4 80.4 81.6 87.8 96.4 95.5 100.0 108.4 119.9 57 Table A.4 Historical Series 1972-1980 Public sector accounts, balance of payments and North Sea 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 Public sector accounts (£billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Net indirect taxes 13.2 12.9 10.5 10.4 ll. 3 12.8 13.5 15.7 16.7 Direct tax & NI contribs 18.6 19.5 21.9 23.5 23.7 22.9 22.7 22.0 22.1 North Sea tax revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 Property income ------5-.7-------6-.4-------6-.5-------6-.2-------7-.2-------7-.3-------7-.4-------6-.8-------6-.-4 Total receipts 37.6 38.8 38.9 40.2 42.3 43.2 44.0 45.4 46.8 Exp on goods & services 26.5 28.5 29.7 32.4 32.4 29.6 29.9 30.3 31.7 Grants ll. 0 ll. 4 ll. 3 ll. 6 12.7 13.3 14.8 15.1 15.6 Debt interest ------3-.9-------4-.4-------5-.0-------4-.8-------5-.3-------5-.5-------5-.6-------5-.-9------6-.-0 Total outlays 41.4 44.3 46.0 48.8 50.4 48.4 50.3 51.3 53.2 Financial deficit Borrowing requirement 3.8 5.5 7.1 8.6 8.1 5.2 6.3 5.9 6.5 3.3 6.2 8.0 10.5 7.9 4.6 5.8 7.7 6.5 Balance of payments (£billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Non-fuel exports Exports of fuels 22.4 0.4 25.0 0.5 26.9 0.9 26.3 0.7 28.6 1.0 30.2 1.4 30.4 1.5 30.7 2.5 30.9 3.3 Imports: fuels finished manufactures semi-finished mfs other imports 1.6 5.6 4.3 ll. 4 2.0 7.4 5.6 13.4 5.0 7. 5 6.9 13.7 3.9 7.3 5.4 12.4 4.4 7.7 5.9 12.9 3.6 8.5 6.2 12.7 3.0 9.2 6.4 ll. 9 3.3 10.5 7. 2 12.1 3.5 9.7 6.9 11.3 Net income from abroad 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -1.1 -1.5 Current balance Net long-term capital Basic balance 0.3 -0.9 -0.7 -1.6 -2.2 -3.8 -4.1 -1.3 -5.4 -1.7 -0.0 -1.7 -0.9 -0.5 -1.5 -0.2 0.2 -0.0 0.4 -1.1 -0.7 -1.0 -2.4 -3.4 1.2 -1.6 -0.4 North Sea account (£billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Value of sales Operating costs UK tax revenue UK post-tax profits Post-tax profits abroad 0.2 0.2 0.2 0. 2 0.8 1.9 2.2 3.8 5.1 o.o 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 o.o 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 l.l 1.2 1.8 1.8 0.0 0.0 o.o 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.3 58 Table A.5 Base Projection Expenditure, output, employment and prices -----------------------------1-9-8-0-----1-9-8-1-----1-9-8-2-----1-9-8-3-----1-9-8-4-----1-9-8-5 Expenditure, output and income (£billion, at 1975 market prices) Consumers' expenditure Public consumption Private fixed investment Public fixed investment Stockbuilding 71.7 24.6 13.4 6.5 -2.8 71.6 24.7 11.8 6.2 -2.0 71.3 24.6 10.4 6.0 -1.7 71.2 24.6 9.8 5.9 -0.4 72.2 24.6 9.4 5.7 -0.1 73.1 24.6 9.3 5.5 -0.4 Exports of goods & servs 33.1 31.7 31.5 31.4 31.5 31.7 Imports of goods & servs-----3-4-.1------3-5-.6------3-6-.8------3-8-.-8-----4-0-.-8-----4-2-.-5 Gross domestic product 112.3 108.5 105.4 103.6 102.4 101.3 public services 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.6 North Sea 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.5 other domestic output 94.4 90.1 86.7 84.9 83.5 82.2 Net income from abroad Terms of trade effect National income -1.4 3.6 114.5 -0.7 5.3 113.1 -0.7 6.2 110.9 -0.6 7.3 110.3 -0.8 8.2 109.9 -1.0 9.0 109.4 Employment and unemployment (millions) Public services Business employment Total employment 5. 2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 -----1-7-.5------1-7-.0------1-6-.6------1-6-.-3-----1-6-.-0-----1-5-.-7 22.7 22.2 21.8 21. 5 21.1 20.8 Unemployment 1.6 2.6 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.3 Financial balances (£billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Private sector surplus Public sector deficit Current bal of payments 7.7 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.2 6.5 4.8 5.1 6.0 6.8 7.0 1.2 0.8 0.2 -0.8 -1.9 -2.8 Costs and prices (% increase over previous year) Real wage settlement Money wage settlement Average money earnings Consumer prices Post-tax real earnings 2.4 17.3 20.0 15.0 3.9 -4.6 10.8 15.0 13.7 -1.2 -0.2 13.3 13.0 11.3 0.4 0.2 10.6 14.5 9.8 4.4 0.3 9.6 13.2 9.2 3.7 0.1 8.9 10.8 8.7 1.9 (Indices, 1975=100) Weighted exchange rate Export competitiveness 96.4 98.0 98.0 98.0 98.0 98.0 119.9 127.3 131.1 134.1 136.4 138.1 59 Table A.6 Base Projection Public sector accounts, balance of payments and North Sea 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Public sector accounts (£billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Net indirect taxes Direct tax & NI contribs North Sea tax revenue Property income 16.7 22.1 1.6 6.4 17.2 22.8 2.9 6.1 17.3 22.9 2.9 5.7 17.2 22.9 3.2 5.4 17.3 22.9 3.4 5.2 17.4 22.8 3.7 5.1 Total receipts 46.8 48.9 48.8 48.7 48.7 49.0 Exp on goods & services Grants Debt interest 31.7 15.6 6.0 31.4 16.6 5.7 31.5 17.3 5.1 32.5 17.5 4.7 33.3 17.6 4.5 33.5 18.0 4.6 Total outlays 53. 2 53.8 54.0 54.7 55.5 56.0 Financial deficit Borrowing requirement 6.5 4.8 5.1 6.0 6.8 7.0 6.5 4.8 5.1 5.9 6.7 7.0 Balance of payments (£billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Non-fuel exports Exports of fuels 30.9 3.3 29.3 3.5 28.'8 3.8 28.6 4.1 28.5 4.3 28.7 4.4 Imports: fuels finished manufactures semi-finished mfs other imports 3.5 9.7 6.9 11.3 2.6 10.6 6.8 11.1 2.0 11.4 7.2 10.9 1.8 12.2 7.8 11.0 1.8 13.1 8.3 11.0 1.9 13.8 8.6 11.0 Net income from abroad -1.5 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.9 -1.2 Current balance Net long-term capital Basic balance 1.2 -1.6 -0.4 0.9 -2.0 -1.1 0.3 -2.3 -2.0 -0.9 -2.2 -3.1 -2.2 -1.9 -4.1 -3.4 -1.5 -4.8 North Sea account (£billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Value of sales ------5-.1-------5-.6-------6-.1-------6-.5-------6-.9-------7-.-5 Operating costs 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 UK tax revenue 1.6 3.2 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.5 UK post-tax profits 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.5 Post-tax profits abroad 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 ∑ 60 Table A.7 Pre-Budget Fiscal Policy Expenditure, output, employment and prices 1980 19tll 1962 1983 1984 1985 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Expenditure, output and income (£billion, at 1975 market prices) Consumers' expenditure Public consumption Private fixed investment Public fixed investment Stockbuilding 71.7 24.6 13.4 6.5 -2.8 72.0 24.7 11.9 6.2 -1.7 71.1 24.6 10.8 6.0 -1.0 70.3 24.6 10.4 5.9 -0.0 70.4 24.6 10.1 5.7 0.1 70.5 24.6 10.0 5.5 -0.2 Exports of goods servs 33.1 31.9 32.3 33.2 34.3 35.5 ''Imports of goods servs-----3-4-.1------3-5-.6------3-6-.3------3-7-.-5-----3-8-.-6-----3-9-.-8 Gross domestic product 112.3 109.4 107.6 106.9 106.5 106.1 public services 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.6 North Sea 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.5 other domestic output 94.4 91.0 88.9 88.1 87.6 87.0 Net income from abroad Terms of trade effect National income -1.4 3.6 114.5 -0.7 4.9 113.6 -0.9 4.6 111.3 -1.1 4.6 110.4 -1.3 4.6 109.9 -1.4 4.7 109.4 Employment and unemployment (millions) Public services Business employment Total employment 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 17.5 17.0 16.7 16.5 16.2 16.0 ------------------------------------------------ 22.7 22.2 21.9 21.6 21.3 21.1 Unemployment 1.6 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.0 Financial balances (£billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Private sector surplus Public sector deficit Current bal of payments 7.7 5.9 5.6 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.5 5.4 5.8 6.3 7.0 7.1 1.2 0.5 -0.3 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 Costs and prices (% increase over previous year) Real wage settlement Money wage settlement Average money earnings Consumer prices Post-tax real earnings 2.4 17.3 20.0 15.0 3.9 -4.1 9.9 14.7 13.5 0. 2 0.9 15.1 14.4 13.5 0.4 0.9 15.4 18.8 14.5 3.7 0.7 16.2 19.6 15.6 3.4 0.4 16.7 18.4 16.4 1.7 (Indices, 1975=100) Weighted exchange rate Export competitiveness 96.4 95.0 87.4 80.4 74.0 68.0 119.9 123.8 120.0 117.9 116.8 116.6 - 61 Table A.8 Pre-Budget Fiscal Policy Public sector accounts, balance of payments and North Sea 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Public sector accounts (Ebillion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Net indirect taxes Direct tax & NI contribs North Sea tax revenue Property income 16. 7 22.1 1.6 6.4 17.1 22.1 3.0 6.2 17.0 21.8 3. 2 5.9 16.9 21.8 3.7 5.6 16.8 21.7 4.0 5.5 16.8 21.6 4.5 5.3 Total receipts 46.8 48.3 47.9 48.0 48.0 48.3 Exp on goods & services Grants Debt interest 31.7 15.6 6.0 31.5 16.6 5.7 31.4 17.0 5.3 32.3 16.8 5.2 33.1 16.7 5.2 33.1 16.8 5.4 Total outlays 53. 2 53.7 53.7 54.3 55.0 55.4 Financial deficit Borrowing requirement 6.5 5.4 5.8 6.3 7.0 7.1 6.5 5.4 5.8 6.3 7.0 7.1 Balance of payments (Ebillion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Non-fuel exports Exports of fuels 30.9 3. 3 29.5 3.5 29.7 4.1 30.4 4.6 31.4 4.9 32.5 5.1 Imports: fuels finished manufactures semi-finished mfs other imports 3.5 9.7 6.9 11. 3 2.8 10.8 7.0 11. 2 2. 4 ll. 7 7.7 11. 3 2.2 12.5 8. 3 11.5 2.4 13.3 8.8 ll. 5 2.6 14.0 9.0 11.6 Net income from abroad -1.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 Current balance Net long-term capital Basic balance 1.2 -1.6 -0.4 0.6 -2.0 -1.4 -0.3 -2.1 -2.4 -0.8 -l. 8 -2.6 -1.1 -1.4 -2.5 -l. 2 -l.l -2.3 North Sea account (Ebillion, at 1975 export purcnasing power) Value of sales 5.1 5.7 6.5 7. 1 7.8 8.5 ------------------------------------------------ Operating costs 0. 3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 UK tax revenue 1.6 3. 2 3. 5 4.1 4.6 5.2 UK post-tax profits 1.8 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.7 Post-tax profits abroad 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 l.l 62 Table A.9 Reflation Expenditure, output, employment and prices 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Expenditure, output and income (£billion, at 1975 market prices) Consumers' expenditure Public consumption Private fixed investment Public fixed investment Stockbuilding 71.7 24.6 13.4 6.5 -2.8 72.5 25.4 12.0 6.4 -1.3 73.4 27.6 11.4 6.8 0. 2 74.8 28. 7 11.6 6.8 1.4 77.2 29.6 12.0 6.8 0.9 79.8 31.5 12.6 7.1 1.1 Exports of goods & servs Imports of goods & servs 33.1 34.1 31.9 36.1 32.4 38.5 33.5 40.8 35.0 42.6 36.5 45.5 Gross domestic product public services North Sea other domestic output 112.3 14.8 3.1 94.4 110.8 15.3 3.5 91.9 113.4 16.6 3.9 92.9 116.1 17. 2 4.0 94.9 118.8 17.6 4.2 96.9 123.1 18.7 4.5 99.9 Net income from abroad Terms of trade effect National income -1.4 3.6 114.5 -0.7 4.9 115.0 -1.1 4.8 117.0 -1.7 4.7 119.1 -2.3 4.5 120.9 -3.0 4.4 124.5 Employment and unemployment (millions) Public services Business employment Total employment 5.2 5.4 5. 8 6.0 6.2 6.5 17.5 17.0 16.7 16.4 16.2 16.0 ------------------------------------------------ 22.7 22.4 22.5 22.4 22.4 22.6 Unemployment 1.6 2. 4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 Financial balances (£billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Private sector surplus 7.7 6.3 6.6 6. 0 6.2 6.1 Public sector deficit 6. 5 6. 2 8.9 10.3 11. 7 13.7 Current bal of payments 1.2 0.1 -2.4 -4.3 -5.5 -7.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Costs and prices (% increase over previous year) Real wage settlement Money wage settlement Average money earnings Consumer prices Post-tax real earnings 2.4 17.3 20.0 15.0 3.9 -3.9 9.0 14.4 13.1 1.3 1.6 12.1 13.2 12.0 3.5 1.4 12.4 16.8 12.6 5.0 1.2 13.9 17.9 13.9 4. 4 1.3 14.1 17.0 14.5 4.0 (Indices, 1975;100) Weighted exchange rate Export competitiveness 96.4 95.0 87.4 80.4 74.0 68.0 119.9 123.5 118.5 114.7 112.1 110.3 ∑ 63 Table A.lO Reflation Public sector accounts, balance of payments and North Sea 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Public sector accounts (£billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Net indirect taxes Direct tax & NI contribs North Sea tax revenue Property income 16.7 22.1 1.6 6.4 17.3 21.7 3.0 6.3 17.9 20.3 3.3 6.5 18.3 19.9 3.8 6.7 18.7 19.6 4.2 6.9 19.5 18.9 4.8 7.2 Total receipts 46.8 48.3 48.0 48.8 49.4 50.5 Exp on goods & services Grants Debt interest 31.7 15.6 6.0 32.4 16.5 5.6 35.2 16.5 5.3 37.4 16.2 5.4 39.4 16.0 5.8 42.0 15.8 6.4 Total outlays 53.2 54.5 56.9 59.0 61.2 64.2 Financial deficit Borrowing requirement 6.5 6.2 8.9 10.3 11.7 13.7 6.5 6.2 8.9 10.2 11.7 13.7 Balance of payments (£billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Non-fuel exports Exports of fuels 30.9 3.3 29.5 3.5 29.8 4.1 30.7 4.6 32.0 5.0 33.6 5.3 Imports: fuels finished manufactures semi-finished mfs other imports 3.5 9.7 6.9 11.3 2.8 10.9 7.1 11.3 2.7 12.5 8.3 11.7 2.8 14.0 9.3 12.1 3.2 15.3 9.8 12.4 3.8 16.9 10.6 12.8 Net income from abroad -1.5 -0.8 -1.2 -1.8 -2.6 -3.4 Current balance Net long-term capital Basic balance 1.2 -1.6 -0.4 0.1 -2.0 -1.9 -2.6 -2.0 -4.6 -4.7 -1.2 -5.9 -6.2 -0.1 -6.3 -8.6 1.1 -7.5 North Sea account (£billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Value of sales Operating costs 5.1 5.7 6.6 7.2 8.0 8.8 -----------------------------------------------0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 UK tax revenue 1.6 3.2 3.6 4.2 4.7 5.4 UK post-tax profits 1.8 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.8 Post-tax profits abroad 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 ∑ 64 Table A.ll Devaluation Expenditure, output, employment and prices 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Expenditure, output and income (£billion, at 1975 market prices) Consumers' expenditure Public consumption Private fixed investment Public fixed investment Stockbuilding 71.7 24.6 13.4 6.5 -2.8 70.4 24.6 12.1 6.2 -1.6 69.7 25.6 11.0 6.3 -0.3 68.9 26.1 11.0 6.2 1.0 69.5 27.1 11.1 6.3 1.0 71.0 27.9 11.3 6.3 1.0 Exports of goods & servs Imports of goods & servs 33.1 34.1 32.4 34.6 33.5 35.6 35.2 36.7 37.4 37.8 39.6 39.8 Gross domestic product public services North Sea other domestic output 112.3 14.8 3.1 94.4 109.5 14.8 3.5 91.1 110.2 15.4 3.9 90.9 111.6 15.6 4.0 92.0 114.5 16.1 4.2 94.2 117.3 16.6 4.5 96.3 Net income from abroad Terms of trade effect National income -1.4 3.6 114.5 -0.8 3.5 112.2 -1.1 2.9 112.1 -1.3 2.2 112.5 -1.6 1.2 114.1 -1.8 1.1 116.6 Employment and unemployment (millions) Public services Business employment Total employment 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.8 17.5 17.0 16.8 16.5 16.3 16.1 -----------------------------------------------22.7 22.2 22.2 22.0 21.9 21.9 Unemployment 1.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 Financial balances (£billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Private sector surplus Public sector deficit Current bal of payments 7.7 6.0 6.6 6.9 8.2 8.6 6.5 5.5 6.9 7.6 9.0 9.5 1.2 0.5 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 Costs and prices (% increase over previous year) Real wage settlement Money wage settlement Average money earnings Consumer prices Post-tax real earnings 2.4 17.3 20.0 15.0 3.9 -3.2 13.8 17.7 17.1 -0.3 1.5 18.3 18.4 17.2 2.0 1.6 20.0 24.0 19.5 4.4 1.8 22.8 26.8 22.6 4.7 0.8 22.4 24.9 22.7 2.8 (Indices, 1975=100) Weighted exchange rate Export competitiveness 96.4 86.5 75.2 64.0 53.0 46.2 119.9 116.2 110.5 105.1 100.0 100.0 65 Table A.l2 Devaluation Public sector accounts, balance of payments and North Sea 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Public sector accounts (£billion, at 1975 domestic purchasing power) Net indirect taxes Direct tax & NI contribs North Sea tax revenue Property income 16.7 22.1 1.6 6.4 16.8 21.9 3.2 6.0 17.0 21.1 3. 5 6.0 17.0 20.9 4.2 5.9 17.1 20.4 4.7 6.0 17.6 20.0 5.3 6.3 Total receipts 46.8 48.0 47.6 47.9 48.1 49.2 Exp on goods & services Grants Debt interest 31.7 15.6 6.0 31.3 16. 2 5.9 32.6 16. 2 5.7 34.0 15.8 5.7 36.1 15.2 5.9 37.3 15.3 6.1 Total outlays 53. 2 53.4 54.5 55.5 57. 2 58.7 Financial deficit Borrowing requirement 6.5 5. 5 6.9 7.6 9.0 9.5 6.5 5.5 6.9 7.5 9.0 9.5 Balance of payments (£billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Non-fuel exports Exports of fuels 30.9 3. 3 30.0 3. 8 30.8 4.3 32.3 5.0 34.5 5.6 36.7 5.7 Imports: fuels finished manufactures semi-finished mfs other imports 3.5 9.7 6.9 11. 3 2.9 10.7 7.2 11.4 2.7 11.8 8.1 11.7 2.8 12.8 9.0 12.1 3.3 13.8 9.7 12.4 3.8 14.8 10.1 12.6 Net income from abroad -1.5 -0.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.8 -2.0 Current balance Net long-term capital Basic balance 1.2 -1.6 -0.4 0.5 -1.9 -1.3 -0.3 -1.9 -2.2 -0.7 -1.5 -2.3 -0.9 -1.1 -2.0 -0.9 -0.8 -1.8 North Sea account (£billion, at 1975 export purchasing power) Value of sales ------5-.1-------6-. -1------7-. -0------7-.8-------8-.-8------9-.-6 Operating costs 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 UK tax revenue 1.6 3.4 3.8 4.6 5. 2 5.9 UK post-tax profits 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.0 Post-tax profits abroad 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 66 Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Statistical Appendix Historical data and projections for the UK economy Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Members of the CEPG Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Cambridge Economic Policy Review Volume 7 No 1, pages 53 - 66 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource April 1981